Duke vs NC State Odds, Player Props, Predictions & Best NC Betting Promos
- One game back of first place in the ACC, Duke heads to NC State as 5.5-point road favorites on Monday night
- NC State has lost two straight and five of seven, while Duke is 7-1 straight-up in its last eight
- See the Duke vs NC State odds, player props, predictions, and p
Looking to stay within striking distance of top spot in the ACC standings, the #10 Duke Blue Devils (23-6, 14-4 ACC, 6-4 away, 17-11-1 ATS ) travel to Raleigh on Monday night to face the NC State Wolfpack (17-12, 9-9 ACC, 12-4 home, 13-15-1 ATS) at PNC Arena at 7:00 pm ET.
NC State, which started the year 13-4 and 5-1 in ACC play, are now just 17-12 overall this season and an even 9-9 in the conference. The slumping Wolfpack are expected to take another L on Monday night according to the Duke vs NC State odds.
Duke vs NC State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | -5.5 (-120) | -235 | Over 149.5 (-110) |
| NC State Wolfpack | +5.5 (-102) | +190 | Under 149.5 (-110) |
Duke heads to Raleigh as 5.5-point road favorites in Monday’s college basketball odds. The moneyline odds list Duke as -235 chalk while the Wolfpack are +190 to win at home. The game total is currently 149.5. Duke has been one of the better under bets in the country this season at 12-17 O/U, while NC State’s over/under record is almost the inverse at 17-11-1.
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If Duke wins on Monday, it would set up a huge finale against North Carolina next Saturday in Durham. The Tar Heels (15-3 ACC) are currently one game up on the second-place Blue Devils in the ACC standings with a cupcake home game against Notre Dame on Tuesday. If Duke wins out, the teams would share the ACC regular-season title (barring a massive upset by the Irish).
Duke Dominates UVA for Second Straight Lopsided Win
After having their five-game win streak snapped at Wake Forest on Feb. 24, the Blue Devils have posted two consecutive blowout victories, routing ACC-worst Louisville 84-59 on Feb. 28 before demolishing Virginia 73-48 on Saturday. Both wins came at home. Duke, which has five players averaging in double-figures this season, continued to get balanced scoring. Jeremy Roach (14.1 PPG, 3.1 APG) led the team with 19 in the win over Louisville while leading scorer Kyle Filipowski (16.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG) had a game-high 21 against the Cavaliers.
The 48 points surrendered by Duke against UVA was a season-best for Jon Scheyer’s team, who rate 20th in defensive efficiency at KenPom along with eighth on offense and seventh overall.
Duke is just 6-4 in true road games this year but that includes a 4-2 mark in their last six. All three of their true-road setbacks in 2024 have come against teams rated 44th or better at KenPom. NC State heads into Monday’s game just 76th.
Wolfpack Lose Back-to-Back Road Games
NC State returns home from a competitive but ultimately unsuccessful two-game road swing which included a 90-83 loss at Florida State as three-point underdogs and a 79-70 loss at North Carolina as 11-point underdogs. The Wolfpack even took a 45-37 lead into halftime against the ACC-leading Tar Heels before a 14-2 run early in the second half gave UNC a lead it wouldn’t surrender.
Despite winning just two of its last seven games straight-up, NC State is 4-3 against the spread in that span.
Sitting 78th in offensive efficiency and 82nd in defensive efficiency, the Wolfpack don’t do any one thing particularly well. They are outside of the top 100 in the country in three-point percentage, two-point percentage, offensive-rebound percentage, and defensive-rebound percentage.
Senior guard DJ Horne (17.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.2 APG), who transfered from Arizona State in the offseason, has been electric for Kevin Keatts in his first and only season in Raleigh. Horne is shooting 43.1% from three on nearly seven attempts per game.
Duke vs NC State Player Props
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Morsell (NC ST) | 10.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) | 3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov +165 | Un -215) |
| DJ Horne (NC ST) | 17.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) | 3.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) | OFF | 2.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) |
| Jared McCain (DUKE) | 13.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140) | 4.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -185| Un +140) |
| Jayden Taylor (NC ST) | 10.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) | OFF | OFF | OFF |
| Jeremy Roach (DUKE) | 14.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) | 2.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) | 3.5 (Ov +145 | Un -185) | 1.5 (Ov -110 | Un -115) |
| Kyle Filipowski (DUKE) | 15.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) | 8.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) | 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -185) | 0.5 (Ov -170 | Un +130) |
| Mark Mitchell (DUKE) | 12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) | 5.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) | OFF | OFF |
College basketball player props from DraftKings on March 4.
Horne has the highest point total of all the players on the board tonight at 17.5, while Filipowski leads the Blue Devils at 15.5 and also has the highest rebound total at 8.5 O/U.
While Horne, for the season, is only averaging 17.6 PPG, he’s done over 17 points in seven of his last nine games, including 20 points last time out against UNC and a season-high 32 against Syracuse on Feb. 20.
Duke vs NC State Prediction
Duke’s propensity to roll lesser competition is much more prevalent in Durham than it is on the road, and this is a massive game for NC State. Currently tied with FSU for eighth in the conference, the Wolfpack are just a game up on #10 Virginia Tech. The bottom six seeds (#10-15) have to play in the opening round of next week’s ACC Tournament, while #5-9 get a bye to the second round and the top-four seeds get a double-bye.
I expect NC State’s best from the opening tip and wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they take a significant lead early on. The Wolfpack are currently listed at a lengthy +165 to win the first half, which amounts to just a 37.74% implied win probability.
Duke vs NC State pick: NC State first-half moneyline (+165) – two units
Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:
- ATS: 16-16 (-1.48 units)
- Moneyline: 2-7 (-6.48 units)
- Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
- Player props: 2-2 (+0.78 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
