Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Odds, Player Props & Picks for Game 3 (Oct. 18)

• Texas plays just its second home game of the 2023 playoffs on Wednesday in Game 3 of the ALCS against Houston
• The Rangers remain undefeated in the postseason after taking a 2-0 lead on the Astros in the best-of-seven series
• See the Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers odds, player props, and expert picks for Oct. 18

Still in search of the franchise’s first World Series title, the Texas Rangers (97-72, 51-31 home) can inch closer to their ultimate goal on Wednesday night when they host the Houston Astros (93-75, 53-30 away) in Game 3 of the ALCS at Globe Life Field (8:03 pm ET).

Already up 2-0 in the best-of-seven series after two narrow wins in Houston, the Rangers can push Houston to the brink of elimination tonight. With one of the most-dominant pitchers in baseball history returning to their lineup on Wednesday, the Rangers are positioned as favorites for the first time in this series.

Astros vs Rangers Game 3 Odds

Wednesday’s MLB odds list Texas as -125 home favorite with Max Scherzer making his first start since September 12. Houston comes back as a +105 underdog and will have Cristian Javier on the mound. Texas took a 2-0 win in Game 1 behind a stellar performance from starter Jordan Montgomery and held on for a 5-4 win in Game 2 after a four-run first inning.

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Odds as of Oct. 18 on the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Lock in a DraftKings sign-up promo code to wager on HOU vs TEX Game 3. 

Scherzer, who is returning from a back strain, isn’t expected to pitch too deep into Game 3 (as the player props further down the page show). But his Rangers are nonetheless well positioned. Texas has become a massive -473 favorite in the AL Pennant odds. They are also sitting at +124 in the World Series odds, just behind Philadelphia, which also owns a 2-0 on Arizona.

HOU vs TEX Game 3 Starting Pitchers

Three-time Cy Young-winner and 2019 World Series-winner Max Scherzer returns from a month-long hiatus to take the ball for the Rangers in Game 3. The Astros will counter with Cristian Javier in Wednesday’s MLB lineups. Javier shook off an ugly regular season with a five-inning shutout against Minnesota in a pivotal Game 3 of the ALDS after the teams split Games 1 and 2 in Houston.

Cristian Javier vs Max Scherzer

Scherzer made two starts against the Astros in the regular season; one was a gem and the other ranks among the worst of his career. Back in June, while still with the Mets, Scherzer limited the Astros to one run on four hits with eight strikeouts over eight innings of work, needing just 91 pitchers to retire 24 Houston hitters. Back in early September, shortly before he went on the IL, Scherzer was tagged for seven runs on six hits (including three homers) and two walks in just three innings. That start alone raised his ERA from 3.55 to 3.91 for the season.

That start actually continued a concerning trend for Scherzer against this Houston lineup. In 157 total at-bats, Astros hitters are hitting .287 against Scherzer with a .487 slugging percentage. Particularly concerning is that Yordan Alvarez is 4-for-7 off Scherzer with a home run and three walks. Michael Brantley, who has the longest history against Scherzer, is 20-for-54 (.370 avg) with three homers, eight doubles, 11 RBI and, somehow, only two strikeouts.

Javier only made one start against the Rangers in 2023, and it was an unmitigated disaster. The 26-year-old righty surrendered eight runs on nine hits over 4.1 innings, though Houston still emerged with a 12-11 victory. That was a drastic departure from his previous history against Texas. In 2022, Javier made a whopping five starts against the Rangers, lasting at least five innings in each one without surrendering more than three runs. Cumulatively over the five starts, he pitched 27.1 innings while striking out 35 and allowing just nine earned runs (a 2.96 ERA).

Altogether, Texas hitters are slashing .244/.331/.455 against Javier over his four-year career.

Astros vs Rangers Game 3 Player Props

With Scherzer’s stamina in serious question, his props for tonight look starkly different than a regular Mad Max start. His over/under strikeout number is at just 4.5 and his outs-recorded prop is 12.5. In order to hit the over, he would need just one out in the fifth inning. Javier has identical over/unders at DraftKings, but he’s an underdog to hit five Ks and 13 outs, whereas Scherzer is a modest favorite to go over in both categories.

The MLB player props show a couple players with strikingly short home run odds. The Rangers’ Adolis Garcia has the shortest odds at just +220, while teammate Corey Seager is close behind at +260. Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez, who leads the postseason with six homers (in just six games), is shortest among Astros players at +260.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Predictions for Game 3

On the surface, Scherzer has a checkered history against the Astros hitters, but that’s not to say every start against Houston has been subpar. Indeed, many of the uglier numbers against this lineup come from much earlier in his career when he was with Detroit (and Brantley was with division-rival Cleveland). Scherzer has actually only made five starts against the Astros since 2014 and his brutal outing in September 2023 was the only one in which he gave up more than two earned runs or lasted fewer than five full innings.

While winning the 2019 World Series with the Washington Nationals, Scherzer made two starts against the Astros (including Game 7), pitching 5.0 innings on both occasions while giving up two runs in each game and striking out a total of 10 batters. Washington won both games (5-4 and 6-2).

Javier has always been a pitcher who thrives at home and struggles on the road. His career 3.57 ERA is comprised of a 2.87 ERA at home and a bloated 4.26 ERA on the road. That trend continued this season with a  3.71 home era and 5.17 road ERA. Javier did, as mentioned, pitch a five-inning shutout at Minnesota in Game 3 of the ALDS. But he had the benefit of some very pitcher-friendly light/shadows around home plate in the early going and walked a concerning five batters. I’m not remotely convinced the issues that plagued him during the regular season are cured, and one solid road start a week ago doesn’t undo years of struggles away from home. Expect a solid night of production from the Texas lineup against the Astros starter.

Astros vs Rangers Game 3 Picks:

• Rangers moneyline (-125)
• Scherzer over 12.5 outs (-125)
• Javier over 2.5 earned runs (-120)