Nationals vs Phillies Picks, Odds, and Probable Pitchers (July 29)

• The Washington Nationals are road favorites over the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday afternoon
• Max Scherzer (7-4, 2.83) — who could be making his last start for Washington — faces Vince Velasquez (3-5, 5.54) in the matinee affair
• The odds and pitching matchups can be found below with a prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to defend their home field against the Washington Nationals — while keeping pace the National League East-leading New York Mets — when they host Max Scherzer and co. at 1:05 pm ET on Thursday in the final game of a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies (50-50, 30-20 home) are four games behind the Amazin’s — and four games in front of the Nats (46-54, 19-29 away) — in the NL East.

The Phillies have gone 7-6 since the All-Star break, taking four of five from the Marlins before losing a two-game set against the Yankees and splitting a four-game series with the Braves. They enter Thursday’s tilt as underdogs against Scherzer, whose name has been involved in trade rumors.

Washington comes in as a -140 moneyline favorite, with the odds not changing significantly since opening.

Nationals vs Phillies Odds

Odds as of July 28th at DraftKings.

The Nats have gone 4-8 since the break — including a sweep at the hands of Mid-Atlantic rival Baltimore at Camden Yards. Will the sluggish start to the second half make the Nats a seller of a future Hall of Famer? Or can Washington right the ship and make an unexpected postseason run?

Probable Pitchers

Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer (7-4, 2.83) gets the ball for the Nats. He’ll square off against  Vince Velasquez (3-5, 5.54), who gets the start for the Fightin’s.

The eight-time All-Star has only notched two quality starts in his last six outings — compared to five in his previous seven. The Padres took Scherzer deep twice in his last start, after going seven innings and allowing four hits, four runs, three walks and striking out eight. The 37-year-old did not factor into the 8-7 Washington victory.

Scherzer vs Velasquez

Perhaps, Scherzer is feeling the effects of having his name involved in trade rumors for the first time in over a decade. With Trevor Bauer seemingly having pitched his last game for the Dodgers and the franchise flush with cash, a move back to the division Scherzer started his career in is a possibility. The MLB trade deadline is 4 p.m. ET Friday. In the meantime, he’ll be on the bump in the City of Brotherly Love Thursday, pitching for the team he won a World Series with in 2019.

Sources: Max Scherzer trade talks have continued to intensify, and those close to the conversations believe a deal could be reached by late tonight. The Giants, Dodgers, and Padres are among the top suitors, but other clubs are involved. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 28, 2021

Mad Max is 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA in nine road starts this season. In eight day game starts, he has a 3-2 record and 2.36 ERA.

Crucial Cutch

If the Phillies upset Scherzer and the Nats, Andrew McCutchen might have a say. The former NL MVP is having an absolutely epic summer. In early July, he hit his second grand slam of the season. His first, back on June 23rd, was the first pinch-hit slam of his career — and the first by a Phillie since 2017.

Since June 1, McCutchen is hitting .283/.404/.580 with a .984 OPS, seven doubles, 11 home runs, and 34 RBI in 44 games. All he’s done against the Nats in this series is deliver big flies in the first two games of the series.

Andrew McCutchen now has 11 HRs that have given the Phillies the lead or tied

Most on the Phillies this year 💥💥
pic.twitter.com/nnq8Ke5lIj

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) July 27, 2021

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

As you can see, the Phillies haven’t had a ton of success against the Cooperstown-bound ace. But then again, what team has?

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

His counterpart Thursday has actually had decent success against the bulk of Washington’s probable lineup Thursday. Over 11 games (10 starts), Velasquez is 2-2 against the Nats with a 5.13 ERA. Certainly not earth-shattering numbers — and when you factor in his 2021 season, bettors should have pause going for the underdog in this spot.

Following last night's 15-3 #Phillies loss, Joe Girardi was asked if they can keep moving forward with Vince Velasquez. He indicated they need more from their guys, but it's not from lack of trying. pic.twitter.com/Ryp37Jifrj

— Dave Uram (@MrUram) July 25, 2021

The 29-year-old has a 7.15 ERA this season against every team other than the Marlins (whom he has pitched 18 scoreless innings against). He also has a 7.74 ERA in his last 10 starts. These are not encouraging numbers.

Nationals vs Phillies Pick

Even with Kyle Schwarber still on the shelf with a hamstring injury and Scherzer’s uneven last month-plus, Washington is favored on the road for a reason.

Yes, the Phillies have more to play for and, yes, the Cutch Daddy has been rolling. But Mad Max — in possibly his last start for Washington — is the play here.

The Pick: Nationals  moneyline (-140)