Toledo vs Kent State Odds and Picks

• The overachieving Toledo Rockets (8-3, 3-0 MAC), currently riding a five-game win streak, face the Kent State Golden Flashes (3-2, 0-1 MAC) on the road Tuesday, Jan. 5 at 2:00 p.m. ET
• The Rockets got 20 points from Ryan Rollins in a 70-59 victory over Western Michigan Saturday, while the Flashes got 19 points from Mike Nuga in a 66-62 New Year’s Day loss to Akron
• Read below for odds, analysis, and our best bet for this matchup

The Toledo Rockets (8-3, 3-0 MAC), currently riding a five-game win streak, travel to Kent, OH to take on the Kent State Golden Flashes (3-2, 0-1 MAC) Tuesday, Jan. 5. Tip is set for 2:00 p.m. ET at the Memorial Athletic and Convocation Center.

Head coach Tod Kowalczyk’s Rockets are coming off a 70-59 victory Saturday against Western Michigan. Ryan Rollins tied his season-high with 20 points in the 11-point victory, while the team’s leading scorer, Marreon Jackson, chipped in 10.

Meanwhile, Rob Senderoff’s Golden Flashes have had three of their last four games postponed due to various COVID issues. Kent State was able to squeeze in a game at Akron on New Year’s Day. The Flashes fell 66-62 to the Zips despite Mike Nuga’s 19-point, 8-rebound effort. Now, Toledo is a slight favorite on the road against Kent State.

Toledo vs Kent State Odds

Odds taken Jan. 4 at FanDuel

Rocketing Up the Ratings

Not only is Toledo the class of the MAC by far according to KenPom (the Rockets are currently rated No. 87 while the next closest conference foe, Buffalo, is No. 111), Kowalczyk’s club has steadily improved throughout the young season. The Rockets entered the campaign rated No. 128 and have jumped 41 spots in just over a month. A big reason why has been balance among the team’s top four scorers — Jackson, Rollins, Setrick Millner and Spencer Littleson — who are all averaging double-digits. Each has led the team in scoring at least once in the 11 games so far.

https://twitter.com/ToledoMBB/status/1345472971117219840

This team is exceeding expectations, too. Toledo was picked to finish sixth in the conference preseason coaches poll, but currently sits atop the West division standings at 3-0. I don’t see any reason to fade Toledo in this spot.

Flashes of Brilliance

Kent State nearly picked off the last team to win the NCAA Tournament, Virginia, on Dec. 6. The Golden Flashes lost to the Cavaliers in overtime 71-64.

Kent State missed three 3-point attempts and kept rebounding the ball in the closing moments, until Danny Pippen swished a 3 at the buzzer to forcing overtime at the end of regulation. UVa took control in the extra period and eventually won — but the game was an early glimpse of what the Flashes are capable of.

It’s been a frustrating month since that defeat in Charlottesville, though. A pair of wins over Detroit Mercy and Northern Kentucky followed. But then Senderoff’s squad had three of its next four contests postponed due to coronavirus issues. The first two — games against Akron and Bowling Green — were called off after a positive test within the Kent State program. The third — against Easter Michigan — involved a case in EMU’s program.

These setbacks are especially tough for a relatively inexperienced team like Kent State. Forward Tervell Beck, who returned to the team for the first time last week after suffering an injury in mid-November, is one of only three returnees who averaged over 12 minutes per game last season. The other two are sophomore point guard Giovanni Santiago and senior forward Pippen.

While not as impressive as Toledo’s climb, Kent State has also moved up in KenPom’s ratings. The Flahses started at No. 174 and are now at No. 148.

Time is Everything

If this game were in a couple weeks — after Kent State had a few more games under its belt — I might have a different opinion. But due to Toledo’s ability to play a full slate so far, while Kent State has been forced to miss three games already — just when it was building up some momentum — I really like the Rockets in this spot.

The matchup between the Rockets and Golden Flashes pits the MAC’s top two defensive squads against each other. Kent State ranks first in scoring defense at 63.4 ppg, while Toledo is second at 66.5 ppg, so under the total is certainly a solid bet here.

But from a value perspective, when you factor in Toledo’s balanced attack among its quartet of double-digit scorers, it makes this early-season MACtion contest an easy one to pick.

The pick: Toledo -1.5 (+102)