Padres vs Giants Odds and Picks (Oct. 1)
- After struggling to play spoiler against the Dodgers, the Padres wrap their season with a three-game set against the Giants
- Anthony DeSclafani will start for the Giants; the Padres have yet to name a starter
- See the odds for game one of this NL West clash below
The San Francisco Giants can put the stamp on their magical season with an NL West title this weekend. And they can do so by beating up on an old friend.
The Padres come to town following a disappointing sweep against the Dodgers. With their playoff hopes long dashed, San Diego has been relegated to playing spoiler. Unfortunately they couldn’t even do that against the LA. They’ve now lost six-straight. San Francisco has won six in a row after sweeping the Diamondbacks.
First pitch for the last series of the season for both NL clubs is 9:45 pm EST from Oracle Park on Friday night.
Padres vs Giants Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | +110 | +1.5 (-190) | Ov 8.0 (-110) |
| San Francisco Giants | -130 | -1.5 (+160) | Un 8.0 (-110) |
Odds as of September 30th from DraftKings
With the NL West title on their minds, the Giants come in as home favorites against a team that’s just wrapping up 2021. These two met for a three-game set back on September 21-23, and the Giants took two of three. The Padres managed a walk off victory in the finale.
The only other Game 163 in play, aside from the AL wild card chaos scenarios, is a pretty juicy one: Dodgers at Giants to determine NL West division winner. Giants are two up going into tonight and face the Padres at home this weekend. Dodgers host NL Central winner Milwaukee.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 1, 2021
Entering Thursday night, San Diego was just 4-6 against the spread in their last 10, while the Giants were 7-3. San Fran had covered in four-straight before a 1-0 win on Wednesday against Arizona.
Giants Looking for Strong Finish
The Giants have made it to the final week atop their division because they’ve taken care of their own backyard.
San Fran is 10-9 against the Dodgers, 15-4 against the Rockies, 17-2 against the Diamondbacks and 9-7 against the Padres. Against two of the four, they’ve got a significant upper hand in run differential. Friday’s starter Anthony DeSclafani, who’s enjoying a career year, has had mixed results against San Diego this year.
Padres Batters vs Anthony DeSclafani
| Padres Batter | Career vs DeSclafani |
|---|---|
| Victor Caratini | .400 |
| Jake Cronenworth | .286 |
| Adam Frazier | .292 |
| Trent Grisham | .222 |
| Eric Hosmer | .133 |
| Hae-Seong Kim | .000 |
| Manny Machado | .222 |
| Jake Marisnick | .333 |
| Wil Meyers | .063 |
| Tommy Pham | .375 |
| Jurickson Profar | .222 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | .083 |
DeSclafani has bookended two average starts against San Diego with two great ones.
He opened the season by striking out four over five innings and allowing one run in what was eventually a 3-2 win. He would give up three in each of his next two starts, getting tagged with a loss and another no decision. On September 14 he held the Padres to one run over 6.1, allowing three hits and striking out three.
Anthony DeSclafani will start tomorrow and will be followed by Kevin Gausman. That means Gausman is no longer lined up for a potential NL Wild Card Game. Gabe Kapler said the Giants want to prioritize keeping Gausman fresh at this point in the season.
— Maria I. Guardado (@mi_guardado) September 30, 2021
Fernando Tatis Jr went 0-for-4 in that game. He’s actually 0-13 in games DeSclafani starts this year.
Tatis Jr’s September Not Up to Snuff
Despite a balky shoulder that’s dogged him most of the season and even prompted a move to the outfield, Tatis Jr has been having a spectacular year. In fact, he was the favorite for NL MVP until mid-September.
Unfortunately, the final month of the season has not been as kind to the superstar.
Tatis Jr: September vs Rest of Season
| .275 | Average | .283 |
| 5 | Home Runs | 37 |
| 15 | RBI | 82 |
| 11 | Runs | 88 |
| .359 | OBP | .367 |
| .484 | SLG% | .645 |
| .843 | OPS | 1.012 |
To be clear, ‘not as kind’ in Tatis Jr’s world is still a lot better than most big leaguers can hope for. But the biggest drop off has been in the power department. Along with the dips in slugging percentage and OPS, Tatis’ HR/game over the first five months was 0.36. That’s now dropped to 0.20, and understandably its brought his RBI/game down to 0.60 from 0.80.
Tatis has performed well against the Giants this year, though. He’s hit .296 in 14 games against them, with four home runs and seven RBI. He went 4-for-13 in the last series against San Fran with a home run and two RBI. Oddly enough, he’s hitless in the four games DeSclafani has started.
Offense Comes Late for Padres, Giants
The first six games of the season series all finished with eight or fewer runs. In the ten games since, only one has finished with fewer than nine runs. San Diego has been hit and miss offensively on their six game losing streak, posting some big numbers but also struggling to find runs too.
San Francisco has been piling the runs on however. Before their 1-0 win over Arizona on Wednesday, the Giants had scored at least six runs in seven straight games. They’ll hold up their end of the bargain once again.
The Pick: Over 8.0 (-110)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
