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Michigan State vs Michigan Odds and Picks

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Mar 3, 2021 · 6:36 PM PST

Aaron Henry celebrates with teammate
Michigan State forward Aaron Henry (0) celebrates with forward Gabe Brown (44) after scoring against Ohio State during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Thursday, Feb. 25, 2021, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
  • Michigan State (14-10, 8-10 Big Ten) battles #2 Michigan (18-2, 13-2 Big Ten) on Thursday, March 4, at 7:00 pm ET
  • Michigan is coming off an ugly loss — its first at home — while the Spartans have been surging of late
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

Entering this week, #2 Michigan was in cruise control. The Wolverines had a perfect home record, a near-perfect overall record, and a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament practically chiseled into stone.

Tuesday’s jaw-dropping beating against #4 Illinois changed things a little bit. There’s now reason to question what will happen next for the Wolverines, who host a pretty hot Michigan State team on Thursday (7:00 pm ET tip off) as 12-point favorites.

Michigan State vs #2 Michigan Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Michigan State +12 (-106) +610 Over 140.5 (-106)
Michigan -12 (-116) -900 Under 140.5 (-116)

Odds as of March 3rd at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

Michigan has been excellent pretty much the entire season, but what’s notable is how they fared in a 76-53 loss to the Fighting Illini on Tuesday. The Wolverines simply had no answer for Illinois’s swarming defense, shooting just 34.7 from the floor (their effective field goal rate this season, 55.6, ranks 18th in NCAA Division I).

Oh, and the Wolverines were out-rebounded by 16. Not what you want to see if you support the maize and blue. But we’ve seen enough strong performances from Michigan this season — including wins over #5 Iowa and #7 Ohio State in the past 10 days — to know they’re capable of much more.

After Michigan’s only other loss this season — a 75-57 loss to Minnesota on Jan. 16 — the Wolverines clawed back with an 87-63 victory three days later against Maryland.

Michigan State happen to have a recent loss to those same Terrapins, but that came between wins against Indiana and Ohio State — plus a win against Illinois right before that. They own the second highest assist rate in D-I (66.3%), but their offense lacks shooting prowess (246th in effective field goal percentage, 48.4%).

The Spartans are at risk of having their worst win percentage in the past 25 years (currently sitting at .583), but they’ve won four of five since Feb. 20. Something about Tom Izzo and March …

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ATS Analysis

The Wolverines are still a very impressive 15-5 against the spread this season, with a 9-4 mark at home. They’ve covered in six of their past eight games, with five of those wins coming by an ATS margin of nine or more points. The under has hit in eight of their past 10.

The Spartans are just 8-16 ATS this season, which includes a 3-7 ATS road record. They’ve covered in four of their past five overall, and they went 2-2 ATS on the road in February. The under has hit in six of their past nine games.

Head-to-Head Matchup

The Spartans and Wolverines last met in the 2019-20 season, when their situations were quite different. Michigan State was favored in both matchups, but the teams split the straight up and ATS results.

YouTube video

Those games — which featured a pair of key seniors on both sides — matter less than what’s going on in the here and now. Michigan looked awful on Tuesday, but they’re primed for a bounce back. And though Michigan State has trended upward, their long-term ATS trends are still a great concern.

Pick: Michigan -12 (-116); Under 140.5 (-116)

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