Phillies vs Braves Odds and Picks (Sep. 28)
- The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves begin a crucial three game set with the NL East title on the line
- Zack Wheeler (14-9, 2.79 ERA) takes on Charlie Morton (13-6, 3.53 ERA) in Atlanta
- See the updated odds for Tuesday’s series opener
With just six games left in their respective seasons, the Philadelphia Phillies (81-75; 34-41 on road) have one last chance to pry the NL East away from the Atlanta Braves (83-72; 37-37 at home).
The two teams begin a three-game set on Tuesday from Truist Park. Atlanta currently owns a 2.5 game lead over Philly in the NL East. Winning the division is realistically the Phillies’ only chance at making the postseason.
First pitch is set for 7:20 pm EST from Atlanta with a clear forecast.
Phillies vs Braves Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | +105 | +1.5 (-200) | Ov 7.5 (-115) |
| Atlanta Braves | -125 | -1.5 (+170) | Un 7.5 (-105) |
Odds as of September 27th from DraftKings
The Braves are favored heading into Tuesday, and they’ve been hot. Atlanta is 8-2 over their last 10 against the spread, with the over hitting 50% of the time. Philadelphia is just 5-5 ATS with the over going 2-7-1 in that span.
Despite the slump, the Phillies hold the edge in the season series, 9-7. They’ve been outscored 75-64 though, and split their last series, a four game set in July. They were outscored 24-12.
Probable Pitchers
The Braves could not be set up better for this series. Charlie Morton takes the ball in the opener, and Max Fried will follow. They’ve been the Braves’ best arms all season, and this is the biggest spot.
Philadelphia’s arms line up just as well. Wheeler getting the ball in the opener is the best case scenario. Especially with how he’s handled Atlanta this year.
Zack Wheeler vs Charlie Morton
| 31 | Starts | 31 |
| 14-9 | Record | 13-6 |
| 206.1 | Innings Pitched | 176.0 |
| 64/70 | Earned Runs/Runs | 69/79 |
| 240/45 | Strikeouts/Walks | 203/56 |
| 2.79 | ERA | 3.53 |
| 1.018 | WHIP | 1.068 |
| 10.5 | K/9 | 10.4 |
Wheeler has the sixth-best ERA in the MLB and he’s thrown the most innings. He’s also second in the league in strikeouts, just four behind Robbie Ray for the league lead.
Lowest Exit Velocity allowed, qualified SP:
1. Zack Wheeler – 83.7
2. Wade Miley – 84.3
3. Julio Urías – 84.8
4. Corbin Burnes – 85.0https://t.co/bCGaTowwvh— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) September 22, 2021
Against the Braves he has been especially dominant. In four starts he’s struck out 34 over 26.2 innings, with a 0.938 WHIP and a 1.35 ERA. His last start against them saw him throw seven innings of one-run ball, with eight strikeouts. It’s been four starts since Wheeler has given up more than one run.
Per Fangraphs, the playoff chances for the teams other than those who have clinched or been eliminated, per Fangraphs:
AL
Astros 99.2%
Red Sox 87.8%
Yankees 81%
Jays 28.1%
Mariners 2.5%
Athletics 0.7%NL
Cardinals 100%
Braves 87.6%
Phillies 12.4%https://t.co/aW7oAjgFzc— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) September 27, 2021
Morton has been colder lately, but only compared to Wheeler’s dominance. The 37-year old carries a 3.60 ERA over his last four starts, with a 22/7 strikeout to walk rate. Opponents are hitting just .195 off of him.
Against the Phillies, he’s 2-2 in four starts with 21 strikeouts in 17.2 innings and a 3.06 ERA. Wheeler and Morton are 1-1 head-to-head in 2021.
Phillies Hope Offense Carries Over Against Braves
While they got shut out 6-0 in the series finale, Philadelphia’s offense showed up in a big way against the Pirates. In the first three games they outscored Pittsburgh 23-12.
The Braves are coming in riding a sweep of the Padres where their bats did some heavy lifting too, outscoring San Diego 18-11.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitcher
| Braves Batter | Batting Average vs Wheeler | Phillies Batter | Batting Average vs Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ehire Adrianza | .000 | Freddy Galvis | .500 |
| Ozzie Albies | .200 | Didi Gregorius | .267 |
| Orlando Arcia | .333 | Bryce Harper | .412 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | .500 | Odubel Herrera | .429 |
| Adam Duvall | .300 | Travis Jankowski | .000 |
| Freddie Freeman | .444 | Andrew Knapp | .000 |
| Guillermo Heredia | .000 | Andrew McCutchen | .091 |
| Joc Pederson | .125 | Brad Miller | .200 |
| Austin Riley | .222 | JT Realmuto | .389 |
| Jorge Soler | .000 | Jean Segura | .259 |
| Dansby Swanson | .115 | Ronald Torreyes | .333 |
| N/A | N/A | Zack Wheeler | .250 |
In the four games that Morton has started, Bryce Harper hasn’t had the best of luck. His total line is 3-for-14 with two runs scored and four walks. Just one of those hits has come against Morton for the NL MVP favorite. Over his last six games he’s hitting .353 but has just one home run and two RBI in 17 at-bats.
Speaking of NL MVPs, Freddie Freeman has gone 5-for-15 with two homers in games Wheeler starts, but most of that damage comes after Wheeler leaves. He’s managed just one single off of him this year. Ozzie Albies (3-for-16) and Austin Riley (2-for-14) have struggled in Wheeler’s starts too.
Expect Philly to Bring Their Best
The Phillies need to make a statement with this game, and everything has lined up perfectly for them. Wheeler has been outright dominant this season, and some of his best games have come against Atlanta.
Expect that trend to continue on Tuesday.
The Pick: Phillies (+105)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
