Alabama State vs Mississippi Valley State Picks and Odds (Jan 3)

Odds as of January 2nd at BetMGM.

Mo Williams’ team got 15 points from Gerald Liddell and Trace Young added 14 in a 22-point loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders last week. The Hornets had 17 of their 23 turnovers in the first half and dropped to 0-9 on the road with a second consecutive loss to a ranked Big 12 team in Texas.

Meantime, Lindsey Hunter’s club got 14 points from leading scorer Robert Carpenter, continuing his string of double-digit scoring contests to nine straight. But the road team shot only 33.8% from the field and 24.1% (7-of-29) from distance in the 42-point defeat to the UAB Blazers.

After leading then-16th-ranked Texas by 9 points eight minutes into the game on Dec. 22, ASU fell victim to its old bugaboo against Texas Tech. The program ranks dead-last nationally in turnovers, committing over 18 a game. But if there’s a bright side, it’s that Mississippi Valley State is the worst-rated team overall by KenPom in all of college basketball. Associate head coach Trey Johnson, who was on the sideline for Williams as the head coach awaited the birth of his first child, said it best after the Red Raiders defeat.

It's time to reset with SWAC (@theswac) play starting on January 3!#SWARMAS1 x #Team88 pic.twitter.com/HvhxlH1prB

— Alabama State MBB (@BamaStateMBB) December 29, 2021

The Hornets have the SWAC Impact Player of the Week in Liddell, who is also the team’s leading scorer at 11.2 points per game.

Alabama State owns the 25th-toughest schedule in D-1, an impressive achievement considering the SWAC is the worst-rated league in the sport. But the Hornets have challenged themselves already in the 2021-22 slate, facing six teams rated in the top-100 of KenPom’s rankings. They’ve lost to them all (by an average of 18.8 points), only coming relatively close in a 68-60 defeat at Iowa State. ASU’s lone D-1 victory was against North Carolina Central, an 80-74 win in overtime.

This team plays fast (11th in adjusted tempo), but is exceedingly inexperienced. As a result, they rank near the bottom of several categories, including offensive adjusted efficiency and offensive turnover percentage.

Mississippi Valley State Betting Analysis

It’s hard to find positives about the Delta Devils in 2021-22. They’re the 358th-rated team overall by KenPom (out of 358 teams in Division I) and 357th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 358th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Their latest blowout loss (six of their 10 defeats have been by at least 29 points) came on the road to Alabama-Birmingham, which is the 48th-rated team overall.

Final from UAB

Game Leaders:

Points – Robert Carpenter (14)

Rebounds – David McCoy (9)

Assists – David McCoy (5)

Steals – David McCoy (3)

Blocks – Kadar Waller & Robert Carpenter (1)

Next – Wednesday, December 29 at South Florida (6 p.m. CT)#ValleyInMotion 👿#ForkEm 🔱 pic.twitter.com/SVaN9ZzgFF

— Mississippi Valley State Athletics (@MVSUDevilSports) December 23, 2021

Carpenter is the team’s leading scorer (16.3 ppg) and rebounder (4.8 rpg), while sophomore guard Caleb Hunter is chipping in 12.7 points an outing. After that, only one player (Gary Grant) is putting up at least 7 points a game. Outside of an 82-77 loss to Arkansas State on Dec. 11, every loss by the Delta Devils has been by double-digits.

This program is projected to lose every conference game and doesn’t figure to have much of a chance Monday.

Alabama State vs Mississippi Valley State Pick

Alabama State has done something Mississippi Valley State has not done all season: beat a Division I opponent. Sure, that’s not saying much. But the battles that the Hornets have been involved in — with stout competition — figures to aid them in SWAC play.

It’s for that reason I’m going with the road team in this spot.

Pick: Alabama State -9.5 (-110)