Lakers vs Rockets Game 5 Picks and Odds

• The Los Angeles Lakers took a 3-1 lead over the Houston Rockets thanks to their Thursday win
• A fourth quarter push from Houston put the Lakers under late pressure, but they controlled the majority of the game
• Get the latest odds, betting discussion and a pick below

The Los Angeles Lakers are one game away from the Western Conference Finals. The Houston Rockets need to win three games in a row to avoid elimination following their 10-point loss in Thursday’s Game 4.

After taking the opening game of the series, the Rockets have lost three straight. Saturday’s Game 5 could be the last game of their season, and potentially of the Mike D’Antoni era, with the two-time Coach of the Year yet to have his contract extended.

The latest Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers odds heavily favor LA to confirm their Conference Finals place on Saturday, as can be seen in the table below.

Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers Game 5 Odds

Odds taken September 11th

Houston Lose Their Identity

The Rockets shoot by far the most threes in the NBA. Where cold shooting nights have defined their playoff failures in the past, the swing in this series has been about a change in their shot profile. D’Antoni’s team frequently shoot over 50 threes in a game, and over half of their field goal attempts come from beyond the arc.

They shot just 33 in Game 4 after shooting 30 in Game 3. Houston has lost their identity, they have been hounded away from the three-point line, unable to take the shots they want.

A team that shuns the mid-range, the Rockets have been forced into taking more of those shots in this series. The Lakers have rotated brilliantly, protecting the rim and avoiding open threes. Houston shot 56.2% at the rim in Game 4 and took 24% of their shots from mid-range. The combination of inefficiency at the cup and fewer threes makes it hard for the Rockets to win.

• Rockets 3PT attempts per game against OKC: 51

• Rockets 3PT attempts per game against LAL: 38.8

• Rockets 3PT attempts per game against LAL since Rondo returned: 31.5

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simply put: Vogel is forcing Houston from their comfort zone and daring them to meet AD at the rim

— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) September 11, 2020

It’s not just on the offensive end, however. At their best, like at the start of their first-round series, the Rockets have been playing with immense intensity. That has gone missing at points in this series, and notably so in Game 4, which allowed the Lakers to build what proved to be an unassailable lead.

Fast Break Opportunities

The drop in intensity has been reflected in the rebounding battle. They were simply out-hustled at points in Game 4, something they cannot afford with the size they are giving up. The Rockets will always struggle on the boards, but the Lakers were dominant in that respect on Thursday and it allowed them to get a lot of easy points. The Lakers’ 52 rebounds was double as many as Houston grabbed.

Some of this can be put down to mismatches. Anthony Davis is going to get tip ins, and LeBron James will overpower Houston’s smaller players, but letting Rajon Rondo get three offensive rebounds is inexcusable.

A late run saved a potential embarrassment on Thursday. The Rockets were outfought and outplayed for the majority of the game. The Lakers dictated proceedings on both ends. It was not as dramatic as previous playoff meltdowns, but it was a performance of a team not entirely engaged.

Lakers to Finish It on Saturday

The Game 4 preview suggested this series was moving towards the Lakers. What we saw in that game did nothing to change that viewpoint, with James Harden held to two-for-11 from the field.

This series had so much promise when Houston took Game 1. Frank Vogel has been forced to bench his two centers and give considerable minutes to Markieff Morris. Where the Lakers have adapted, the Rockets have not maintained a consistent level of performance and defensive effort.

The Lakers should confirm their place in the Conference Finals on Saturday.

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 (-110)