Upcoming Match-ups
Tmrw
28
Apr
1:00 PM
NY
PHI
+5
-5
208.5
3:30 PM
LAC
DAL
+6
-6
209.5
7:00 PM
MIL
IND
+7.5
-7.5
220.5
9:30 PM
MIN
PHO
-1
+1
209

Yankees vs Astros Game 1 ALCS Odds, Predictions & Probable Pitchers

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Jan 5, 2023 · 7:55 AM PST

Justin Verlander delivers a pitch
Oct 4, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) delivers a pitch during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
  • Houston is laying -180 on the moneyline in Game 1 of the ALCS in the Yankees vs Astros odds on Wednesday (Oct. 19)
  • Jameson Taillon (2022 Playoffs: 0-1, INF ERA) gets the ball for New York, while Houston will counter with Justin Verlander (2022 Playoffs: 0-0, 13.50 ERA)
  • Keep reading for the Yankees vs Astros Game 1 predictions and odds

What’s old is new again in the ALCS. For the third time in six years the Yankees and Astros will square off with a World Series berth on the line, after New York disposed of Cleveland on Tuesday in the ALDS.

Houston won each of the two previous ALCS meetings against New York, and enter Wednesday’s series opener as big favorites in both Game 1 and the series itself.

Yankees vs Astros Game 1 Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
New York Yankees +155 +1.5 (-155) O 6.5 (-125)
Houston Astros -180 -1.5 (+135) U 6.5 (+105)

Odds as of October 18 at Barstool Sportsbook. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code. 

Houston opened up as -180 moneyline favorites in a contest that features a total of 6.5. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37 pm ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas, with 52 degree night-time temperatures on deck.

As for the series odds, the Astros are -170 favorites in the AL Pennant odds, with the Yankees coming back as a +150 underdog. Houston is also the +160 favorite in the World Series odds.

 

DRAFTKINGS
SPORTSBOOK


Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly + a No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day!

LOCK IN PROMO
SIGNUP PROMO
BET $5
GET $200

+ A NO SWEAT NBA SGP

GET PROMO

 

New York vs Houston Probable Pitchers

New York will have less than 24 hours between the ALDS clinching victory over the Guardians, and the ALCS opener in Houston. Nestor Cortes pitched a three-hit gem versus Cleveland on Tuesday on short rest, and now the Yankees will turn to Jameson Taillon versus the Astros.

Taillon was given a rude awakening to postseason baseball last Friday, when he didn’t record an out in a 4-2 loss to the Guardians. The 30-year-old coughed up three hits and two runs in a relief role, which followed a disappointing end to his regular season. He was rocked in his final start by Texas of all teams, coughing up seven hits, four runs and a homer over 6 innings.

Taillon faced the mighty Astros once during the regular season and it did not go well. He surrendered 10 hits and six runs over 5.2 innings, and was taken deep twice. Houston batters have fared very well against him over their careers positing a .320/.346/.613 slash line in 75 at-bats.

Taillon vs Verlander 2022 Stats

Jameson Taillon
VS
Justin Verlander
14-5 Record 18-4
3.91 ERA 1.75
1.13 WHIP 0.83
.246 OBA .186
4.7 SO/W Ratio 6.4

The Astros will counter with ace Justin Verlander, who’s looking to bounce back from an atrocious 2022 playoff debut. Verlander allowed 10 hits and six runs, both postseason career-highs, to the Mariners in Game 1 of the ALDS, but was bailed out by Yordan Alvarez and the Houston bats at the last minute.

That performance was a clear outlier for AL Cy Young odds favorite, as prior to that start he’d been virtually unhittable. Verlander led MLB in ERA and WHIP this season, while finishing second in wins. He blanked his opponents in four of his final six regular season starts, yielding just four runs total over a 32 inning stretch.

Verlander was 1-0 against the Yankees this season, allowing just one run over 7 innings, and has a sparkling track record against the batters in their lineup. Current New York hitters are just 25-for-155 all-time against Verlander, with a .193 OBP.

NYY vs HOU Betting Trends

New York and Houston were two of the top-three lineups in the AL during the regular season, ranking top-three in scoring, slugging and OPS, and top-two in homers.

The long ball was at the forefront of the Yankees ALDS clinching victory, as both AL MVP odds frontrunner Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton went deep.

New York clubbed six home runs over the final three games versus Cleveland, erasing a 2-1 series deficit along the way. However, the long ball might not be able to save them against Houston. No team gave up fewer home runs during the regular season than the Astros, while their bullpen is fresh off holding Seattle to nine hits and only one over 20 innings of relief.

Houston’s lineup meanwhile, didn’t exactly light the world on fire in the ALDS after their eight-run Game 1 outburst. They managed just five runs over the subsequent two games, while Alvarez and Jose Altuve combined to go hitless over their final 15 at-bats.

In seven games against New York this season, Houston produced a measly .218 batting average, their lowest against any team other than Baltimore.

Game 1 Yankees vs Astros Prediction

This is such a tough sport for the Yankees, and we shouldn’t be surprised if they put up a dud at the plate in Game 1. First, they’re facing arguable the best pitcher in baseball, a man that has absolutely dominated them in the past.

Second, if and when Verlander exits the contest, New York will still have to deal with baseball’s best bullpen. Finally, the Yankees were chugging beers and celebrating their ALCS appearance less than 24 hours before Wednesday’s game, and still had to hop on a plane to travel across the country.

Pick: New York Yankees Under 2.5 Runs and Houston Astros Win (+120)

 

Author Image