Cubs vs Nationals Predictions, Odds & Player Props (May 4)
- Chicago is a -215 moneyline favorite in the Cubs vs Nationals odds on Thursday
- Chicago has lost five of six to drop below .500 for the first time all season
- Check out the Cubs vs Nationals predictions, probable pitchers and player prop picks below
After roaring out of the gates, the Cubs have hit the wall. They’ve dropped fix of their last six games, and to make matters worse, each of those losses have been to teams with two of the four worst run differentials in the NL (Miami and Florida).
Fortunately for Chicago, a date with the Nationals Patrick Corbin is just what the doctor ordered. Corbin has been one of the worst starters in MLB over the past few seasons, and 2023 is no exception.
Cubs vs Nationals Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | -215 | -1.5 (-120) | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Washington Nationals | +180 | +1.5 (+180) | U 8.5 (-110) |
As a result, the Cubs are -215 moneyline favorites in Thursday’s MLB odds. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 pm ET at Nationals Park in Washington, DC, with a sun-cloud mix, and 63 degree temperatures in the forecast.
Odds as of May 3rd at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.
Cubs vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
Over the past four seasons, Corbin has compiled a 18-46 record for Washington. Not exactly a great return on their $140 million investment. Corbin has coughed up 24 runs through six starts in 2023, which is three more runs than strikeouts.
He’s yielded a dismal 1.66 WHIP, and much like the last few seasons has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard. The lefty has surrendered six home runs so far, after allowing 64 combined in 2021 and 2022.
Happy Fade Patrick Corbin Day to all who observe! pic.twitter.com/4LAUaBpi8c
— Full Slate Podcast (@Full_Slate_Pod) April 29, 2023
Corbin has plenty of history versus the Chicago hitters in the MLB lineups, and the results have not been favorable for him. Cubs batters are slashing .284/.376/.441 versus Corbin over 102 at-bats, with Nico Hoerner, Trey Mancini and Ian Happ doing the bulk of the damage. The trio is 11-for-22 combined against Corbin, good for a .500 average.
Taillon vs Corbin Stats
| 0-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 4.50 | ERA | 5.74 |
| 1.36 | WHIP | 1.66 |
| .263 | OBA | .316 |
| 4.0 | SO/W Ratio | 2.3 |
As for Chicago, Jameson Taillon will return from the IL list to make his fourth start of the season. The righty is off to a disappointing start to his Cubs tenure, allowing eight runs over his first 12 innings of work.
Taillon hasn’t pitched since April 15th due to a groin injury, while Chicago is 0-3 in his three starts, getting outscored 19-7.
Cubs vs Nationals Predictions
Chicago’s offense has disappeared over their recent skid, scoring three or fewer runs in four of the six outings. They managed only six hits on Wednesday versus the Nats, plating a single run for the second straight game. Obviously facing Corbin is a plus matchup, but the way they’ve hit lefties this season, nearly any opposing southpaw would be in trouble.
Chicago is slashing .290/.357/.494 versus lefties in 2023. They have a home run rate of 4.8% in those 314 at-bats, which is significantly higher than their 3.2% mark versus righties. The Cubs lead the National League in batting average and OPS, and rank second in runs per game.
Back to Corbin for a moment, as we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention his hard hit rate. Opponents are making hard contact against him 44% of the time, which is one of the worst marks of his career. To make matters worse, his fastball velocity is down a full mile per hour from last year, sitting at just 91.7.
As for Washington, they should be set-up for success versus Taillon as well given his underwhelming form. The Nats may be the NL’s second lowest scoring team, but that won’t stop us from targeting the over in this contest.
Cubs vs Nationals 2023 Head-to-Head Results
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | Chicago Cubs | Washington Nationals | WAS, 2-1 |
| May 2 | Chicago Cubs | Washington Nationals | WAS, 4-1 |
| May 1 | Chicago Cubs | Washington Nationals | CHC, 5-1 |
Washington has been one of MLB’s most profitable under teams to bet on (60%) so far this season, except when Corbin is on the mound. Five of his six starts have produced at least nine runs, while both of his last two appearances versus the Cubs have as well.
Picks:
- Over 8.5 (-110)
- Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-134)
- Nico Hoerner 2+ Hits (+130)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
