Brewers vs Reds Odds and Picks – Houser vs Hoffman (May 21)
- The Milwaukee Brewers are -114 road favorites over the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night at the Great American Ball Park
- Adrian Houser (3-4, 3.63 ERA) will start for the Brewers against Jeff Hoffman (2-3, 4.67)
- A look at the Brewers-Reds matchup with a prediction can be found below
Two teams coming off getting swept will try to turn things around when the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Cincinnati Reds at 7:10 p.m. ET Friday in the opener of a three-game series at the Great American Ball Park.
Adrian Houser (3-4, 3.63 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Brewers, who are favored, against Jeff Hoffman (2-3, 4.67)
The Brewers (21-22) lost a two-game set to the Royals in Kansas City on Tuesday and Wednesday. Milwaukee has also lost five of its last six games and is 4-12 since starting the season 17-10.
The Reds (19-23) were pounded in a four-game series at home by the San Francisco Giants that ended Thursday, getting outscored 33-9. The sweep dropped Cincinnati to a season-worst four games under .500
Brewers vs Reds Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | -114 | -1.5 (+138) | Over 9 (-107) |
| Cincinnati Reds | -103 | +1.5 (+165) | Under 9 (-114) |
Odds as of May 21st.
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Short Day for Houser
Houser is coming off the shortest of his eight starts this season when he lasted just three innings against the Atlanta Braves last Friday in Milwaukee. He allowed just two runs and two hits but had a career-high five walks and three strikeouts.
Houser has done a good job of keeping the Brewers in ballgames. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his eight starts.
Houser also prepares well.
Brewers Backstage: Adrian Houser
Ever wonder how an MLB pitcher prepares for their next start?
Go behind-the-scenes of a real MLB bullpen session with Adrian Houser in our latest Brewers Backstage 🎬 pic.twitter.com/hs86gWvOgE
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) May 13, 2021
However, durability has been an issue. His season high for innings pitched is six, which he has done twice.
The Reds have given Houser trouble in his career as he is 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA against them in seven games, including four starts.
Perhaps pitching at hitter friendly Great American Ball Park will help Houser at the plate. Houser has hit the first two home runs of his career this season to go with a .231 batting average.
Reds Career Stats vs Houser
| Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 10 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | .500 |
| Nick Senzel | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Nick Castellanos | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | .364 |
| Tyler Naquin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Eugenio Suarez | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | .455 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tucker Barnhart | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .500 |
| Jonathan India | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
The Reds scored four runs or less in all four losses to the Giants after averaging 6.9 runs in their previous seven games.
Mike Moustakas (right heel contusion) was placed on the 10-day injured list prior to Thursday’s game while Nick Senzel (sore knee) sat out a third straight game. Senzel is expected to return Friday.
Mike Moustakas hadn’t started a game since last Friday. #Reds https://t.co/QjDHJufvYx
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) May 20, 2021
Moustakas has shifted from third base to first base since Joey Votto sustained a fractured left thumb May 6. Senzel had moved from center field to third base to fill for Moustakas. The Reds have used five different starting first baseman in 13 games during Votto’s absence.
Hoffman Struggling
Hoffman has struggled since beginning the season 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA in his first three starts. He is 0-2 with a 6.05 ERA in his last five.
Hoffman had a no-decision in his previous start against the Rockies in Colorado on Sunday, giving up five runs (two earned) and four hits in four innings while striking out five and walking three. It marked the fourth straight start in which he failed to pitch more than four innings.
This why it’s hard to give up on Hoffman, though.
What does 99.8 from Jeff Hoffman look like at @DrivelineBB? pic.twitter.com/VkJB4jOaBH
— Jon Sciambi (@BoogSciambi) January 31, 2019
The Reds acquired Hoffman from the Rockies during the offseason for right-hander Robert Stephenson in a classic challenge trade. Neither pitcher had lived up to their promise as first-round draft choices.
Hoffman has made two career starts against the Brewers, going 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA. Both those games came when Hoffman pitched for the Rockies, the first in 2016 and the other in 2019.
Brewers Career Stats vs Hoffman
| Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolten Wong | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Christian Yelich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| Avisail Garcia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Travis Shaw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Luis Urias | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
The Brewers have had trouble scoring the last two weeks, held to four runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games and 11 of their past 13.
Shortstop Luis Urias is expected to back in the lineup after being benched in favor of the lovable Pablo Reyes on Wednesday. Urias has made two errors in each of his last two games and is 0 for 2 in each of his last three games.
Craig Counsell on Luis Urías’ tough day at shortstop: pic.twitter.com/vt1edDYLHh
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) May 16, 2021
Second baseman Kolten Wong has multiple hits in five of his last 10 games. He is 13 for 43 (.302) with four doubles in that span.
Losers Last Time
The Brewers lost 6-4 to the Royals on Thursday night, though starter Corbin Burnes left with a 3-2 lead after allowing just two hits in six innings.
The Brewers bullpen gave up four runs, including Jorge Soler’s tying leadoff shot off J.P. Feyereisen in the seventh. Nicky Lopez’s bunt single later in the inning put the Royals ahead to stay.
Hello, Jorge!#TogetherRoyal pic.twitter.com/gzJO3b6wj6
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 20, 2021
The Brewers were within two runs in the ninth, but Omar Narvaez struck out with two runners on base against Josh Staumont to end the game.
The Reds were routed 19-4 by the Giants on Thursday. Starter and loser Tyler Mahle was rocked for seven runs, seven hits and two walks in two-plus innings.
Steven Duggar hit his first career grand slam off Michael “Big Mike” Feliz in a nine-run third inning for the Giants. Brandon Crawford drove in six runs.
T-teach me how to Duggy pic.twitter.com/AbU9uK3E9b
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) May 20, 2021
Winker Shined in 2020
This is the first of 19 games between the first NL Central rivals this season.
The Reds won last year’s season series 6-4 behind left fielder Jesse Winker, who was 12 for 27 (.444) with two doubles and four home runs. The Brewers won the season series for three straight years from 2017-19 with a combined 35-22 record.
Look for the Brewers to get back to that 2017-19 form against the Reds in this one as fading Hoffman seems like the logical play.
The Pick: Brewers (-114)
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
