Rangers vs Astros Game 6 Odds, Props, Predictions & Expert Picks (Oct. 22)

• It’s do or die for the Texas Rangers on Sunday as they visit the Houston Astros trailing 3-2 in the best-of-seven ALCS
• The road team has won all five games in the 2023 ALCS so far
• See the Rangers vs Astros Game 6 odds, player props, and picks

The Texas Rangers have fallen from grace, and fallen hard. After rattling off seven straight wins to start the postseason – including Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS in Houston – the Rangers dropped three straight to their AL West rivals at home and now trail the best-of-seven 3-2 as the series shifts back to Houston for Games 6 and 7 (if necessary).

Needing two straight wins in hostile territory to advance to their first World Series since 2011, the good news for Ranger faithful is that the road team has won every game in the series to date. The bad news is that oddsmakers have set the Astros as slim favorites to win Game 6 (and massive favorites to win the AL Pennant).

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Game 6 Odds

The MLB odds for Sunday list Houston as a -126 home favorite, with Texas at +108 to extend the series to a Game 7. Houston’s odds to win the American League are now a hyper-short -475 on average, giving the Astros an 82.61% implied win probability.

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Odds as of Oct. 22 at FanDuel. Lock in a FanDuel Sportsbook deposit bonus to bet on Texas vs Houston Game 6 on Sunday night. 

On the strength of Jose Altuve’s three-run top-of-the-ninth home run, the Astros captured Game 5 by a 5-4 score. Altuve’s blast also sent the Astros to the top of the World Series odds, where they are currently +115 favorites to win their second straight Fall Classic.

Instant chills from this @Astros radio call of Jose Altuve’s go-ahead homer last night.

(MLB x @BudweiserUSA) pic.twitter.com/fLSyJAW2M7

— MLB (@MLB) October 21, 2023

If Houston wins on Sunday night, the MLB playoff bracket will see the Astros in the World Series for the third straight season.

Texas vs Houston Starting Pitchers for Game 6

The pitching matchup for Game 6 is a repeat of Game 2: postseason stud Nathan Eovaldi will toe the rubber for Texas, while the mercurial Framber Valdez gets the ball for Houston. Eovaldi got the better of things last Monday in a 5-4 Ranger victory, though he was far from perfect. The 33-year-old righty gave up three runs on five hits and a walk over 6.0 innings while striking out nine. But for Eovaldi against this Houston lineup, that qualifies as a gem. The Astro hitters had a .310/.377/.614 slashline against Eovaldi heading into Game 2, and that now sits at .296/.358/.598 heading into Game 6.

Nathan Eovaldi vs Framber Valdez

*All statistics in the table are from the 2023 regular season.

Valdez didn’t look like he was even going to make it through the first inning of Game 2 as Texas piled up four runs in the first frame. He eventually battled through 2.2 innings while allowing five runs (four earned) on seven hits and a walk. That was Valdez’s second ugly start of the postseason after getting roughed up for five runs on seven hits and three walks in 4.1 innings against the Twins on Oct. 8.

Thanks to those two performances, Valdez is sporting an outrageously bad 2.57 WHIP in the playoffs. That marks a drastic departure from last season’s World Series-winning campaign, when Valdez went 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 25.0 innings. But up-and-down is the name of the game with the 29-year-old Dominican, who posted a 1.88 ERA over 24 innings in the 2020 playoffs and a 7.78 ERA in 19.2 innings in the 2021 postseason.

TEX vs HOU Game 6 Player Props

The MLB player props for Game 6 list both pitchers at 4.5 Ks, though Valdez is favored to go over while Eovaldi is favored to stay under that number. The Texas starter is expected to last longer with a 15.5 outs-recorded O/U, which is one higher than Valdez (14.5).

The usual suspects have the shortest odds to go yard. Yordan Alvarez, who leads the majors with six homers in the postseason, has the best odds at +285, followed closely by Adolis Garcia at +290. Garcia finished the regular season tied for seventh in the majors with 39 homers.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction for Game 6

All the momentum is with the Astros here, as is the playoff experience. But the starting-pitcher matchup is the one area that Texas fans can be optimistic about. Eovaldi has a 2.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP this postseason and, for his career, has posted a 2.87 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. This a savvy vet who won’t be overwhelmed by the moment. Monday’s Game 2 victory would have been a huge confidence-booster for Eovaldi, as well, largely shutting down a Houston lineup that had historically teed off on him during his 13-year MLB career.

Valdez, on the other hand, has been an unmitigated disaster in the 2023 playoffs. And as his past postseason stats illustrate, he’s had a hard time turning things around when he gets off to a rough start. Expect the ice-cold Dominican to stay on his current trajectory and spot the Rangers some early runs, while Eovaldi puts in another (at minimum) respectable performance in a must-win scenario.

TEX vs HOU Game 6 Picks:

• Rangers first 5 innings moneyline (+104)
• Marcus Semien over 0.5 RBI (+180)
• Eovaldi over 4.5 Ks (+105)