Bellator 261 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview – Johnson vs Moldavsky
- Bellator puts an interim heavyweight title on the line in the main event of Bellator 261 on Friday, June 25th
- A potential number one contender bout at flyweight takes place in the co-main event
- See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full Bellator 261 main card, below
Bellator is back in their bubble at the Mohegan Sun in Uncasville, Connecticut on Friday, June 25th, for Bellator 261. In the main event, UFC veteran Tim Johnson is set to headline his second Bellator event as he battles rising contender Valentin Moldavsky for the interim heavyweight title. The co-main event sees former UFC title challenger Liz Carmouche takes on the undefeated contender, Kana Watanabe.
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The interim heavyweight title is created due to the fact heavyweight champ Ryan Bader is currently fighting in the light heavyweight grand prix.
Bellator 261 airs live on Showtime and on YouTube for Canadians on June 25, 2021, at 9 PM EST. The table below shows odds for the main card followed by best bets. Make sure to take a peek at the latest sportsbook promos to make the most of your wagers.
Bellator 261 Odds
| Fighter | Odds at FanDuel |
|---|---|
| Tim Johnson | +230 |
| Valentin Moldavsky | -300 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Liz Carmouche | -230 |
| Kana Watanabe | +184 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Daniel Weichel | +116 |
| Keoni Diggs | -140 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Myles Jury | +120 |
| Sidney Outlaw | -146 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Soren Bak | -300 |
| Bobby Lee | +230 |
Odds as of June 23
Can Johnson Pull Off Another Upset?
Tim Johnson’s start to his Bellator career couldn’t have gone worse as he suffered back-to-back first-round KO losses to Cheick Kongo and Vitaly Minakov. Yet, since then, he has gone 3-0, including upset wins over Kongo and Tyrell Fortune. Moldavsky, meanwhile, has looked dominant in Bellator, but he hasn’t fought the highest level of competition, and Johnson will be a tough test.
Johnson & Moldavsky Recent Fights
| Cheick Kongo, win by split decision | Fight 1 | Roy Nelson, win by decision |
| Matt Mitrione, win by TKO | Fight 2 | Javy Ayala, win by decision |
| Tyrell Fortune, win by KO | Fight 3 | Linton Vassell, win by decision |
| Vitaly Minakov, loss by KO | Fight 4 | Ernest James, win by TKO |
This is a very intriguing matchup as both Johnson and Moldavsky are known for their wrestling, so it will be interesting to see who decides to take it to the ground.
The Russian in Moldavsky is more of a grinder where if he doesn’t get the first takedown he will continue to shoot for takedowns until he gets it. Johnson, meanwhile, has improved on the feet and has proven to have one-punch KO power, but his chin is still a concern for me as we have seen him get knocked out several times.
Johnson vs Moldavsky Stats
| 36 | Age | 29 |
| 6’3″ | Height | 6’1″ |
| 78″ | Reach | 75″ |
| 2 | Bellator Finishes | 1 |
On the feet, Johnson is the better striker as Moldavsky is still trying to get the timing and basics down. Although he has been dominant, he hasn’t fought the highest level of competition as his toughest fighter is probably Roy Nelson, who has never been known for his takedown defense. Another big part of this fight is the fact they are fighting 25 minutes, so whether or not either of them will be able to go for that long will be intriguing.
Ultimately, I do expect Johnson to have some success early on in the feet but eventually, Moldavsky should be able to start taking down to the UFC veteran and grind him out. Moldavsky’s wrestling will eventually be too much, and he’ll eventually get the TKO win to become the interim champ.
Pick: Valentin Moldavsky (-300)
Does the Winner Get a Title Shot?
Liz Carmouche was a surprise UFC release as she got cut after she lost a very lackluster decision to Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC flyweight title in 2019. She’s now 2-0 in Bellator and gets a tough test in Watanabe who’s 10-0-1 and has been very impressive in Bellator.
Carmouche & Watanabe Recent Fights
| Vanessa Porto, win by decision | Fight 1 | Alejandra Lara, win by split decision |
| DeAnna Bennett, win by submission | Fight 2 | Ilara Joanne, win by TKO |
| Valentina Shevchenko, loss by decision (UFC title fight) | Fight 3 | Hee Eun Kang, win by submission |
| Lucie Pudilova, win by decision | Fight 4 | Justyna Haba, win by decision |
This is an intriguing matchup, but Carmouche will be too much for the undefeated prospect. They have very similar styles but Carmouche is the better wrestler and will be able to grind Watanabe out on the ground and use her jab to piece her up to get the win. It seems destined to go the distance, and although many don’t like Carmouche’s style, she uses it effectively to get the win.
Pick: Liz Carmouche (-230)
Other Bellator 261 Picks:
- Keoni Diggs (-140): This is a big step up in completion for Diggs but is so well-rounded that he’ll mix in his wrestling and striking to grind out a decision win.
- Myles Jury (+120): I’m surprised Jury is the underdog as he’s the better all-around fighter but will use his striking to out volume Outlaw and win a decision.
- Soren Bak (-300): Bak should be able to use his wrestling to take Lee down and eventually get the submission win.
Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.
