Illinois vs Rutgers Picks and Odds
- Illinois (5-2) heads to Rutgers (5-0) on Sunday, Dec. 20, at 1:00 PM ET
- Both teams are coming off strong showings in their Big Ten openers and appear destined for a tight matchup
- The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below.
What happens when a team with the eighth-ranked offensive efficiency in NCAA Division I faces a team with the 11th-ranked defensive efficiency? We won’t have to wonder much longer, but that’s what will be happening when #13 Illinois battles #19 Rutgers on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
The Fighting Illini shook off a recent loss by blowing out their first Big Ten opponent, Minnesota. The last five games for Illinois have gone over the total. While Rutgers has cruised to an unbeaten streak that is five games long to start the season.
Illinois vs Rutgers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Point Spread | Over/Under Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| #13 Illinois | N/A | +1.0 (-110) | Over 144.0 (-105) |
| #19 Rutgers | N/A | -1.0 (-110) | Under 144.0 (-115) |
Odds as of Dec. 19th, 2020.
How They’ve Fared So Far
Illinois might only be 2-2 this month, but that’s not so bad when you consider all four of its opponents are ranked 55th or better by KenPom: Baylor (2nd), Duke (12th), Missouri (35th) and Minnesota (55th).
The Curbelo-Cockburn Connection.
𝙍𝙄𝘿𝙄𝘾𝙐𝙇𝙊𝙐𝙎 play from three different angles. #Illini | #EveryDayGuys pic.twitter.com/NP4jpQZOtA
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) December 18, 2020
The common theme in both of the Illini’s losses is that they struggled to score from 3-pt. range. They shot a combined 10-for-31 (32.3 percent) in defeats against Baylor and Missouri, despite posting a 43.2 percent 3-pt. shooting percentage on the season (10th in D-I). Most recently, Illinois trounced Minnesota, 92-65, shooting a more palatable 7-for-19 (36.8 percent) from deep.
Rutgers’ unbeaten record has been built by a defense that has only allowed one of five opponents to surpass the 70-point mark. After beginning the season with weaker opponents, the Scarlet Knights have most recently topped Syracuse (30th in KenPom’s rankings) and Maryland (51st) by a combined 24 points.
It's time to put some respect on @RutgersMBB name.
I caught up w/ Ron Harper Jr. @__RHJR about their great start. #Rutgers #B1G #RHoops pic.twitter.com/FlnL1K55bg— Justin Walters (@JustinWaltersTV) December 18, 2020
It’s easy to see what Rutgers has struggled most with, though: free throw shooting. They are shooting just 57.3 percent as a team, which is 314th in D-I.
ATS Analysis
The Illini are 4-3 against the spread, and six of their seven games have swung really far away from the spread in one direction or another. In all four of their ATS wins, for example, they covered by at least 16.5 points. Their three ATS losses, however, have come by an average of 9.3 points each.
Does that help prospective bettors? Not really. It just means that your pick will probably be really correct or really incorrect.
The Scarlet Knights are 2-2-1 ATS, but they’re 2-0-1 in their past three — including a 16.5-point cover as 2.5-point underdogs against Maryland last time out.
“Rutgers is legit. I mean, they are really good.”
Sounds familiar @JayBilas @notthefakeSVP @DickieV 🗣🔥 pic.twitter.com/bIo8wiBV3v
— Rutgers Men’s Basketball 🏀 (@RutgersMBB) December 18, 2020
So, these teams are 6-5-1 combined ATS. That might not be all that helpful. But they have seen the over hit in nine of 12 combined games (with two unders and one push). That’s something to pay attention to.
Head-to-Head Matchup
Rutgers has won three consecutive matchups ATS against Illinois, which covers all their matchups over the past two seasons. Last season, the Scarlet Knights covered as a five-point underdog in January and a 4.5-point favorite in February.
Looking strictly at that February game, a 72-57 win for Rutgers, it’s worth noting that both teams have four of their top five scorers returning. Ron Harper Jr., who had a game-high 27 points in that game (including 5-of-5 shooting from 3-pt. range) is among those who are back to lead the charge for Rutgers this season.
What we have here are two strong teams with solid early resumes, several key returnees and plenty of scoring potential. We like Rutgers to cover, and the over to hit as well.
Pick: Rutgers -1.0 (-110); Over 144.0 (-105)
Jordan Horrobin is a sports journalist whose MLB, NHL, NFL and NCAA work has appeared in outlets such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press and more. He is currently based in Toronto, also working as a contributor for Forbes.com and a freelance editor for Sportsnet.
