James Harden Heavily Favored to Be NBA’s Scoring Leader in 2020-21 Season

• James Harden is the heavy favorite to win his fourth scoring title in 2020-21
• Damian Lillard, Luka Doncic and Steph Curry are in contention behind the former MVP
• See the full odds for all top players and where the best bets lie within the story below

Despite trade rumors and a delay turning up to training camp, James Harden is the massive favorite to lead the NBA in scoring in 2020-21. Harden has led the league in scoring in each of the last three seasons, winning an MVP along the way and being named to All-NBA First Team four seasons in a row. He has established himself as one of the greatest scorers in league history, but the desire to be traded could impact his chances of winning a fourth scoring title.

Although sitting comfortably as NBA championship odds favorites, the Lakers star duo of Anthony Davis and LeBron James are outsiders in the scoring title odds. A quartet of guards sit behind Harden, led by Blazers star Damian Lillard.

The table below has the odds for the top 15 in the scoring title market.

2020-21 NBA Scoring Leader Odds

Odds taken from William Hill on Dec 7th

Harden’s Chances

History suggests Harden is the obvious, and perhaps only, bet. He has three scoring titles to his name. The former Sixth Man of the Year scored 34.3 per game last season, almost four points more than anyone else. The margin was a whopping 8.1 points in 2018-19 as Harden broke records on his way to 36 per game. He was 2.3 points ahead of Anthony Davis in 2017-18.

Even in 2016-17, Harden was only stopped from winning the scoring title by an epic campaign from his former teammate Russell Westbrook. In the two years before that, Harden was second to Steph Curry and Westbrook again. This has been a phenomenal, record-altering run of sustained scoring. Harden’s durability in the regular season is remarkable.

The end of Mike D’Antoni’s time in Houston could see a slight change, but Stephen Silas will still run the majority of the offense through Harden. He’s still going to be among the top players in shot attempts and lead the league in free throws.

It’s impossible to preview Harden’s season without speculating about his future. If he’s dealt to the Nets as he wants, a scoring title is very unlikely alongside Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving (who both feature in the top 15 in the table above).

Harden’s usage rate took a rare step back last season thanks to the arrival of Westbrook. No one really knows what John Wall will look like or how much he’ll have the ball in his hands – it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Harden’s usage nudge back towards 40%. Wall can be a better off-ball player than Westbrook, and through injury, minutes restrictions or load management, there’s likely to be a lot of time with Harden on the court without Wall.

If there were no reports of trade requests, it would be hard to see past Harden in this market, but there’s such uncertainty over his future. How committed is he to the Rockets? Will he be in shape for the start of the season? Will he get traded?

There are too many questions to back Harden at such a short price.

Chef Curry

The Warriors might not be title contenders without Klay Thompson, but Steph Curry is in great position for individual accolades. His highest usage rate in a full season is 32.6% from his spectacular 2015-16 campaign. Seven players were higher than that mark last season – Curry should register a career-high in shot attempts.

His candidacy depends largely on how competitive the Warriors are. They need to be good enough for Curry to play big minutes. Steve Kerr also needs Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre to be enough of a threat as scorers and shooters to keep defenses honest, to avoid box-and-ones and aggressive doubles on Curry. He will get more defensive attention than ever before.

Curry will need to take at least 20 shots per game (something he’s only done once in his career). He will still be able to play plenty off-ball, but it will be interesting to see how much Kerr runs pick-and-roll with Curry and Green or James Wiseman. Maybe Curry doing a Harden impression is their best chance of a high playoff seed.

The best shooter to ever play the game, in a position where he must carry the offense, is a good bet at +700.

Young Gets Help

The Atlanta Hawks made moves to contend this offseason. Trae Young was already growing frustrated with losing, and the Hawks got him support in the shape of Danilo Gallinari, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Rajon Rondo.

Adding more offensive talents might mean fewer shots for Young, but it will also make his life markedly easier after sharing the floor with De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish for much of last season.

Young was fourth in scoring in 2019-20. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo, Harden and Luka Doncic had higher usage rates. He announced himself as a truly elite offensive player, and while his role will change in 2020-21, he will still be the center of this offense.

The arrival of Bogdanovic and Rondo allows Young to operate more off-ball. He had to do everything on the offensive end for the Hawks last season, but with his shooting range and quickness, he will have opportunities to be a menace running off screens and cutting to the basket. In Clint Capela, he has a pick-and-roll partner to set screens and stretch defenses.

Atlanta is set up to be a great offensive team. There will be more space for Young. How he adapts to playing off-ball is a big step in his development, and a key part of his case to win the scoring title.

The +1200 is a solid price for a player who ranked third in free throw attempts last season and should become a much more efficient three-point shooter.