Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Reds All See Their World Series Odds Get Worse; Is There Any True Contender in the NL Central?
- The National League Central Division is awash in mediocrity
- None of the five teams are more than five games above .500
- The World Series odds of the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, and Cincinnati Reds have all grown longer
A glance at how the National League Central Division is playing out this season is reminiscent of that infamous remark manager Casey Stengel made about his 1962 New York Mets as they went about the business of losing a major-league record 120 games.
Can’t anybody here play this game?
Now, no one is comparing any of the NL Central teams to the 1962 Mets. They aren’t that bad. On the other hand, none of them conjure up memories of the 1927 Yankees.
The NL Central is awash in mediocrity, and oddsmakers are taking notice of this malady. The average World Series odds of the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, and Cincinnati Reds have all lengthened across a number of top online sportsbooks.
2019 World Series Odds for NL Central Teams
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | +2000 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +2200 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +4500 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +7000 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +8000 |
*Odds taken on 07/04/19
The Cubs jumped from +1400 to +1700. The Brewers chances increased to +2000 from +1700. The slumping Cardinals skidded all the way from +2200 to +4000. And the Reds inched up from +6000 to +7000.
Only the Pirates, who went from +17500 to +8000, registered improvement, but Pittsburgh remains the longest shot in the division to win it all.
Central Cooling
The NL Central was viewed at the start of the season as perhaps baseball’s most competitive division and in a sense, that’s being proven correct. Sadly, though, it’s because all five teams are treading water.
At this very moment, five of the six division leaders in baseball are at least 4.5 games ahead of the second-place team.
And then there's the NL Central, where 4.5 games separate first place from last place.
Yep. pic.twitter.com/0ROdjv1Uot
— Ryan Fagan (@ryanfagan) July 4, 2019
If the division-leading Brewers were in the NL East, they’d be five games out of first. Were they situated in the NL West, the gap would be 12.5 games. The Reds are four games below .500 and just 4.5 games out of first place.
Only the Pirates (7-3) show a winning record in the past 10 games.
It’s a Sad Situation
The Pirates (4.76), Cardinals (4.46) and Reds (4.33) are all below the NL average runs per game of 4.78, and the Brewers (4.80) are just a notch above it.
The NL Central is the greatest divisional race in al of baseball with all 5 teams within 4.5 games of 1st place after #Reds victory today over #Brewers
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 4, 2019
On the mound, the Cubs (1.332), Brewers (1.335) and Pirates (1.427) are all above the NL average WHIP of 1.324. Two NL Central teams – the Brewers (-0.2) and Pirates (-3.7) – show negative WAR ratings. St. Louis barely gets a positive WAR at 0.1.
"So who wants to win the NL Central?"
NL Central teams: https://t.co/XDn88KPTI5
— Nathan Marzion (@nathanmarzion) July 4, 2019
The Pirates (58) and Cubs (60) are 13th and 14th in the 15-team NL in errors. The New York Mets (.980) own the worst fielding percentage in the NL, just a tick below Pittsburgh (.981) and two ticks worse than the Cubs (.982).
FanGraphs No Fan of NL Central
The beauty of baseball is that you can measure probability with numbers. That’s precisely what they do at FanGraphs, where they break things down via statistical analysis, graphs, and projections.
And the NL Central does not project very well at all.
Watching the NL Central teams battle for first place: pic.twitter.com/DnW9R5inKT
— The Tomfoolery of Professor John Frink (@Frustrated_Fan) June 26, 2019
They put the Cubs with the best chance of winning the World Series at 5.5%. By comparison, the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves are given a 6.5% chance and the NL West leaders the Los Angeles Dodgers are at 19.4%.
But wait – it gets worse. The Brewers are at 2.2%. The Cardinals register at 0.7%, while the Pirates and Reds both check in at 0.3%.
Not one NL Central team had a winning record in June.
Brewers 13-13
Cardinals 13-13
Cubs 14-15
Reds 11-13
Pirates 11-15— Matt Snyder (@MattSnyderCBS) July 1, 2019
The Cubs are projected to win the division with 86 victories. Then again, the 2006 Cardinals captured the World Series off an 83-win campaign.
So you’re saying there’s still a chance?
No, we’re saying bet on an NL Central team to win the World Series and you’ll be throwing your money away.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
