Odds Favor James Harden Being Moved by 2021 Trade Deadline
- Odds favor James Harden getting traded before the mid-season deadline in 2021
- Harden reported late to training camp and has reportedly added the Heat and Bucks to his list of possible destinations
- Which teams could deal for Harden during the season?
A James Harden trade has become an inevitability. The Houston Rockets are still adamant they can patch up the relationship, but Harden remains keen to move on. It seems to be a matter of when, not if, Harden is traded. With two years of team control on his contract, though, the Rockets could dig their heels in for the time being. Or, less likely, Harden could have a change of heart if the Rockets are more competitive than expected.
Defying COVID-19 protocols and turning up late to training camp has not massively altered the Harden trade odds. He’s odds-on to be dealt before the deadline, but it isn’t overwhelming. The Rockets’ reluctance to give in and deal their franchise star has clearly impacted the betting.
The table below has the latest odds on Harden being traded before the deadline (likely March 25th, 2021).
James Harden Trade Odds
| Will Harden Be Traded Before 2021 Deadline? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -140 |
| No | +100 |
Odds as of Dec 11.
Houston’s Demands
According to ESPN’s Tim McMahon, the Rockets want to acquire a young, franchise cornerstone and a haul of draft assets. Who counts as a franchise cornerstone is subjective, but this high asking price probably means the Nets’ best trade package is insufficient unless the Rockets view Caris LeVert as a potential All-NBA level player.
Harden, a perennial MVP candidate, is impossible to trade for value. They are not going to get a player as good as him in return. But with The Beard now in his thirties, teams will be very reluctant to give up All-Star talents. The Nuggets probably won’t consider dealing Jamal Murray; the same goes for the Pelicans and Brandon Ingram.
It’s easy to point to the package the Thunder got for Paul George or the Pelicans received for Anthony Davis, but neither of those netted a player as good as the Rockets are looking for. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ingram, the centerpieces of the George and Davis trades, were no more than promising youngsters at the time.
The Rockets are looking for someone established. There’s one name that stands out.
Mid-Season Panic
Harden trade speculation always ends up back at the Sixers. They have control of their picks going forward and, crucially, they have the franchise cornerstone talent that they could potentially deal in Ben Simmons. As yet, there’s no inclination the Sixers will trade Simmons, but that could change before the trade deadline if there’s further evidence that the Simmons and Joel Embiid pairing isn’t going to work.
The Bucks do not have the young talent or picks for a deal to work, even if Harden is open to a trade. The Heat are not going to give up Bam Adebayo. Miami becomes interesting if Tyler Herro takes another leap in the opening months of the season. Could Houston convince themselves that he’s good enough to be the center of a Harden trade package? The Heat only have a couple of tradeable future firsts too, which makes a deal very unlikely.
We can concoct scenarios where the Celtics consider moving Jaylen Brown or the Raptors build something around Pascal Siakam. They’re the stature of player the Rockets are looking for, but both potential trades are far-fetched.
Landing spots for Harden are ultimately very limited. Houston’s asking price rules out most of the league, and many teams who can meet that asking price will have no interest in doing so.
Houston Might Settle
The Nets package isn’t terrible. It’s clearly not enough for the Rockets at this point, and the organization clearly doesn’t want to settle for a subpar trade, but it might be the best offer they get.
If we get to the trade deadline and Harden still wants out, will the Rockets be able to turn down a LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen and a several firsts?
The next few weeks – and maybe longer – are a test of the Rockets’ stubbornness. How difficult will Harden make it for them? Will new suitors emerge?
For now, the odds are pretty evenly split. Betting Harden to still be a Rocket after the deadline is probably better value because of how few landing spots there are.
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
