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Odds Favor Dirk Nowitzki to Retire Before 2019-20 Season

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated May 14, 2020 · 3:03 PM PDT

Dirk Nowitzki
While it seems likely he would retire, there's a strong case Dirk Nowitzki returns for a 21st season. Photo by Scott Mecum (Flickr)
  • Dirk Nowitzki is in his 20th year, all with the Mavericks
  • Injuries and rest have forced him to miss 29 games 
  • Will Nowitzki return for a retirement tour next season?

I don’t care what anyone says: retirement tours are cool.

Especially when they are the iconic stars that have dotted our NBA consciousness the last 10-15 years and still doing prominent things.

Perhaps it’s only fitting that after Dwyane Wade submitted one of the memorable moments of the NBA season as part of his “One Last Dance” Wednesday night, another All-NBA fixture many thought was riding into the sunset is weighing the possibility of a 21st season in the Association.

While oddsmakers are pinning their favorite bet on this being Dirk Nowitzki’s final season, can we be so sure? You’ll see that there’s a worthy wager on the long shot.

Dirk Nowitzki Retirement Odds

Will Dirk Nowitzki Retire Before Game 1 of 2019-20 Season? Odds
Yes -200
No +150

*Odds taken 02/28/19

Mavericks on the Cusp of Something

Owner Mark Cuban, in his quest to land marquee talents to pair with Dirk in the back half of his prime, allowed his title team to disband, with patchwork rosters pushing the Mavs further away from the promised land.

In the seven seasons since winning the NBA title in a stunning upset over the Miami Heat in 2010, the Mavericks have missed the playoffs three times and been bounced in the first round four other times.

But something wild happened this summer. Dallas swapped their fifth pick for Atlanta’s third pick, delivering them Luka Doncic, the franchise’s first true blue-chip prospect since Nowitzki or Steve Nash.

They weren’t done. The Mavericks hit another home run trading for Knicks unicorn Kristaps Porzingis and promising wing Tim Hardaway Jr.

Suddenly, Dallas shifted from also-ran to on the rise, with potentially one of the most dangerous teams in the league in the years to come (if Porzingis stays healthy).

In this scenario, not only does Dirk staying seem relevant, but he can let the kids do the heavy lifting, while sliding in as the fourth / fifth option, staying fresh in the clutch. He’s almost overqualified for that role.

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What’s the Best Bet Here?

Nowitzki’s elite skill is still intact: shooting the holy hell out of the basketball.

Leaving him open while Dallas’ young stars wreak havoc is not a great option. Not for a guy that’s a career 38.1% shooter from three and 47% from the field. After missing the first 26 games of the year, he’s worked his way back into the starting lineup. In those two games he’s scored in double digits.

YouTube video

His demeanor and professionalism are the exact influence Porzingis and Doncic could use in these formative years, and his top end skill is still something head coach Rick Carlisle can maximize in a meaningful way.

Nowitzki’s demeanor and professionalism are the exact influence Porzingis and Doncic could use in these formative years.

Nowitizki was likely to quietly exit stage left, legacy intact with the seventh most points scored in NBA history and one of just seven players to crack the 30,000 scoring mark.

But these latest developments have really set up for his own “One Last Dance”, where he has a chance to compete again in the playoffs.

He’s waited too long not to see where this goes. I’d be stunned if he walked away now. Take the value and bet the “no”.

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