Iowa State vs Houston Predictions, Odds & Player Props (Feb 19)

• The #10 Iowa State Cyclones and #3 Houston Cougars square off with top spot in the Big 12 on the line on Monday night
•  Iowa State beat Houston at home in early January, but the Cougars are big favorites to even the season series in the rematch
• See the Iowa State vs Houston odds, predictions, and player props for Feb. 19 at the Fertitta Center

A massive game in the battle for the Big 12 regular-season title takes place on Monday night as the #10 Iowa State Cyclones (20-5, 4-3 away, 18-7 ATS) visit the #3 Houston Cougars (22-3, 14-0 home, 12-12-1 ATS).

Iowa State and Houston are currently tied atop the Big 12 standings at 9-3, one game up on 8-4 Baylor.  With just six games remaining (three home and three away for each), the winner of Monday’s contest will take a huge step towards earning at least a share of the regular-season conference championship.

Oddsmakers give Houston a big edge at home, setting the Cougars are 9.5-point home favorites.

Iowa State vs Houston Odds

Monday’s college basketball odds also list Houston as -480 on the moneyline, giving the Cougars an 82.76% implied win probability. Iowa State comes back at +360 while the game total is at a relatively low 127.5.

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Iowa State One of the Best ATS Teams This Season

Not only is Iowa State a sublime 20-5 straight-up on the season, the Cyclones are also 18-7 against the spread. Only five of the 362 DI teams in the country have covered at a better rate. Almost all of Iowa State’s losses have been close. The Cyclones have only lost one game by double-digits all season (75-62 at BYU).

Iowa State enters Monday on a four-game win streak, including away wins over Texas (70-65) and Cincinnati (68-59) and home wins against TCU (71-59) and Texas Tech (82-74). TJ Otzelberger’s team covered all four games against the spread, which is all the more impressive when you consider that all four teams are rated 36th or better at KenPom.

Iowa State has balanced offense with four players averaging between 10.1 and 14.2 PPG, led by guards Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey. The real strength of the team is on the defensive end, where they rate third in the country in defensive efficiency and generate turnovers at the highest rate in the DI (26.1% of opponent possessions).

Turnovers were the difference in Iowa State’s 57-53 win over Houston last month. The Cyclones generated 16 Cougar turnovers and turned them into 17 points. Houston scored just six points off 12 Iowa State turnovers and wound up on the losing end despite a 32-25 rebounding edge.

Houston Still Perfect at Home

Houston is a perfect 14-0 at home straight-up this season, along with an excellent 9-4 record against the spread at home. No team has stayed within 15 points of the Cougars at the Fertitta Center all season. That said, the Cougars were pushed to the limit when they faced Texas A&M at the Toyota Center in Houston on Dec. 16, escaping with a 70-66 despite taking a 15-point lead into halftime.

Last time out, Houston crushed Texas 82-61 at home, getting a game-high 26 points from leading scorer LJ Cryer along with a phenomenal 16-point, 11-rebound, six-assist performance from senior guard Jamal Shead. As they often do, the Cougars won the battle on the board decisively, out-rebounding the Longhorns 45-34.

Houston is a rare combination of an excellent offensive-rebounding team (fourth in the nation at 39.2%) while still dominating defensively. The Cougars have the very best defensive efficiency rating in the country, and it’s not close. Their 86.2 rating is 4.6 better than any other team. It also would have been the top mark in the country in two of the past three seasons.

Iowa State vs Houston Player Props

College basketball player props from DraftKings.

The player props for Iowa State vs Houston are all quite modest, which makes sense is a battle between two of the best defensive teams in the nation. Shead (14.5) has the highest point total, followed by teammate Cryer (13.5). Now Iowa State player has an over/under higher than 11.5.

Iowa State vs Houston Prediction

The first meeting between these teams was a defensive slugfest in Ames. Neither team managed to shoot better than 38.3% from the floor and neither cracked 60 points. It’s tempting to take the Cyclones and the boatload of points they’re getting, but Houston’s track record of dominance at home is too much to bet into.

Instead, I am going to bet the first-half under, which has been set at 60.5 points at FanDuel. January’s game at Hilton Coliseum witnessed just 52 first-half points, and I expect the another slow-paced, defensively-intense first 20 minutes on Monday night.

ISU vs HOU pick: first-half under 60.5 points (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

• ATS: 13-13 (-1.21 units)
• Moneyline: 1-5 (-4.78 units)
• Player props: 2-2 (+0.78 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.