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Lakers vs Heat NBA Finals Props – Best Game 4 Player Prop Bets

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Updated Oct 6, 2020 · 7:31 AM PDT

Which prop bets provide the best bets for Game 4 of the NBA Finals? See our picks ahead of Tuesday's game between the Heat and Lakers.
  • The Miami Heat got back in the series thanks to an inspired performance from Jimmy Butler in Game 3
  • After a quiet game on Sunday, the Lakers need Anthony Davis to bounce back in Game 4
  • DraftKings offers an extensive list of player props – we have selected three of the best bets

Points, first field goal, assists, triple-doubles and more can be bet on for Game 4 of the NBA Finals.  The series is led 2-1 by the Los Angeles Lakers after an heroic outing from Jimmy Butler put the Miami Heat back in these Finals.

Miami is waiting on the health of Bam Adebayo ahead of Tuesday’s Game 4. The All-Star center was upgraded from doubtful to questionable on Monday, while it remains very unlikely we see Goran Dragic in this series.

The table below includes three of the best player props for Game 4.

Heat vs Lakers NBA Finals Game 4 Player Props and Odds

Player Over/Yes Odds Under/No Odds
Duncan Robinson Over 11.5 points (-115) Under 11.5 points (-106)
LeBron James To have a triple-double (+215) Not to have a triple-double (-278)
Jimmy Butler Over 6.5 assists (-185) Under 6.5 assists (+150)

Odds taken from DraftKings on October 6th

Robinson to Get Hot From Distance

Duncan Robinson is an elite shooter. He shot almost 45% from beyond the arc on over eight attempts per game in the regular season. They’re Splash Brother numbers.

Unfortunately for Miami, he’s been ice-cold in the Finals thus far, hitting just a quarter of his three-point attempts. The Lakers have gone after Robinson on the defensive end, and he’s not shooting it well of late, but he’s still such a pest for the opposing defense.

The Lakers’ defensive hustle has been part of the reason for his poor shooting. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has often taken the assignment, pursuing Robinson around the perimeter, fighting over screens and contesting shots. That sort of defense isn’t that unusual, however.

Robinson is already accustomed to that level of defensive attention, and with his quick, high release, he often finds a way to drain triples despite good defense.

The absence of Adebayo is a major factor, too. Robinson has been running just as hard as ever, but without Adebayo, a major part of Miami’s offense is missing. Robinson and Adebayo’s two-man game is a staple for the Heat. Expect to see a lot of it if Adebayo returns for Game 4.

With all the eyes on Butler, and perhaps Adebayo, could Robinson get a bit more space on Tuesday? Will he start knocking down shots? It’s reductive to say he’s due for a hot shooting night, because there’s more to it than that, but there are reasons to believe Robinson is set for a big game. The Finals nerves will have waned by this point, and the line at 11.5 seems fair.

Pick: Over 11.5 points (-115)

LeBron Takes Over

LeBron James is second all-time in playoff triple-doubles. He had 13 in the regular season and four in the playoffs so far, and has gone close in all three Finals games. James has got nine or more rebounds in the Lakers’ last seven games.

His assist numbers are the area to look out for when it comes to betting on a triple-double. Rajon Rondo’s performances in these playoffs have made him an integral part of the Lakers’ rotation. Rondo is fourth on the team in Finals minutes, which means more time off-ball for James.

Less time as point guard obviously makes it harder to reach the 10-assist mark, but Rondo had one of his quieter games on Sunday, finishing with five assists and four points.

With the Heat dropping against Rondo in the pick-and-roll, he was less effective. Miami played less zone, and that made it much harder for Rondo to pick apart their defense. The circumstances mean LeBron may look to take over anyway, but Rondo’s subpar Game 3 suggests more time for James as the point guard.

The Heat shrunk the floor more in Game 3 than they did in the first two contests. James still shot over 50% from the field, but he turned it over eight times. Miami are going to force him to give the ball up, and they will take a chance on the Lakers’ so-so perimeter shooting. LeBron will keep finding those shooters when the Heat defense collapses on his drives.

With fewer minutes alongside a center, James has been racking up the rebounds. The assists are the area of concern, but having gone nine, nine and eight in that category in this series so far, a triple-double is well within reach.

Pick: LeBron James to have a triple-double (+215)

Lakers Halt Butler

The Lakers will adjust for Game 4. Butler will not be allowed to force switches so easily. After a performance like Butler put in, coaches are always determined to stop that happening again. Frank Vogel will likely ask his team to be more aggressive with their help and trap more frequently.

Miami has the floor spacing to make this a risky strategy, but the Lakers will (like teams do against LeBron James) force someone else to beat them.

Shooters like Kelly Olynyk, Robinson and Tyler Herro should get better looks. As the Lakers look to avoid another Butler masterpiece, they will give up something else, and Butler has exhibited his playmaking ability in this series already. The assist line has remained at 6.5 throughout despite Butler notching 26 dimes over the last two games.

The potential return of Adebayo is a factor to consider for this market. Butler has embraced being the primary ball handler, dictating the offense while screens are set and shooters buzz around the court. If Adebayo’s back, there will be plenty of possessions along those lines, but Adebayo will take on some of the passing duties, picking out teammates off the short roll or running actions with Herro and Robinson.

Another 13-assist night seems unlikely if Adebayo plays, but going over 6.5 is still a good bet. Butler’s usage will remain high, and the Lakers’ defense could force him to pass the ball more often, particularly if Anthony Davis locks in on the defensive end. Butler is unselfish – he will make the right play and that could lead to another high assist game.

Pick: Over 6.5 assists (-185)

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