Nationals’ NL Pennant Odds Improve from +710 to +470 After Winning Wild Card Game

• The Washington Nationals won the National League Wild Card game 4-3 on Tuesday
• The Nats have never won a divisional series, ever
• Washington’s bullpen had the second-worst ERA in all of baseball this season

The Washington Nationals edged the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night to advance past the National League Wild Card game. As a result, their 2019 NL Pennant odds shifted to +470 (up from +710). Are they a serious threat to win the pennant or was Tuesday merely one feel-good game for a long-suffering fan base?

National League Pennant Odds

All odds taken 10/02/19.

Nats Come Back To Beat Brewers

For about eight innings of action, the Nationals looked lifeless on Tuesday. They had a home run in the third inning and that was it in terms of offense. However, in the eighth inning, they had a two-out rally, which was capped off by a bases-clearing single by Juan Soto (helped out by Trent Grisham error in right field) to put the Nats up 4-3.

They closed out the ninth and won the game.

There were certainly concerns coming out of the Wild Card Game, but for a franchise that’s struggled in the playoffs, any playoff win is a good playoff win. And the team should be confident heading into their National League Division Series as they’re now riding a nine-game winning streak.

Scherzer’s Struggles A Concern

One of the biggest concerns from the Nats’ Wild Card win was that ace Max Scherzer struggled again. His teams had lost each of his last seven playoff starts, so it’s good that they finally got a win, but it wasn’t because of him. Scherzer pitched just 5.0 innings while giving up four hits (two homers) and three earned runs.

At one point in the season, Scherzer was in the conversation for the NL Cy Young. However, he had his worst month of the year in September (5.16 ERA) and he started out the playoffs poorly too. Scherzer had walked three or more batters in a game just once this entire season – his first start in May – but he did it again on Tuesday.

The Nats main edge in this series is their starting trio of Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. If they’re not going to dominate, this won’t be much of a series.

Nats Bullpen Will Be Their Demise

While the Nats might have the best rotation trio in the National League, their bullpen is an absolute mess. Could things turn around? Possibly. However, only the Baltimore Orioles, who finished with the 54 wins this season, had a worse bullpen ERA than the Nationals.

Fun fact: only the New York Yankees and Houston Astros had more runs off of relievers than the Dodgers.

What’s The Best Bet?

I’ve been bullish on the Nats to make the playoffs all season long, but I don’t expect them to get past the Dodgers. Does Los Angeles have some concerns? Absolutely. We’re not sure if Cody Bellinger will play better in the playoffs after struggling the last couple Octobers, and also late in the 2019 regular season.

However, the Nationals just aren’t good enough to win this series. The starting pitching is probably a small edge for the Nats, but the Dodgers top three of Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is not far behind, while the bullpen and batting lineup is a huge edge for the Dodgers.

Add in the home-field advantage (LA is 59-22 at Chavez Ravine) and I’m not expecting the Nats to get past this series.

That being the case, I wouldn’t bet on Washington to win the National League Pennant this season at +470.