Mets vs Marlins Picks, Odds, and Lines (August 5)

• The New York Mets are -130 road favorites over the Miami Marlins in a National League afternoon game slated for Thursday, August 4
• Left-hander Rich Hill is making his third start for the Mets since being acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays
• New York halted a four-game losing streak against Miami with a 5-3 victory on Wednesday

It’s the final game of a four-game midweek series as the New York Mets (56-51, 23-31 away) are in sunny Florida to face the Miami Marlins (46-62, 26-27 home) for an afternoon game on Thursday, August 5.

New York posted a 5-3 victory on Wednesday night to bring to a halt a four-game losing streak against the Marlins. The Mets are -130 road favorites to win again on Thursday afternoon and gain a split of this four-game set. New York is 0-2-1 over its last three series.

Mets vs Marlins Odds

Odds as of August 4th at DraftKings.

First pitch for Thursday’s game is 12:10pm ET at LoanDepot Park.

Hill vs Rogers

Hill has yet to figure in a decision in two starts since coming over to the Mets in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. He was the 16th starting pitcher deployed by the injury-riddled Mets this season. That’s an MLB high.

The 41-year-old has worked five innings both starts and the Mets won both games. However, Hill has surrendered at least three earned runs in each of his past four starts. That’s caused his ERA to swell from 3.65 to 4.10. Hill shows a 6.30 ERA in his two starts with the Mets.

Rich Hill strikes 'em out, @McCannon33 throws 'em out. #LGM pic.twitter.com/D1Vg8lCbQd

— New York Mets (@Mets) August 1, 2021

Hill has faced the Marlins five times, including four starts. He’s 2-1 with a 5.48 ERA over 21.1 innings pitched.

The Mets will be missing NL Rookie of the Year favorite Trevor Rogers. They lefty was a last-minute scratch for his scheduled Thursday start.

Rogers is taking time away from the team on bereavement leave. He’s enjoyed much success against New York’s NL club during his brief career.

The left-hander made his MLB debut against the Mets on Aug. 25, 2020. Rogers worked four innings of one-hit shutout ball.

Updated NL ERA leaders (qualifiers):

1. Buehler 2.16
2. Peralta 2.21
3. Woodruff 2.26
4. Gausman 2.35 (starts tonight)
5. Trevor Rogers 2.45

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) August 4, 2021

He didn’t figure in the decision that day. However, five days later Rogers beat the Mets 5-3 for his first MLB victory. This season, he worked six innings of three-hit shutout ball on April 11 for a 3-0 win over the Mets.

Overall, Rogers is 1-4 in his last 11 decisions since May 24. However, Rogers has allowed more than two runs just once through his last 14 trips to the mound.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Marlins infielder Joe Panik is 4-for-10 (.400) when facing Hill. Shortstop Miguel Rojas is 1-for-1 (1.000). Jesus Aguilar is 2-for-8 (.250) with a home run and three RBI.

.@JeffMcNeil805 crushed this one. #LGM pic.twitter.com/a4qOmN6alZ

— New York Mets (@Mets) August 1, 2021

Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil is 2-for-5 against Rogers with a pair of doubles and an RBI. Outfielder Dominic Smith is 2-for-4 (.500) with an RBI.

Mets vs Marlins Picks

As both the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves loom larger in the rear-view mirror, the NL East-leading Mets are scuffling. Even with Wednesday’s win, New York is 4-7 over the past 11 games. They’re just 2-5 in their past seven games at Miami.

Meanwhile, Hill shows a 6.30 ERA and just a 1.26 strikeouts to bases on balls ratio in his two starts with the Mets.

Even though the Marlins will now likely be forced into going with a bullpen start, they’re still one of the deepest pitching staffs in baseball.

The Marlins are fifth in the majors in ERA (3.52). At the same time, they are 27th in runs scored per game (3.89). The Mets are even worse. They sit 29th in runs scored per game (3.78) and eighth in team ERA (3.68).

Pick: Miami Marlins moneyline (+110)