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Jazz vs Nuggets Game 1 Picks and Odds

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 8, 2021 · 2:24 PM PST

Were the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz struggling, or coasting through play in the bubble? Two teams that have underperformed since the restart face each other in Round 1 of the NBA playoffs Monday. Check our preview, with odds, analysis and the bet we like for the series opener.
  • The Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets will play Game 1 of their Western Conference series on Monday at 1:30pm ET
  • The Nuggets won all three meetings with the Jazz this season
  • All eight of the Nuggets bubble games have gone over the number

The Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz will get their first-round playoff series started on Monday in a matchup of the No. 3 (Denver) and No. 6 (Utah) seeds in the Western Conference. The Jazz vs Nuggets odds show that Denver is posted as a 3.5-point favorite for Game 1 but which team will have the upper hand?

Jazz vs Nuggets Game 1 Odds

Team Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
Utah Jazz +3.5 (-109) +130 Over 217.5 (-112)
Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-112) -155 Under 217.5 (-108)

Odds as of August 15th

Nuggets Struggling Going Into Playoffs

The Nuggets had a number of odd lineups in the bubble as they didn’t always play with a full deck. However, as we get set for Game 1, it’s undeniable that this team is struggling going into the playoffs as they dropped four of their final five games. Of greater concern is a defense that’s allowed 124.7 points per game over their last six.

Denver actually spent quite a bit of time at the top of the Western Conference this season – fighting for a No. 1, but mostly No. 2 seed. A large part of that was a defense that was Top 10 in the NBA in points per game allowed. Even with their ugly play recently, they still finished the year 11th at 109.2 per game.

At any rate, if the Nuggets can’t clean things up at the defensive end – namely, not giving up more than 15 points per game more than they were on the season – then their playoff run will be short-lived.

Just How Good Or Bad Are The Jazz?

One of the biggest injuries impacting the teams in the bubble was the Jazz losing forward Bojan Bogdanovic. He averaged 20.2 points per game this season with a healthy 3.0 threes per game. The Jazz have had to change the way they function without him and the results haven’t been great.

Utah has dropped five of their last seven games in the bubble and their offense hasn’t looked crisp at all. They’re averaging 114.4 points per game over their last seven, which isn’t bad, but when you consider that they’re giving up 118.2, that’s not going to cut it.

It’s going to be interesting to see just what the Jazz get out of Mike Conley Jr. Deemed to be the team’s x-factor in the preseason, he never really fit in with the roster. However, he scored 20 or more in four of his last six and one of those misses he was resting. He averaged just 13.5 before the All-Star break, so if he’s going to score 20 or more, that could give this team a Big Three.

What’s The Best Bet?

This is mostly a toss up between two teams that have had shaky results in the bubble. Denver has the better roster but they haven’t looked great of late – especially their defense. Meanwhile, the Jazz have been very uneven too, so I have no interest in backing them in Game 1.

I’ll be looking for an over in this game as the Nuggets contests have been flying by the total. All eight of their games have gone over in the bubble and five of the Jazz eight games have gone over too. The last six Nuggets games have averaged 245 points but we have a low number of 217.5 here. Go with the over.

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