October 21st NBA Props – Best Player Prop Bets in Mavericks vs Hawks, Bucks vs Heat & Clippers vs Warriors

• The NBA season rolls on Thursday (October 21st) with three games
• Player props are available for many of the league’s biggest stars
• See below to find out where we think the betting value lies

Opening week in the NBA continues on Thursday with a mini three-game slate. Despite the lack of size, the betting action will be fast and furious, especially in the player prop market. That’s because some of the biggest names in the game will be featured including Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Trae Young, Jimmy Butler and Step Curry, to name just a few.

One All-Star who won’t be suiting up is the Clippers Kawhi Leonard. The two-time NBA champion is still recovering from knee surgery with no clear timeline for his return. His absence opens up plenty of opportunity for teammates to step up, and Paul George is likely to see the biggest bump in his usage.

NBA Player Props – Thursday October 21st

Odds as of October 21st at DraftKings.

Prop #1: Paul George Over 25.5 Points

With Leonard on the shelf for part of the West Semis and the entire West Finals, George stepped up his game in a big way. LA is expecting more of the same this season. In the final eight playoff games of last season, George averaged 30 points per contest, and eclipsed 25.5 points six times.

Paul George on playing w/out Kawhi and what he says he learned watching Kawhi in 2019-20 when roles flipped and PG sat out the season’s start.

“He led the team when I was out, kept us competitive, kept us in it. Now it’s essentially my turn to lead the team and keep us afloat” pic.twitter.com/jpqMvNRbhC

— Andrew Greif (@AndrewGreif) October 20, 2021

His usage jumps from 29.9 percent to 34.1 percent without Leonard, while his scoring index leaps from 0.76 to 0.95. Thursday’s matchup versus the Warriors features a slate high 226.5 points, and there’s little chance the Clippers approach their implied team total (111.5) unless George has a big night.

https://twitter.com/BolWrld/status/1451164826923896833

Golden State was one of better defensive teams a season ago, but the sheer amount of opportunity George is projected to see should get him over this total even if he isn’t hyper efficient.

Add to the fact that Steph Curry will be on the other side, and this matchup profiles for an epic back-and-forth battle between two superstars.

Prop #2: Jimmy Butler Under 6.5 Assists

The Miami Heat made a big move in the offseason bringing in Kyle Lowry, which should take a significant amount of the offensive burden off Jimmy Butler’s shoulders.

Butler led the Heat with a 26.2 percent usage rate last season, but we should expect that number to drop now that Lowry will be the primary ball handler.

Jimmy Butler on the pace Kyle Lowry plays with: "It's a blessing and sometimes it's a curse, because you have to be in some real great shape to be out there in what we call the Kyle Chaos." #MiamiHeat pic.twitter.com/1aVlp9WfUv

— Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg) October 16, 2021

Butler averaged a career-high 7.1 assists per game in 2020-21, a full assist more than any of his previous nine seasons. With Lowry running the point, Butler should be able to focus more on scoring, which will be needed on Thursday versus the Bucks as a 2.5-point underdog.

Lowry has assist averages of 8.7, 7.5, and 7.3 over the past three season and that’s definitely going to eat into the amount of dimes that Butler will be able to rack up.

Note, Butler only cleared 6.5 assists in 33% of his final 12 games of last season, and we should expect that percentage to decrease in contests where Lowry is healthy.