North Carolina vs Kentucky Odds and Picks

• The No. 22 North Carolina Tar Heels (4-2) take on the Kentucky Wildcats (1-4) at the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland Saturday, Dec. 19 at 2:00 p.m. ET
• The Tar Heels rebounded from a loss to Iowa with a victory over NC Central, while Coach Cal’s ‘Cats are in the midst of their first four-game losing skid in nearly three years
• Read below for odds, analysis, and our best bet for this matchup

A tilt between a pair of college basketball’s preeminent blue bloods gets underway in the CBS Sports Classic this weekend when the No. 22 North Carolina Tar Heels face the unranked Kentucky Wildcats. The game is set to tip off Saturday, Dec. 19 at 2:00 p.m. ET from the Rockets Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland.

The 5-6 combined mark of the Heels and ‘Cats certainly isn’t what you would expect through the teams’ respective early slate. But both Carolina and Kentucky feature relatively inexperienced squads, with UK especially struggling to jell. Head coach John Calipari’s team has lost two in a row at Rupp Arena for the first time in his 11-year-plus tenure and four in a row overall for the first time since 2018.

Meantime, the Tar Heels’ top three scorers through six games are senior Garrison Brooks (11.8 points per game), freshman RJ Davis (11.2 points per game) and fellow freshman Caleb Love (also 11.2 points per game). The last time a Tar Heel led the team in scoring with less than 12 points a game was the 1946-47 season, when Jim Hamilton averaged 11.4 points.

So while this isn’t necessarily the marquee matchup you typically get between these two programs, it’s easy to see why the spread is so close.

#22 North Carolina vs Kentucky Odds

Odds taken Dec. 18 at FanDuel

Not What They Used To Be

UNC is clearly the better off of these two programs at the moment. But that’s not saying much.

Armando Bacot had 19 points — which was the most by a Tar Heel in any of the first six games so far this season — and 11 rebounds to lead North Carolina over NC Central in the team’s last game Saturday . He scored 15 of UNC’s 30 points in the first half and helped the Tar Heels overcome an early 11-point deficit. The Eagles scored the game’s final nine points in the last 87 seconds to make the final outcome appear closer than it actually was. But, still, why were the Heels ever that class to a MEAC team at the Dean Dome?

For some perspective, this is the first time these two teams have played when one is unranked since UNC was out of the top-25 in 2010 and the first time neither is in the top-20 since 1989. Roy Williams’ club is currently rated No. 27 by KenPom, with Kentucky at No. 40. But even those ratings are still impacted by last season.

Feeling Blue

As bumpy as the start to the 2020-21 campaign has been for Carolina (nearly losing to Stanford in Asheville and dropping back-to-back games to Texas and Iowa), it’s been worse for Kentucky.

Rock bottom may have come in UK’s last game, when Notre Dame came into Lexington and beat the Wildcats for the Irish’s first-ever win at Rupp, beating the Wildcats 64-63.

UK Basketball has challenges, historically one of the worst season starts in its history, a 4th straight loss today hosting Notre Dame. @WLKY pic.twitter.com/BarJxCCVk2

— Fred Cowgill WLKY (@FredCowgillWLKY) December 12, 2020

The always-confident Calipari struck a familiar lament in defeat. “Losing games in a row here is like a natural disaster,” the Kentucky basketball coach said. “And you know what? I’m not buying it, I don’t listen to it, I never have. Whether we’re winning games or losing games, my focus is on how do I help these guys get better.” But the fact of the matter is Kentucky should never lose “games in a row” with the blue chip talent the program has year-to-year.

Now, Cal admitted Thursday Kentucky has been down a few players at practice this week. That’s an unsettling development for a team in desperate need of pulling out of its current slide.

History on UK’s Side

Carolina is 0-2 against Kentucky in the CBS Sports Classic. The Wildcats beat UNC, 103-100, in Las Vegas in December 2016 and 80-72 in Chicago two years ago..

Brooks is the only healthy Carolina player who scored in that 2018 game still active.

Meantime, Kentucky may have found its point guard while fighting back against Notre Dame. Coach Cal said Terrence Clarke may be the guy running the show postgame. On-court leadership is critical at this point for a Wildcat team searching for something.

Can Kentucky lose five in a row? Of course. But I’m fading the Tar Heels in the spot and betting UK doesn’t let that happen.

The pick: Kentucky +2.5 (-102)