Upcoming Match-ups

Opening Odds to Make 2021 Final Four Favor Gonzaga, Villanova, Virginia & Baylor

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in College Basketball

Updated Apr 17, 2020 · 3:37 PM PDT

The Kennel, a.k.a. the Gonzaga Bulldogs' home arena
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have the shortest odds on the board to make the 2021 Final Four. Photo by Rp0211 (Wikimedia).
  • Gonzaga has opened with the shortest odds to make the Final Four in 2021
  • Kentucky has the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation. The last time that happened, they made it to the Final Four
  • Could there be value with Wisconsin, which finished last season on an eight-game winning streak?

Although there is some trepidation as to when the 2020-21 college basketball season will start and how it will look when it does, the odds to make the Final Four have opened up. Let’s hope that, by the fall, we are getting back to normal with the coronavirus pandemic.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have the shortest odds on the board to make the 2021 Final Four but are they the right play? There could be some value on the board betting some of the longshots.

2020-21 Odds To Make Final Four

Team Odds
Gonzaga +120
Villanova +135
Baylor +150
Virginia +200
Creighton +250
Duke +250
Kentucky +250
Iowa +300
Kansas +300
Wisconsin +300
Florida State +350
Oregon +550
West Virginia +550
Texas Tech +600
UCLA +600
Houston +650
Michigan State +650
North Carolina +650
Ohio State +650
Tennessee +650
Arizona State +700
Florida +700
Michigan +700
San Diego State +700
Stanford +700
Indiana +750
LSU +750
Auburn +800
Louisville +800
Maryland +900

Odds as of Apr. 17th.

Gonzaga Is On The Short List

The Bulldogs have the shortest odds on the board and that’s not much of a surprise. When the 2019-20 season ended, they were the No. 2 team in the Associated Press Top 25, were 31-2, and were heading towards a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Taking a look ahead to next season, this team has some NBA Draft concerns. Highly-rated recruit Jalen Suggs could opt to go pro (overseas) and so could Filip Petrusev, who emerged as a key impact player. At the same time, both could return and they would join Corey Kispert, Anton Watson, Drew Timmi and Joel Ayayi.

At the end of the day, conference play will be a breeze for this team and they should notch 30 wins again. A top seed will help them last longer in the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky Offers Value

Taking a look at these odds, I’m cross-referencing my own power rankings versus where teams are in the odds. I have Kentucky as a top-three team but the odds have them tied for fifth here.

Sure, the team lost Tyrese Maxey to the NBA Draft but that was expected. What’s incoming is what you should notice. Kentucky coach John Calipari will be welcoming the top recruiting class in the nation. The last time he did that, the team didn’t lose a single game until the Final Four.

He has three guards ranked in the top 25 joining the program in Terrence Clark, Brandon Boston Jr, and Devin Askew. I like their chances here at +250. I also like their 2021 NCAA Tournament odds to win it all at +1400.

Wisconsin Badgers Have Momentum

One of the longer shots that I like is Wisconsin. Although at +300, it doesn’t feel like they’re a “longshot”, I see some value here as they’re tied for eighth in line in terms of the odds.

The Badgers finished the year red-hot, winning their final eight games to capture a share of the regular-season Big Ten title. They had just one senior – Brevin Pritzl, who only averaged 8.0 PPG – so they return much of their cast intact. Beyond that, they’ll add a couple of good recruits in Ben Carlson and Johnny Davis.

I was really impressed by how Greg Gard guided this team down the stretch of the season and, while the Big Ten is a gauntlet, this is one of the better teams in the stacked conference going into next season. At +300, I like them as a small flier to make the Final Four.


how has covid-19 impacted sports? text overlay desktop crossbar april 15

Author Image