Cubs vs Pirates Picks and Odds – Sep. 3

• The Chicago Cubs will visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday, Sep. 3rd, at 1:35 PM ET
• The Cubs will send Alec Mills to the mound while the Pirates will go with J.T. Brubaker
• The Cubs have won seven of the last 10 meetings between the teams heading into action on Wednesday

The first and last-place teams in the National League Central will clash on Thursday afternoon when the Chicago Cubs visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 pm ET, Sep. 3rd). The Cubs will put Alec Mills on the mound against J.T. Brubaker of the Pirates. Which team has the upper hand in the showdown? Let’s take a closer look at the Cubs vs Pirates odds.

Cubs vs Pirates Odds

Odds taken Sep 2nd.

Mills Has Been Up-and-Down

Alec Mills’ pitching stats on the year show a weird divergence. On one hand, his 5.23 ERA looks lofty, but on the other hand, his 1.16 WHIP is very respectable. What gives? The main issue has been home runs. He’s not giving up a ton of hits, but when batters are connecting, they’re connecting with power.

Mills is coming off an outing in which he gave up three home runs in just three innings of work against the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday. He’s now given up at least one home run in five of his six starts this year. He’s allowed 28 hits in 32.2 innings of work but seven of those hits – one in four – are leaving the yard.

Cubs Career Stats vs Brubaker

Brubaker Showing Promise in Rookie Campaign

J.T. Brubaker missed most of last season after dealing with some forearm and elbow issues but he has been decent in 2019. On the year, he has a 4.50 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 22/10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s transitioned into a starter and has only made four starts so far (six outings overall).

Brubaker has been decent in his last two outings, albeit on a short leash. He lasted five innings on Saturday against Milwaukee, giving up just two earned runs. He lasted four innings the Sunday prior – also against Milwaukee – while giving up just two earned runs. He’s making batters miss, recording 12 strikeouts in the last two starts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcKRkPjOH_E

Brubaker has faced the Cubs once this season, which came all the way back on August 1st. He lasted three innings in relief duty, giving up just one hit, one walk, and no runs.

Pirates Career Stats vs Mills

What’s the Best Bet?

I’ll be looking at an under in this game once the run total is posted, as both starting pitchers point in that direction. Opposing batters are hitting just .213 against Mills this season on the road and, while he has some problems with home runs, the Pirates are 26th in home runs this seaso; maybe that’s less of an issue here.

As for Brubaker, we have fewer statistics to work with, but he managed the Cubs pretty well in his first meeting with them and he’s been passable as a starter so far. I’m looking for a low-scoring affair on Thursday.