Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Player-Prop Picks, Odds & Predictions (ALCS Game 4)

• The Texas Rangers own a 2-1 lead on the Houston Astros heading into Game 4 of the 2023 ALCS
• Texas is a slim home favorite for Game 4 on Oct. 19
• See the Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Game 4 odds, predictions, and player props for Thursday’s matchup at Globe Life Field

The Houston Astros aren’t going away without a fight. After dropping the first two games of the ALCS at home to the Texas Rangers, the two-time reigning AL champions got one back on Wednesday night with an 8-4 road win. Houston will have a chance to even the series tonight in Game 4 at Globe Life Field in Arlington. Oddsmakers favor the Rangers, but it’s nearly a pick’em.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Game 4 Odds

The MLB odds for Thursday have Texas at -120 and Houston at +100, almost identical to the odds on Wednesday night. The over/under is sitting at a series-high of 9.5 with the under only slightly favored at -115. The MLB public betting splits show the public hammering the Rangers, who are getting 69% of moneyline handle as of 11 am ET on gameday. The public slightly favors the over with 53% of game-total handle on over 9.5 so far.

Odds as of Oct. 19 at Caesars. Lock in a Caesars promo code to bet on Game 2 of the 2023 NLCS on Tuesday. 

The Astros, who had faded to +370 in the AL Pennant odds when they fell behind 2-0, saw their odds to win a third straight AL title improve to +180 after their victory on Wednesday night. The World Series odds, which briefly favored the Rangers, now list Texas as a +175 second-favorite behind the Phillies (+118), who own a 2-0 lead on Arizona in the NLCS. Texas is the only team left in the MLB playoff bracket that has yet to win the World Series.

Houston vs Texas Starting Pitchers for Game 4

The Astros will send Jose Urquidy to the mound in Game 4 opposite the Rangers’ Andrew Heaney. Urquidy is coming off an injury-shortened season which was, by all metrics, the worst of his three-plus-year career. The six-foot righty, who owns a 3.98 career ERA, posted a 5.29 ERA this year in just 63.0 innings.

Jose Urquidy vs Andrew Heaney

But like teammate Cristian Javier, Urquidy has showed signs of turning things around in the postseason. In his first start of the 2023 playoffs, Urquidy went a solid 5.2 innings against the Twins, giving up two runs on three hits and a walk with six Ks. That actually carried over a nine-inning scoreless streak from his final two regular-season appearances, which lowered his ERA from a horrendous 6.17 to 5.29.

Heaney, who was excellent in limited time with the Dodgers last year (3.10 ERA in 72.2 innings), failed to build off that in his first year with Texas. He wound up with a 4.15 ERA and a concerningly high 1.38 WHIP on the season and was relegated to the bullpen late in the year. His play dramatically improved once moved to the pen, though, which propelled him back into the rotation in the postseason. Heaney gave manager Bruce Bochy a solid 3.2 innings of work in his first start of the playoffs against Baltimore, allowing just one run on two hits and a walk, though he recorded just one K.

Both pitchers have a concerning history against the hitters they’ll be facing on Thursday. Houston’s lineup is slashing .263/.325/.464 in 179 total at-bats with nine home runs (four from Jose Abreu and two from Jose Altuve), nine doubles, and 21 RBI off of Heaney. Urquidy’s numbers against the Texas hitters are better in some departments, but much worse in others. In 78 total at-bats, Urquidy has limited the Rangers’ lineup to a .218 average. But they are slugging .538 off the righty with seven homers, four doubles, and 10 RBI in those 78 at-bats. Marcus Semien has been particularly problematic for Urquidy, going 8-for-21 with three homers and four RBI.

Houston vs Texas Game 4 Player Props

Urquidy and Heaney both have an outs-recorded prop of just 11.5 for Game 4 in Thursday’s MLB player props, meaning they only need to complete the fourth inning to go over.

Once again, the shortest odds to hit a home run belong to Texas slugger Adolis Garcia at +260. Garcia has two home runs and seven RBI in the playoffs but has yet to homer against Houston. Yordan Alvarez, who was robbed of his seventh home run of the postseason last night by Leody Taveras, is the shortest Astro at +310.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Predictions (Game 4)

The over/under of 9.5 suggests neither starter is going to be great. But there is reason to have at least a modicum of confidence in both, especially Urquidy, who finished the regular season strong and started the playoffs similarly. For his career, Urquidy has a solid 3.64 ERA with 42 strikeouts in exactly 42.0 postseason innings.

It’s also extremely hard to overlook the Astros’ performance away from home this season. Houston went 51-30 on the road in the regular season before winning both games in Minnesota in the ALDS and taking the first in Arlington yesterday. Expect the exponentially-greater playoff experience on the Houston side to win out on Thursday and level this series.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Game 4 Picks:

• First three innings under 2.5 runs (+114)
• Marcus Semien over 0.5 RBI (+155)
• Astros moneyline (+100)