Raptors Atlantic Division Odds Improve to +550 After 3-1 Start; Are They Worth Betting?

• 3-1 start has Toronto’s odds for Atlantic Division three-peat down to +550
• Load-management for Embiid unlikely to hurt 76ers in hunt for Atlantic crown
• Early bench issues leave Raptors behind Celtics in runner-up race

Kawhi Leonard is a Clipper and Danny Green now lines up alongside LeBron James and the Lakers, but the defending NBA-champion Toronto Raptors haven’t let the departure of two starters stop them from shooting out to a 3-1 start to the new season. 

On the heels of their most recent victory against Orlando, the Raptors have seen their NBA divisional odds shorten to +550. Toronto’s average odds have also drastically improved, from +660 in the preseason to +490 today. 

2019-20 Atlantic Division Odds

All odds taken October 29th

Will Philly Exercise Load Management? 

Toronto kept Leonard out of the lineup for ‘load management’ reasons in one game of every back-to-back last season, and against lesser opponents whenever the schedule got cluttered. The strategy worked, even if the Raptors lost out to Milwaukee in the race for the number one playoff seed in the East.

When the postseason arrived, Leonard upped both his game and his minutes, and carried the Raptors to the title.

The Sixers have made no secret of their plan to keep Joel Embiid fresh for a Finals push by giving him more down time this year. Embiid already sat out one game to recover from a sprained right ankle, returning to score 36 points, including the winning free throws, in Monday’s victory over the Hawks. 

At @sixers media day @JoelEmbiid tells me his goal this season is to play more than 70 games for the first time in his career. @NBATV #NBAMediaDay

— Jared Greenberg (@JaredSGreenberg) September 30, 2019

The Raptors didn’t wilt when Kawhi took a load off last season – they mostly kept winning. Expect Philly to do the same this year, whether Embiid is in the lineup that night or not.

They have one of the two best players in the Eastern Conference, a strong supporting cast, and the hunger to win it all after last season’s Game 7 heartbreak against the Raptors. They’re the team to beat in the Atlantic this season.

What About Boston?

Turning disgruntled guard Kyrie Irving into Kemba Walker is a net gain for Boston, even if you believe Irving is the better player. Losing Al Horford to the 76ers leaves a big hole, but in Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Gordon Hayward, there’s no shortage of talent.

Boston already won the first head-to-head meeting between the teams, grinding out a 112-106 home victory last Friday night.

The Raptors are a tempting long shot, to be sure. They’ve got veteran savvy in poised point guard Kyle Lowry and team-first center Marc Gasol. They’ve also got young talent in Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby, who has taken a clear step forward already this season. 

But coach Nick Nurse has openly questioned the defensive chops of incoming free agent forwards Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson, neither of whom has featured in any significant way so far (to be fair, Hollis-Jefferson missed a couple of games because of a sore left groin). 

I asked Nick Nurse about how the new guys are fitting in, namely Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. This was not exactly a ringing endorsement: pic.twitter.com/GqAsHTCISc

— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) October 16, 2019

Other than  Serge Ibaka, and maybe the streaky Norm Powell, there’s not much scoring in Toronto’s second unit, so Nurse will have to mix and match starters into his reserves. Toronto’s bench was outscored 36-18 in the win over Orlando. 

Outside of Marcus Smart, Boston’s bench might not be a who’s who of potential Sixth Man Award winners, but Brad Stevens seems to have more trust in his reserves than Nurse. 

Pick: Philadelphia (-250)