Mets vs Pirates Odds, Lines & Spread (Sep. 6)
- The Mets vs Pirates odds favor New York as -215 moneyline favorites on Tuesday, September 6, at 6:35pm ET
- New York will give the ball to Taijuan Walker (10-3, 3.45 ERA), while Pittsburgh will counter with Mitch Keller (4-10, 4.43 ERA)
- Read below for the Mets vs Pirates odds and betting prediction
Game 1 of the Mets (85-50, 39-27 away) versus Pirates (49-84, 26-39 home) series was washed away on Monday, but instead of scheduling a doubleheader on Tuesday, a twin-bill has been pushed back until Wednesday.
That means fans with tickets to Tuesday’s contest are going to miss out on a chance to see the great Jacob de Grom. His start originally scheduled for Tuesday has been moved to Wednesday, as both teams decided to push their Monday starters to Tuesday’s matchup.
The extra day of rest should benefit New York, as the Mets were in dire need to regroup after dropping back-to-back outings to the lowly Nationals. Oddsmakers aren’t expecting a third straight loss to an NL division bottom-feeder, as New York is currently the hefty road chalk for the series opener against Pittsburgh.
Mets vs Pirates Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | -215 | -1.5 (-130) | Ov 8.5 (+100) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +185 | +1.5 (+110) | Un 8.5 (-120) |
Odds as of September 5 at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.
The Mets are -215 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA with a chance of showers and 75 degree game time temperatures in the forecast.
New York vs Pittsburgh Probable Pitchers
New York, a top-four World Series odds contender, will give the ball to Taijuan Walker. The 30-year-old has been a model of consistency this season, allowing three of fewer runs in 20 of his 23 starts.
Mets will keep the same pitching alignment in Pittsburgh:
Tuesday: Taijuan Walker
Wednesday: Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt (order TBA)— Pat Ragazzo (@ragazzoreport) September 5, 2022
Walker has suffered just one loss since July 7, and has been terrific on the road all year. He’s 6-2 away from home in 2022, with a 3.29 ERA and .245 opponent batting average. As we’ll discuss later, matchups don’t get much more favorable than outings versus the Pirates, and Walker has taken advantage of cupcake opponents all season. He’s 7-0 versus teams with a sub-500 record.
Walker vs Keller Stats
| 10-3 | Record | 4-10 |
| 3.45 | ERA | 6.12 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1.52 |
| .240 | OBA | .307 |
| 2.1 | SO/W Ratio | 2.5 |
The Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller. The right-hander put together a nice outing in his last start, but those types of starts have been few and far between over his big league career.
After two brutal starts, Mitch Keller tosses a quality start with a career-high 10 SO vs. MIL.
Decent Whiff% & CSW%, but nothing mind-blowing.
He hasn't used the 4-seamer over 40% of the time since May 18. pic.twitter.com/dTjIxNZEP8
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) August 31, 2022
Keller is 11-27 in 62 career starts, with a 5.35 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Surprisingly, he’s never faced the Mets in his four major league seasons, but given the strength of their offense we should be pessimistic about Keller’s prospects.
The last time he faced a top-nine offense, he lasted only 3.2 innings versus the Braves after coughing up seven runs. The start before, also against a top-nine scoring team in Boston, he lasted just 2 innings after yielding five runs.
Mets vs Pirates Betting Trends
New York hitters are likely itching to get back in the batter’s box after a horrendous weekend showing. They managed just two runs and 10 hits total in two games versus the Nationals, which is a far cry from what we’ve come to expect from them.
The Mets are a top-six scoring team in baseball, ranking inside the top-10 in slugging and OPS. They rank fourth in the NL in run differential, and have the second most victories as a visitor.
Both Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are top-eight NL MVP odds contenders, while Alonso has traditionally thrived on the road. He boasts a career slash line of .272/.353/.570 as a visitor, while 18 of his 32 home runs this season have come on the road.
Most home runs within first four seasons
Ralph Kiner 168 (604 games)
Albert Pujols 160 (629 games)
Eddie Mathews 153 (581 games)
Mark Teixeira 140 (615 games)
Pete Alonso 138 (502 games)
Joe DiMaggio 137 (554 games)— Mike Mayer (@mikemayer22) September 3, 2022
While we’re optimistic New York can bounce back after a dismal weekend offensively, the same can’t be said for Pittsburgh. The Pirates were held to just four runs total over three games by the Blue Jays, and are batting a measly .206 over the past 14 days.
Pittsburgh has traditionally fared better offensively at PNC park than on the road, but that hasn’t been the case lately. They’ve scored two runs or less in six of their past eight home games, getting outscored by a total of 51-14 in the process.
NYM vs PIT Last 10 Meetings
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/18/21 | Mets | Pirates | NYM, 7-6 |
| 7/17/21 | Mets | Pirates | PIT, 9-7 |
| 7/16/21 | Mets | Pirates | PIT, 4-1 |
| 7/11/21 | Pirates | Mets | PIT, 6-5 |
| 7/10/21 | Pirates | Mets | NYM, 4-2 |
| 7/10/21 | Pirates | Mets | PIT, 6-2 |
| 7/9/21 | Pirates | Mets | NYM, 13-4 |
| 8/4/19 | Mets | Pirates | NYM, 13-2 |
| 8/3/19 | Mets | Pirates | NYM, 7-5 |
| 8/2/19 | Mets | Pirates | PIT, 8-4 |
Mets vs Pirates Pick
Not only has the Pirates lineup been an abject failure, but their pitching has been a disaster as well. Their team ERA has regressed in three straight months, and their bullpen ranks bottom-four in strand rate and K/9. It should come as no surprise then, that Pittsburgh is 11-34 in their last 45 games and is one of the worst teams in baseball at covering the runline over the first 5 innings.
New York on the other hand, ranks top-eight in that category and we should expect them to jump all over Keller just like the potent lineups before them.
Pick: New York Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings (-140)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
