March Madness Final Four Betting Trends – Breakdown of Public Money and Bets Placed
- Houston takes on Baylor and UCLA faces Gonzaga in the two Final Four games on Saturday, April 3
- The public is now 9-3 against the spread since the Sweet 16 started
- Get the breakdown of money (handle) and bets to see who the public is backing in the Final Four
The Elite Eight wrapped up late Tuesday night, with Gonzaga and UCLA joining Baylor and Houston in the Final Four. Betting Lines for the Final Four opened that night, and bettors have now had nearly three full days to bet on these lines.
While most like to know which way the public is betting so they can fade them, it hasn’t been a profitable bet lately. The betting public has been red hot since the Sweet 16 began, going 9-3 against the spread, including 6-2 in the Sweet 16 and 3-1 in the Elite Eight.
Will the public stay hot? Who are they backing in the Final Four? We’ve got all the betting splits for the semifinals below. Check out the split of money (betting handle) and bets for both games, Houston vs Baylor and UCLA vs Gonzaga, on Saturday (April 3).
Final Four Betting Trends
| Team | Spread | ATS Money % | ATS Bet % | Total | O/U Money % | O/U Bet % | Moneyline | ML Money % | ML Bet % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | +5 | 13% | 22% | 134.5 | Ov 60% | Ov 68% | +175 | 26% | 37% |
| Baylor | -5 | 87% | 78% | 134.5 | Un 40% | Un 32% | -220 | 74% | 63% |
| Team | Spread | ATS Money % | ATS Bet % | Total | O/U Money % | O/U Bet % | Moneyline | ML Money % | ML Bet % |
| UCLA | +14 | 19% | 30% | 145.5 | Ov 50% | Ov 54% | +650 | 59% | 49% |
| Gonzaga | -14 | 81% | 70% | 145.5 | Un 50% | Un 46% | -1250 | 41% | 51% |
All figures updated April 2, per DraftKings
Public Backing Favorites in Final Four
UCLA has put together an unbelievable run in the 2021 March Madness Tournament. The 11-seeded Bruins are just the second team ever to play in the First Four and make it to the Final Four. UCLA defeated Michigan State in the play-in game, then took down #6 BYU, #14 Abilene Christian, #2 Alabama, and #1 Michigan in the Elite Eight.
However, the public believes the clock has struck midnight on this Cinderella story. Despite getting a whopping 14 points in their Final Four matchup with Gonzaga, 81% of the public money bet against the spread is on the Bulldogs.
The Bruins are 5-0 against the spread so far this tournament, and have been underdogs in four of those games. Gonzaga also has a perfect record against the spread this tournament, going 4-0. They’ve covered as 33, 15.5, 12.5, and 9-point favorites thus far.
The public is even more confident in the other favorite on Saturday, though. Baylor, listed as 5-point favorites against Houston, is seeing 87% of the ATS money in this matchup.
The Bears are 3-1 ATS in the tournament, covering each of their last three. Baylor has been 6.5, 7.5, and 7.5-point favorites in those games, failing to cover as 25.5-point favorites against Hartford in the first round.
Houston has also been favored in all four games they’ve played in the tournament, but are only 2-2 against the spread. The Cougars covered as 20.5-point favorites against Cleveland State in the first round, and as 6.5-point favorites against Syracuse in the Sweet 16. They failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites against Rutgers and 8-point favorites against Oregon State.
Are you fading or tailing the public?
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After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
