Virginia vs Memphis Odds, Player Props & Picks (Dec. 19)

• The #22 Virginia Cavaliers visit the #23 Memphis Tigers on Tuesday
• Memphis is 3-0 at home while UVA is playing its first true road game of the season
• See the Virginia vs Memphis odds, player props, and picks for Dec. 19

A fascinating top-25 matchup is on Tuesday’s college basketball schedule as the #22 Virginia Cavaliers (9-1, 0-0 away, 6-4 ATS) visit the #23 Memphis Tigers (8-2, 3-0 home, 5-5 ATS) at FedExForum nat 6:00 pm CT/7:00 pm ET.

In what should be a stark contrast in styles – UVA plays at the second-slowest tempo in the country while Memphis is 19th-fastest – the hometown Tigers are listed as 3.5-point favorites.

Virginia vs Memphis Odds

Memphis is also a -165 moneyline favorites in Tuesday’s college basketball odds while the Wahoos come back at +140. The total is just 131.5, which is 12 points lower than the game total in any other Memphis game this season. Conversely, this is just the third time in 11 UVA games that the total has exceeded 129.  Memphis is currently 7-3 over/under this year. UVA is 3-7.

Tuesday’s broadcast will be carried by ESPN 2.

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Odds as of Dec. 19 at ESPN Bet. Get an ESPN Bet promo code to bet on UVA vs Memphis.

The college basketball public betting splits for this game see the Tigers getting 58% of ATS handle as 3.5-point chalk, but a massive 96% of moneyline handle as -165 favorites.

Memphis Hands Clemson First Loss

Penny Hardaway has stacked Memphis’ non-conference schedule with challenging Power 6 games.  Seven of the Tigers’ first ten games have come against P6 opponents who are all rated 90th or better at KenPom, and they are a solid 5-2 in those contests.

Memphis owns wins over no. 85 Missouri (70-55 away), no. 45 Michigan (71-67 neutral), no. 54 Arkansas (84-79 neutral), no. 22 Texas A&M (81-75 home), and no. 25 Clemson (79-77 home), while falling to no. 28 Villanova (79-63 neutral) and no. 90 Ole Miss (80-77 away).

The strong start is all the more impressive when you remember that basically every significant contributor on Hardaway’s team is a transfer. Not one of Memphis’ top-five scorers from last year returned, and not one of their top-six scorers this year was on the team last season.

This iteration of the Tigers is led by former St John’s forward David Jones (20.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and former Alabama guard Jahvon Quinerly (13.7 PPG 4.9 APG), who are the only players averaging in double-figures.

As a team, there isn’t any one thing they do spectacularly. Their biggest deficiency to date has been cleaning up their own glass, currently sitting 316th in rebound percentage at the defensive end. Luckily for Memphis, UVA basically makes zero effort on the offensive glass (305th) and is much more concerned with getting back into its suffocating pack-line defense.

Virginia Brings Five-Game Win Streak to Memphis

Also dealing with a ton of roster turnover, Virginia coach Tony Bennett has seen a couple returnees take big strides. Leading scorer Reece Beekman has upped his average from 9.5 PPG as a junior to 12.5 as a senior while dishing out 5.7 assists per game running the UVA offense. Sharpshooting sophomore Isaac McKneely has improved from 6.7 PPG as a freshman to 12.3 PPG this year while hitting at a devastating 55.1% from beyond the arc on 5.4 attempts per game.

Virginia’s schedule hasn’t been nearly as aggressive in the early going. The Cavaliers have only faced four top-100 KenPom teams, going 3-1 in the process with wins over no. 38 Florida (73-70), no. 22 Texas A&M (59-47 home), and no. 81 Syracuse (84-62 home) and an ugly 65-41 neutral-court loss to Wisconsin in Fort Myers, FL.

As usual, Bennett’s team is playing at a slothlike pace. (Since he took over in 2010, UVA has been 316th or slower – usually much slower – in the nation in tempo.) Their pack-line defense leads to opponents having the single-longest average length of possession in the country (19.8 second) while they’re in no hurry at the offensive end either (18.6 seconds, 304th).

After some (relatively) down seasons the last three years, when UVA finished no better than 36th in defensive efficiency, the pack-line is back to its suffocating form this year. Virginia is currently second in the country in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 26.1% from three (seventh-best) and 42.1% from inside the arc (ninth-best).

Virginia vs Memphis Player Props

Jones has the highest over/under point total by a big margin, sitting at 18.5, six points higher than UVA’s Beekman at 12.5; though that is still two points lower than his season average, a sensible drop given the defense he’ll be facing.

Virginia vs Memphis Prediction

Memphis’ recent wins over Texas A&M (Dec. 10) and Clemson (Dec. 16) were both impressive, but the Tigers haven’t been winning by big margins, evidenced by their 5-5 ATS record. They don’t shoot well from three (33.5%, 173rd) and will find it immensely difficult getting quality looks from inside the arc against Bennett’s pack-line.

Home-court notwithstanding, expect the Tigers shooting to suffer and UVA to cover a not-insignificant spread.

UVA vs MEM picks:

• Virginia +3.5 (-110)
• David Jones under 18.5 points (-130)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

• ATS: 13-9 (+2.79 units)
• Moneyline: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
• Player props: 1-1 (-0.13 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.