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Cubs vs Reds Picks and Odds – July 30

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in MLB Baseball

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 2:56 PM PST

Cubs pitcher Jon Lester
Cubs pitcher Jon Lester delivering a pitch. Photo by Arturo Pardavila III (Wiki Commons).
  • Yu Darvish and the Chicago Cubs are in Cincinnati to face Luis Castillo and the Reds on July 30th at 6:10 pm ET
  • Chicago can take the series with a win, while the Reds are looking to split the four-game set
  • In the article below, check out the odds, analysis and a pick for the game

The Chicago Cubs look to salvage a series win on Thursday against NL Central rival Cincinnati Reds at 6:10 pm ET at Great American Ballpark.

Cincinnati snapped a four-game losing streak with a win on Wednesday and could move within a game of first in the division with another one.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total at FanDuel
Cincinnati Reds -122 -1.5 (+154) Over 9 (-110)
Chicago Cubs +106 +1.5 (-180) Under 9 (-110)

Odds taken July 29

About Last Night

The Reds won a wild and weird game on Wednesday, 12-7, after mounting a nine-run lead through five innings and are favored tonight in the Cubs vs Reds odds.

Nicholas Castellanos stayed hot for the Reds, extending his hit streak to six games with a 2-for-3 effort that included two runs scored and four RBIs.

Cincinnati’s massive lead began to erode with its bullpen, which allowed five earned runs on six hits and three walks in 2 1/3 innings.

Interestingly enough, both teams have had horrendous bullpens so far. The Cubs’ relievers have a league-worst 9.00 ERA, while the Reds’ relievers rank 22nd with a 5.06 ERA.

Reds Career Stats vs Darvish

Player AB HR RBI AVG.
Jesse Winker 8 0 0 .000
Shogo Akiyama 0 0 0 .000
Joey Votto 20 1 2 .250
Nicholas Castellanos 3 0 0 .000
Tucker Barnhardt 12 1 2 .333
Mike Moustakas 9 1 2 .333
Nick Senzel 12 0 1 .333
Eugenio Suarez 20 1 4 .250
Freddy Galvis 6 0 1 .167
Aristides Aquino 5 2 4 .400

Darvish a Familiar Face for Cubs

If you notice the above chart, several Reds have had at least a handful of looks at Yu Darvish, with mostly positive results.

And it’s true, Darvish hasn’t been very inspiring in recent outings against the Reds. His past five starts against Cincinnati — all that came last season — resulted in a 1-2 record and 4.60 ERA. He also allowed seven homers total in those games.

Darvish’s first start of 2020 wasn’t to his liking either, as he lasted just four innings against the Brewers and took the loss, allowing six hits and three runs.

Cubs Career Stats vs Castillo

Player AB HR RBI AVG.
Javier Baez 22 0 2 .182
Kris Bryant 18 0 1 .222
Anthony Rizzo 21 0 0 .190
Kyle Schwarber 17 3 5 .294
Ian Happ 10 0 1 .500
Albert Almora Jr. 16 0 1 .313
Jason Heyward 19 1 2 .263
Wilson Contreras 8 0 2 .500
David Bote 6 0 0 .167

Castillo Is Cruising

Luis Castillo did everything right in his first start of the season (six innings, six hits, one run, 11 strikeouts), but came out with a no-decision against the Tigers. He’ll be seeking to continue his run of recent success against the Cubs, who he has a 3-1 record and 2.84 ERA in his past five starts.

The Reds’ rotation is awfully deep, and Castillo is certainly part of that. He was an All-Star last season, with a 15-8 record and 3.40 ERA.

He is particularly strong at limiting the long ball, with a career 1.2 home runs per nine. Last year, the Cubs finished second in the NL in homers (256).

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Reds Were Due; Can They Roll?

Looking at Cincinnati’s four-game losing streak, you can see they were due for a win. Four losses by a combined seven runs, and they were tied or leading entering the ninth inning in two of them.

On Wednesday, their offense really broke out. And Castillo is the type of pitcher who may only need a few runs of support to turn in a winning effort. Perhaps it’s time for the Reds to get rolling.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds, -122

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