Celtics vs Heat Series Odds, Picks & Spread for Eastern Conference Final
- Boston is a -475 favorite in the Celtics vs Heat series odds for the Eastern Conference Final
- The Heat are just the second 8th seed to reach the Conference Finals, joining the ’99 Knicks
- Check out the opening Celtics vs Heat series odds here, plus the latest injury news and predictions
A Celtics vs Heat series was dangerously close to happening in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Boston hovered around the East’s top seed all season long, only to finish behind Milwaukee once the dust settled. Miami meanwhile, was fighting for one of the final postseason berths for the bulk of the campaign and had to survive the Play-In Tournament just to make the dance.
Instead of an opening round matchup, they’ll not meet in the Eastern Conference Final. The Heat became just the second 8th seed to ever make the Conference Finals on Friday, while the Celtics survived a gruelling seven game series with the 76ers to reach the final four.
Celtics vs Heat Series Odds
| Team | Series Spread | Series Winner | Series Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | -1.5 (-175) | -475 | Over 5.5 (-125) |
| Miami Heat | +1.5 (+145) | +370 | Under 5.5 (+105) |
Online sportsbooks aren’t giving Miami much of a chance to emerge victorious from the NBA Conference odds. They’ve opened the Celtics as -475 favorites in the NBA odds, with a series spread of -1.5 that is heavily juiced.
Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final goes Wednesday in Boston, with Game 2 set for Friday there as well.
Odds as of May 14 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Heat vs Celtics.
Miami Heat Betting Trends
Miami has taken quite the path to reach this point. They lost their opening Play-In Tournament game versus Atlanta, setting up a win or go home matchup with Chicago. The Heat rallied in the final quarter of that contest to steal a victory, and earn a matchup with top-seeded Milwaukee.
Miami dispatched the Bucks in five games, led by some incredible Jimmy Butler performances. Playoff Jimmy averaged 30 points through the series first three games, then dropped 56 and 42 point efforts in Games 4 and 5 to eliminate Milwaukee.
Jimmy Butler is the 1st player in Heat history to average 30 points through his first 10 games of a postseason. pic.twitter.com/D8YRQPjpEm
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 13, 2023
Butler wasn’t as dominant offensively in the Heat’s second round series win over the Knicks, sitting out Game 2 with a sprained ankle, but he didn’t need to be. Miami held New York below 103 points four times, and below 93 twice.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about their run is that they’ve accomplished it without second leading scorer Tyler Herro. The sharpshooter suffered a broken hand after Game 1 of the opening round and hasn’t played since. His initial diagnosis was a six-week recovery, which would put him in line to return midway through the ECF.
Miami has the reputation of being a physical, well coached team, and the numbers bear that out. They rank first among all playoff teams in deflections, loose balls recovered, charges drawn and screen assists.
This year marks their ninth Conference Finals appearance since 2000. It’s their seventh trip in the last 13 seasons, and their third in the past four years.
Boston Celtics Betting Analysis
The Celtics have been at or near the top of the NBA Championship odds since Opening Night, but they haven’t exactly looked like world beaters in the playoffs. They struggled to put Atlanta away, ultimately prevailing in six games, and needed to win a Game 6 on the road before holding serve at home in Game 7 versus the Sixers.
Jayson Tatum struggled in multiple contests versus the Philadelphia defense, but he was a man on a mission in Game 7. Tatum poured in 51 points to help Boston coast to victory, adding 13 rebounds and five assists.
Jayson Tatum is the first player with 50-points, 10-rebounds & 5-assists in a series clinching win. pic.twitter.com/EF10gwtSUe
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 14, 2023
The duo of Tatum and Jaylen Brown is one of the most potent in basketball, and is the primary reason why Boston is number two in offensive rating in the postseason. The Celtics are also capable of being extremely stingy on defense. They’ve been inconsistent at that end of the floor for much of the playoffs, but they reminded everyone just how good they can be in the series clinching win over Philly.
Boston held the Sixers to 37.3% from the field, and just 88 points. That was the second time in the series they held them below 90 points, and they limited the reigning MVP Joel Embiid to only 15 points on 5-of-18 shooting.
Marcus Smart and Derrick White are phenomenal backcourt defenders, while the duo of Al Horford and Robert Williams III gives Boston excellent rim protection and shot blocking.
The Celtics now move on to the Conference Finals for the second consecutive season and the fifth time in the past seven seasons overall.
Celtics vs Heat Series Predictions
This will mark the second consecutive meeting between these two teams with a Finals berth on the line. Boston took down Miami in seven games last year to win the East, and we should expect another long, hard fought series. Both rosters are eerily similar to a season ago, with Boston adding bench depth in the form of Malcolm Brogdon.
Heat vs Celtics 2022-23 H2H Results
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 24 | Celtics | Heat | MIA, 98-95 |
| Dec. 2 | Heat | Celtics | MIA, 120-116 |
| Nov. 30 | Heat | Celtics | BOS, 134-121 |
| Oct. 21 | Celtics | Heat | BOS, 111-104 |
The Celtics are undoubtedly a deserving favorite, but a -475 price tag is outrageous. They’ve had to fight and claw their way through two series, while the Heat have handled their business with relative ease. Miami is only going to get stronger once Herro returns, but even without him, they’ve perfected a formula for success.
Expect this matchup to push at least six games, and sprinkle a little on the series to go the distance as well. Exactly 7 games pays +250, while over 5.5 games sports reasonable -125 odds.
Picks: Over 5.5 Games (-125), Exactly 7 Games (+250)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
