Warriors vs Celtics Game 1 Finals Betting Trends – See Where the Public Money Is and Most Bet Props for Thursday Night
- The NBA public betting trends for Game 1 of the Finals on Thursday, June 2nd are out
- Money is pouring in on the Warriors in both the ATS market and on the moneyline versus the Celtics
- As for the Total, the majority of the money and handle are on the over which has caused a 3.5-point jump from the opening line
Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off tonight and there’s no shortage of storylines to follow. Can the Celtics capture their record breaking 18th title? Can Steph Curry finally win a Finals MVP? The list goes on and on but the main thing bettors are concerned with right now is, where is the money going?
As you can see below in our NBA public betting trends, the betting action leading up to Game 1 has been extremely lopsided in the ATS, moneyline and total markets.
NBA Finals Game 1 Betting Trends
| Teams | Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +3.5 | 14% | 25% | Over 214 | 67% | 67% | +145 | 28% | 31% |
| Golden State Warriors | -3.5 | 86% | 75% | Under 214 | 33% | 33% | -165 | 72% | 69% |
All odds and data as of June 2nd at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Simply put, money has been pouring in on Golden State as a 3.5-point home favorite. 86% of the money and 75% of the against the spread bets are backing the Warriors. It’s a similar story when it comes to the moneyline, but we do see a little more Celtics action in that area. That’s because according to reports, some of the biggest bets recorded for Game 1 are from sharp bettors on Boston to win outright as a +145 ‘dog.
As for the total, 67% of the money and tickets are backing the over, which has caused the line to move a full 3.5-points from where it opened.
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Public Backing Warriors and Over
The public’s infatuation with Golden State in Game 1 is easy to understand. The Warriors are 9-0 at home this postseason, and 7-2 against the spread. They’ve won and covered in four straight at home, and have an average margin of victory of 13 points in their own building during the playoffs.
Stage is set pic.twitter.com/R1lPgL3MuZ
— Chase Center (@ChaseCenter) June 2, 2022
When it comes to the total though, the love is a little harder to comprehend. Sure, 10 of Golden State’s 16 playoff games have cleared the total, but the over is just 5-4 at the Chase Center. Boston has seen 55% of its postseason contests go under, including five of nine road tilts.
The Celtics enter play with the second best defensive rating in the playoffs, and just held Miami below 97 points in three of their last four games. Golden State meanwhile, ranks sixth in defensive rating during the postseason overall, but are 10 points better in that category at home than they are on the road.
If you’re looking to fade the public, hop on the under. The total for this game opened at 210.5 and a 3.5-point jump is simply too high given the quality of defense we should see from both sides.
- Pick: Under 214
Most Bet NBA Player Props – Celtics vs Warriors Game 1
| Rank | Prop | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Poole Over 15.5 Points | +100 |
| 2 | Steph Curry Over 3.5 Threes | -140 |
| 3 | Marcus Smart Over 24.5 Pts+Reb+Ast | -120 |
| 4 | Steph Curry Under 27.5 Points | -105 |
| 5 | Al Horford Over 10.5 Points | -125 |
When it comes to the player prop market, public bettors just can’t help themselves from betting overs. Naturally, sweating an over ticket is much more enjoyable than rooting for someone to fail, however there’s always more outs betting unders. Online sportsbooks know this, and tend to shade over lines on the high side as a result.
Four of the top-five most heavily bet player props for Game 1 are overs, and one in particular is worth fading. Al Horford’s point prop is currently listed at 10.5, a number he hasn’t cleared in seven of his last nine outings.
Al Horford has finally made the Finals after 141 career playoff games, the most in NBA history. pic.twitter.com/2CWGMrwMZs
— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 30, 2022
Horford brings leadership, rebounding and playmaking to the table, but isn’t asked to contribute too much offensively. Sure, a spike game will happen every now and then, but big performances are hard to come by when you’re not getting volume. Horford averaged just 7.5 attempts in the Eastern Conference Final, and was a dreadful 3-of-17 from the field in Games 6 and 7 versus the Heat.
If you want bet an over on Horford look at his rebounding and assist prop. It’s currently listed at 12.5, a line he’s cleared in 10 of his past 13 playoff games.
Pick: Al Horford Under 10.5 Points
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
