Fresno State vs California Odds, Lines and Spread (Nov. 28)

• California is a 2.5-point home favorite over Fresno State
• Fresno State is 3-1 ATS
• Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

California (2-4) is a 2.5-point home favorite against Fresno State at 9 pm Sunday on the Pac-12 network. Cal returns home after losing to No. 23 Florida 80-60 and No. 21 Seton Hall 62-59 in the Fort Myers Tip-Off.

Fresno State (5-0) beat previously undefeated Santa Clara to win the SoCal Challenge Surf Division its last time out.

Fresno State vs California Odds

Odds from FanDuel on Nov. 27

California is 7-3 straight up in the season series and has won all four at Haas Pavilion. The teams split the most recent pair in a home-and-home set in 2018-19. The Bears won 69-63 two years ago after Fresno won 95-73 in 2018. Both winners covered.

Fresno State is 5-0  for the first time since the 2015-16 season, when they won the 2016 Mountain West tournament to make the NCAA tournament field. The Bulldogs have not won their first six since 2006.

Fresno State’s Big O

SoCal Challenge MVP Orlando Robinson, who declared for the NBA draft last summer before pulling his name back, is the leader of a 1`2-12 team that returned 90 percent of its scoring and 89 percent of its minutes played from a year ago.

Robinson, a 6’11 foot junior forward, had 65 points and 24 rebounds in the three-game SoCal Challenge, which began with a campus victory over Idaho before wins over Pepperdine and Santa Clara in San Juan Capistrano, Calif.

Robinson is averaging 19.6 points and 9.4 rebounds with a pair of double-doubles while shooting 53.2 percent from the field. He has increased his scoring and rebounding averages every season, from 12.2/6.6 as a freshman to 14.6/9.2 as a sophomore, and has shown a nice touch — 81.8 percent free-throw shooting.

Robinson, who projects as a stretch four rather than a low post player at the next level, has shown a soft touch, will face his most physical test of the young season against Golden Bears’ center Andre Kelly, a 6’9, 255-pound junior who plays almost exclusively in the low post.

I mean, wouldn’t you dance too if you just won the Surf Division Championship title at the #SocalChallenge? 💃🏽😍🏆 @FresnoStateMBB @CBSSportsNet #SoCalChallenge2021 | #GoDawgs | #SurfDivisionChampions pic.twitter.com/Pl2N9nM5B9

— SoCal Challenge (@SoCal_Challenge) November 25, 2021

Fresno State has a plus-9. 8 rebound margin and returnees 6’0 guard Isaiah Hill (11.2 points, 3.6 assists) and 6’4 guard Jordan Campbell  (11 points, 4.8 rebounds) support Robinson.

Arizona transfer guard Jemarl Baker, out with a knee injury earlier this season, is questionable for the Cal game for undisclosed reasons.

Golden Bears Scuffling

California finished last (and last in scoring) in the Pac-12 last season and leading scorer Matt Bradley transferred to San Diego State, leaving the Golden Bears looking for others to step up.

Forwards 6’9 Andre Kelly (16.5 points a game) and 6’8 Grant Anticevich (11.3) have been the Bears’ most reliable scorers. Charlotte grad transfer 6’4 Jordan Shepherd is averaging 12.5 points but is shooting only 35.1 percent from the field.

https://youtu.be/aA2bscXtlo4

Returning point guard Joel Brown is averaging almost as many turnovers (2.2) as assists (3.0).

One Way To Win, Cover

An official scorer’s error helped California to a spread-covering, 75-68 double-overtime home victory over Southern Utah on Nov. 18.

Southern Utah’s Jacob Spurgin made two free throws for a 43-34 lead with 14:02 remaining, but he was credited with only make, keeping the score 42-34. Pac-12 Network replays showed Spurgin made both shots. Southern Utah coach Todd Simon said he spoke to the scorer’s table and the officiating crew, but the score was not changed.

The Bears were a 3-point favorite. Brown missed a layup at the buzzer as regulation play ended, and Anticevich made a game-tying jumper with seven seconds left in the first overtime, Cal scored the first eight points in the second overtime.

By the Numbers

California and Fresno are among the most deliberate offenses in NCAA Division 1. Cal averages 65.4 possessions per 40 minutes per KenPmom,  which is 325th among the 358 Division I schools. Fresno State is just behind, at 64.8, ranking 339th. Because of the slow pace, both are in the top third in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). The Bears are shooting 42.4 percent from the field and are holding opponents to 41.4 percent.

Fresno State ranks is No. 116 in KenPom adjusted efficiency margin.  Cal is 122nd.

These teams are too even and play it too close to the vest to do anything but take the points.

The pick: Fresno State+2.5 (-110)