Clippers vs Pelicans Picks and Odds

• The Los Angeles Clippers and New Orleans Pelicans matchup on March 14th
• New Orleans lost the previous matchup on January 13th
• Get the latest odds, betting analysis and a pick below

Playing for the second time this season, the Los Angeles Clippers are favored by 5.5 points over the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Clips won their last meeting in January, and sitting fourth in the Western Conference, it’s no surprise to see them as relatively comfortable favorites. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are expected to play, with Pat Beverley (knee) the only injury concern for Ty Lue.

The Pelicans are without JJ Redick, who will remain away from the team as he recovers from a heel injury.

Clippers vs Pelicans Odds

Odds taken on Mar 14 from FanDuel.

Pelicans Can’t Get Stops

Ranking 28th in defensive rating on the season, the Pelicans’ defense is holding them back. The Clippers own the second-best offensive rating. This is far from an ideal matchup for New Orleans, who have been inconsistent in both effort and application on the defensive end.

Brandon Ingram, in particular, has been singled out for criticism, and he will have a major role to play on Sunday, likely guarding either Paul George or Kawhi Leonard.

Like watch Brandon Ingram on defense here and tell me he isn't one of the worst defensive players in the league this year https://t.co/PTJDRX4oaR

— Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) March 12, 2021

The frustration for Stan Van Gundy stems from what should be at least a competent defensive team. Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe are elite on that end. Zion Williamson, Ingram and Steven Adams should all be average or better. Teams are just scoring on them so easily.

Much of this is down to three-point shooting. The Pels rank 11th in opponent points in the paint, and they do a good job on the boards, sitting fourth in defensive rebounding percentage. Teams are taking and making a lot of threes against them. New Orleans sits 29th in opponent three-point attempts and 29th in opponent three-point percentage.

The Efficiency Landscape. Last 15 Games. What Jumps Out? pic.twitter.com/aZul8AajdD

— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) March 12, 2021

This is a worrying sign facing a Clippers team shooting over 42% from beyond the arc. Los Angeles’ offense generates a lot of corner threes, too.

The Zion Challenge

Guarding Zion Williamson is quickly becoming the least fun task in the NBA. Since having the ball in his hands, Williamson has been an unstoppable prospect for opposing defenses. This is a particular concern for the Clippers, who, while equipped with potential defenders, rank in the bottom 10 in the league in opponent field goal percentage at the rim.

Williamson’s usage rate has been up at 30% over the last 10 games. It was down in the mid-20’s in the opening weeks of the season. He’s got a higher assist rate than Jayson Tatum and other stars over this run. Despite going 4-6, the Pelicans are ninth in offense. Making Williamson the ball handler has unlocked the New Orleans offense, and it presents a serious challenge for a Clippers team which has been up and down on the defensive end.

The Pelicans are still in the post-season race thanks to their offense. Ball is shooting lights out, and Ingram remains a reliable scorer, but so much of it is down to Williamson. This is a real test of the Clippers defense.

Records Favor Clips

The Pels are 3-6 on the season with a rest disadvantage as they have here. Inconsistency has plagued their season. They came back from the All-Star break with a blowout loss to Minnesota, and blew out  Cleveland a day later. They have struggled against teams above .500, however, owning a 7-13 record so far. The Clippers’ 14-3 record against sub-.500 teams is bettered only by the Utah Jazz.

Although underwhelming ATS on the season, the Clippers come into this game with a couple of nights rest after thumping the Golden State Warriors. New Orleans has the third-worst ATS record in the association.

Given the Pelicans’ league-leading record at hitting the over and the Clippers’ highly efficient offense, the over will get a lot of money on it even at 235.5. The Clippers ATS is the pick here, though – this Pelicans defense won’t be able to get enough stops to stay in the game.

Pick: Los Angeles Clippers -5.5 (-114)