Orioles vs Yankees Predictions, Odds & Player Props to Target (July 4)
- The Orioles vs Yankees odds list New York at -120 on the moneyline ahead of Tuesday’s contest
- Kyle Gibson (8-5, 4.66 ERA) starts for Baltimore, while Clarke Schmidt (3-6 4.37 ERA) counters for New York
- Check out the latest Orioles vs Yankees odds, picks and player props to target below
On a day where America celebrates its independence, it’s no surprise the MLB slate is littered with afternoon action to commemorate the occasion. Tuesday’s schedule features 10 contests with a first pitch before 4:40 pm ET, including Game 2 of the Orioles (49-33, 23-15 away) and Yankees (46-38, 25-19 home) four-game set.
Online sportsbooks expect a hard fought, closely contested affair in the MLB odds, listing New York as home chalk, but favoring Baltimore on the runline.
Orioles vs Yankees Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | +100 | -1.5 (+155) | O 9 (+100) |
| New York Yankees | -120 | +1.5 (-180) | U 9 (-120) |
The Yankees are currently -120 moneyline favorites, in a contest with a total of 9. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 pm ET at Yankee Stadium, in The Bronx, NY, with 82 degree game-time temperatures, and a risk of thunderstorms on deck.
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Odds as of July 3 at Bet365. Claim a Bet365 bonus code to bet on Tuesday’s MLB action or see SBD’s Bet365 review.
Baltimore vs New York Probable Pitchers
New York, a top-six World Series odds contender, will give the ball to Clarke Schmidt. The 27-year-old got off to a shaky start to his second full season, but lately he’s been one of the team’s better arms.
After posting an ERA north of 5.00 through April and May, Schmidt has trimmed that number to 1.97 over his last six starts. The Yankees are 0-6 in those outings however, since they’ve only supported him with nine total runs.
Clarke Schmidt has been awesome but the Yankees don’t hit for him pic.twitter.com/262BVv3Vq5
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) June 26, 2023
Schmidt hasn’t allowed more than three runs since the middle of May, a stretch that includes a strong start against Baltimore. He held the O’s to five hits and one run on that evening, but still took the loss in a 3-1 ball game.
The Orioles regulars in the MLB starting lineups have yet to figure out Schmidt over 48 at-bats, hitting only .188, with a .250 slugging percentage. Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays, three of the team’s top-seven bats, have especially struggled against Schmidt going 0-for-18 combined.
Gibson vs Schmidt Stats
| 8-5 | Record | 3-6 |
| 4.66 | ERA | 4.37 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.42 |
| .276 | OBA | .278 |
| 2.4 | SO/W Ratio | 3.0 |
Baltimore will counter with Kyle Gibson, which must be music to New York’s ears. Gibson is in the midst of his worst stretch of the season, yielding 16 hits and 11 runs over his last two starts.
The right-hander failed to make it out of the 5th inning in both of those outings, while the O’s have dropped each of his past three appearances. Gibson has plenty of experience facing the Yankee regulars, and aside from a strong start earlier in the season against them, it hasn’t gone well.
New York hitters are slugging .569 lifetime against Gibson, with a .937 OPS. Josh Donaldson has done the most damage, smacking six hits in 16 at-bats, with three homers.
Baltimore vs New York Predictions
The Yankees entered the week with an 11-14 record since slugger Aaron Judge went down. Last year’s AL MVP odds champion is gradually increasing his on field work, and his return can’t come soon enough.
Aaron Judge says he’ll be back “hopefully soon”
Gerrit Cole did praying hands when a return right after the All-Star break was mentioned pic.twitter.com/KHmm6horpy
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) July 3, 2023
Without Judge, New York is hitting an MLB worst .215, with the league’s fifth worst slugging percentage. They’re averaging only 3.7 runs per game, which is 1.3 runs less than they produced a season ago.
Anthony Volpe and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are the only Yankees batting north of .250 during that stretch, while Billy McKinney and Gleyber Torres are the lone New York hitters with more than two home runs. The Yankees did erupt for six runs in Monday’s meeting with Baltimore, and crossed the plate 21 times in a two game stretch last week in Oakland.
Orioles vs Yankees 2023 H2H Results
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 3 | Orioles | Yankees | NYY, 6-3 |
| May 25 | Orioles | Yankees | BAL, 3-1 |
| May 24 | Orioles | Yankees | BAL, 9-6 |
| May 23 | Orioles | Yankees | NYY, 6-5 |
| April 9 | Yankees | Orioles | NYY, 5-3 |
| April 8 | Yankees | Orioles | NYY, 4-1 |
| April 7 | Yankees | Orioles | BAL, 7-6 |
As for the O’s lineup, the outlook is rather bleak. Schmidt isn’t the only hurler that’s had their number lately, as Baltimore has dropped five of six. They’re averaging 2.5 runs per game during that stretch, and over the last month are MLB’s fourth lowest scoring team.
Pitching and defense has been keeping them in games prior to this funk, Gibson’s latest outings notwithstanding. Over the last two weeks, only Ryan McKenna and Anthony Santander are batting over .263, and Santander is someone the Yankees might want to avoid pitching to. He’s slashing .294/.308/.588 over the past 14 days, with five home runs and 9 RBI.
Picks:
- New York Yankees Moneyline (-120)
- Clarke Schmidt Under 2.5 Runs (-115)
- Anthony Santander 1+ Hits (-230)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
