Illinois State vs Northern Iowa Predictions, Odds & Spread (Mar. 2)
- Illinois State and Northern Iowa start off the MVC tournament on Thursday, March 2nd
- The Panthers finished 8th in the conference, setting up a matchup with the 9th-seeded Redbirds
- Find the Illinois State vs Northern Iowa odds below, plus our best bet and prediction
Two teams separated by just three conference wins set off the Missouri Valley Conference tournament on Thursday, March 2nd when the Illinois State Redbirds (11-20, 11-18-1 ATS) take on the Northern Iowa Panthers (13-17, 13-16 ATS).
Four games will take place in the first round on Thursday, beginning with the Redbirds and Panthers at 1:00 pm ET from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri. Both teams enter the tourney on a downslide, with Illinois State winning one of their last seven, while Northern Iowa has just one victory in their last nine contests.
The winner of this game gets rewarded with a date with the conference’s top squad, the Bradley Braves on Friday. Below, you can find the Illinois State vs Northern Iowa odds, while we also offer up our best bet and pick for this matchup.
Illinois State vs Northern Iowa Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State Redbirds | +3.5 (-110) | +138 | O 137.5 (-115) |
| Northern Iowa Panthers | -3.5 (-110) | -166 | U 137.5 (-105) |
With just one win in the entire month of February, it might be a bit surprising to see that Northern Iowa is a 3.5-point favorite for this knockout game.
Paying out at -166 on the moneyline, the Panthers have an implied win probability of 62.41%, while the underdogs from Illinois State have a probability of 42.02% to advance to the quarterfinals.
Odds as of March 1st from FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.
Illinois State Redbirds Careless on Offense
One of the biggest issues plaguing the Redbirds this season has been their carelessness with the ball. They committed an average of 14.5 turnovers per game this season which ranked them amongst the worst 10% of teams in the nation.
In their two contests against Northern Iowa this season, the Redbirds turned the ball over a combined 33 times. A little bit more caution with the ball likely would’ve led to a victory as the defeats came by a combined eight total points.
Illinois State vs Northern Iowa Recent Results
| Date | Home-Away | Spread | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/18/2023 | UNI 65 – ILST 63 | ILST | Under |
| 12/31/2022 | ILST 60 – UNI 66 | UNI | Under |
| 03/04/2022 | UNI 78 – ILST 65 | UNI | Under |
| 02/15/2022 | ILST 70 – UNI 72 | ILST | Under |
| 01/29/2022 | UNI 79 – ILST 64 | UNI | Under |
What that sloppiness with the ball leads to is points for the opposition. It might be surprising, considering they have an adjusted offensive efficiency that ranks a lowly 257th in the nation according to KenPom, but the Redbirds have been a terrific bet on the over this season.
Illinois State has five turnovers in first 8 minutes.
— Les Winkeler (@LesWinkeler) January 7, 2023
Their indifference with the basketball leads to some easy buckets for their foes and they’ve hit the over in 63.3% of their games so far this year. During day games, they have exceeded the total nine times in 11 games, an 81.8% success rate on over bets. Reminder, tipoff for this contest is 1:00 pm ET, wink wink.
Northern Iowa Panthers Confidence at Season Low
This can’t be how the Panthers envisioned entering the MVC tournament. After a win over Valparaiso on January 25th, the Panthers had an overall record of 12-9, but have lost eight of nine games since then. Included in that wretched run was a 71-59 defeat to Evansville, the only MVC team to lose to the Purple Aces this year.
Nobody was expecting this team to be a contender in the odds to win March Madness, but February was a particularly miserable month for the Panthers.
2️⃣ 4️⃣ hours till we tip off Arch Madness! Panthers and Redbirds have played it close this season.#EverLoyal #ArchMadness #TheValleyRunsDeep pic.twitter.com/h56JVAs5rE
— UNI Basketball (@UNImbb) March 1, 2023
One of the bright spots this season has been sophomore Bowen Born. The undersized guard finished fourth in the entire conference with 17.2 points per game. Nevertheless, like his team, Born also faltered down the stretch with just a single 20-point effort to show for his last seven regular season outings.
Illinois State vs Northern Iowa Pick and Prediction
Will the Panthers continue their mastery over the Redbirds? Each of the last nine head-to-head meetings has been taken by Northern Iowa although most of those affairs have been tightly contested. The Panthers are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games overall and have really fallen apart in the last month.
Handicapped as 3.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds, a loss to Illinois State actually wouldn’t be considered much of an upset.
In December, the Panthers beat the Redbirds by six points, and in their next matchup, they beat them by a single basket. This time around, our prediction is that Illinois State turns the tables and kicks off the Missouri Valley Conference tourney with an upset victory.
Pick: Illinois State Redbirds Moneyline (+138)
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George has had a lifelong love affair with sports and studying sports statistics since he was a kid. He graduated from Ryerson University with a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism and has worked in the sports & media industry ever since in various roles from writer to producer.
