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Warriors vs Mavericks Odds and Picks

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Feb 4, 2021 · 6:03 AM PST

Luka Doncic hands up in the air
Luka Doncic and the Mavericks welome in the Golden State Warriors Thursdauy night. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
  • The Golden State Warriors are in Dallas to take on the Mavericks
  • Dallas is 1-3 on the second night of back-to-backs
  • Check the odds, analysis and betting preview below

After losing Klay Thompson before the start of this NBA season, many expected the Golden State Warriors to be right where they are: in the thick of the bottom half of the Western Conference playoff race.

Considering what Dallas accomplished last year, and the statistical season Luka Doncic is having this year, no one could see the Mavericks treading along the West basement.

Their paths collide Thursday in Big D, with the struggling home team still pegged as 4-point favorites.

Warriors vs Mavericks Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Golden State Warriors +4 (-110) +146 N/A
Dallas Mavericks -4 (-110) -174 N/A

Odds from FanDuel taken February 3. Tip-off is Thursday at 7:30pm ET

After a dreadful start to the year, the ‘Dubs are in ninth in the West at 11-10, just behind the Houston Rockets. At one point, the Mavericks were 8-7, before dropping six in a row. A nail-biter over Atlanta Wednesday night has them now at 9-13, 13th in the conference.

Curry Leading The Way

In some ways, this edition of the Warriors harkens back to their recent glory days. Steph Curry is back to his flamethrowing ways, fifth in the NBA in scoring at 28.2 points per game, while also adding 6.1 assists and 5.7 boards. He’s also led the Warriors in scoring in nine of their last 10 games.

Probably the most encouraging stat, though, has been his perfect attendance for the Warriors. After playing all but five games last season, he’s played in every game so far. That it happens to be at an elite level is the bonus.

And they’re still sharing it at a top-tier mark: at 26.7 assists per game, Golden State is tied for sixth in the league with the Pacers. And defensively, they are second only to the Knicks in opponent field goal shooting (44.3%).

But there are big problems for GState, including ranking 23rd in points allowed, surrendering better than 113 points a game. They also surrender the most offensive rebounds per game, which explains why they’re 29th in second-chance points allowed, and 24th in second-chance points allowed.

Mavs Try To Turn Corner

On an individual level, it’s hard not to look at Luka Doncic’s line this year and wonder how Dallas is struggling. He’s averaging 27.2 points, 8.9 rebounds and 9.4 assists. Truth is, Doncic is somehow not playing to his best level, and a lot of that has to do with a disappearing 3-ball.

He’s shooting a brutal 29.7% from deep on seven attempts per game. In fact, the Mavericks as a team are the worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA right now, at a pop-gun 32.7% clip. They were 10th a season ago, shooting it at 36.7%.

But the biggest reason for the regression might be the first column on the stat sheet: games played. Because of injuries and COVID-19 concerns, only two players — James Johnson and Willie Cauley-Stein have played in all 21 games, and only three other players have played 20.

While their roster has been back intact for a few games now, the cohesion and reps together that made them the top team in offensive rating a season ago is just getting back together.

The 122-116 win against the Hawks was a good start. Dallas had a double-digit lead with under three minutes to play, but saw their lead shrink all the way to three with 45 seconds to play before closing it out. Doncic had 27 points, 14 dimes and eight boards to lead the way.

What’s The Best Bet?

Dallas is just 1-3 in the second half of back-to-back games, but the Atlanta game might have been a good blueprint of what they want to do with the Dubs. They hounded Trae Young, running an extra defender his way, forcing the ball out of his hands and turning him into a playmaker instead of scorer, limiting him to 21 points.

That should be the same strategy against Steph Curry. If they’re even slightly successful, that should be enough to win their second in a row.

The pick: Mavericks -4 (-110)

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