Wisconsin vs Michigan Odds, Lines & Predictions (Feb. 26)

• The Michigan Wolverines are 4.5-point home favorites vs the Wisconsin Badgers in Sunday Big Ten action
• Wisconsin just beat Michigan on Valentine’s Day
• See below for the latest Wisconsin vs Michigan odds, plus analysis and best bets

Two teams fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives clash for a crucial one, when the Wisconsin Badgers (16-11, 8-9 Big Ten) square off with the Michigan Wolverines (16-12, 10-7 Big Ten).

Wisconsin owns a win over the Wolverines already this season, but they are in a distant 10th-place tie in the Big Ten. Currently in a logjam in third in the conference, Michigan is hoping to secure a top-4 spot, which would guarantee a double-bye in the upcoming Big Ten Tournament.

It all gets underway Sunday (Feb 26) at 2pm ET from the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, MI. You can watch the game live on CBS.

Wisconsin vs Michigan Odds

The college basketball odds have the home-side Wolverines as 4.5-point favorites, with a total set at 129.

Wisconsin went on a stretch of six losses in seven games, before alternating wins and losses in each of their last seven, the latest a much-needed win over the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Michigan has been trending upwards of late, having won two straight and five of their last seven. One of those two losses was to the Badgers, a 64-59 decision on Valentine’s Day.

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Odds as of February 25th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Wisconsin vs Michigan Betting Analysis

It’s been a slog of an offensive struggle for the Badgers this season. who rank 327th in the NCAA at 64.6 points per game. They’re a middle-of-the-pack unit in KenPom’s adjusted offensive metric, at 160th.

They were right on the number against Iowa in their 64-52 win. Connor Essegian led the way with 17 points and five boards, while Tyler Wahl added 11 points and 14 rebounds.

The Connor Essegian Game ✍️

Watch the highlights ⤵️.@CEssegian x @BadgerMBB pic.twitter.com/VMqF0g2jOj

— Wisconsin On BTN (@WisconsinOnBTN) February 15, 2023

Chucky Hepburn was the only other Badger to hit double digits, finishing with 12 points, four rebounds and five assists. A team that usually hits above average from three-point range (35.5%, 110th in NCAA), Wisconsin was a dismal 4-for-18 from distance, a 22.2% clip.

Fortunately, their defense came to play. Wisconsin ranks 25th in points against, surrendering only 62.8 points per contest, and they’re even stingier in KenPom’s adjusted defense, ranking 18th. It’s the third-straight game they’ve held their opponent under 60 points.

The Wolverines’ defense showed out last time out, downing the Scarlet Knights 58-45, the lowest scoring output allowed all season.

Dug McDaniel from DEEP 3️⃣@AyooFlyy x @umichbball pic.twitter.com/zssMOwxuGl

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 24, 2023

Offensively, Dug McDaniel was the high man, scoring 16 points, to go along with four boards, two assists, and five steals. Big man Hunter Dickinson had 13 points and 11 boards, while Kobe Bufkin chipped in with 14 points, three assists and three steals.

The Wolverines are average defensively, allowing 68.4 points per game, which ranks 131st in the nation. However, their opponents’ effective field goal percentage (48%) is an impressive 66th, and they’re 54th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive metric.

Averaging 72.9 points per game (150th), and ranking 46th in adjusted offensive via KenPom, Michigan’s scoring has dried up as of late, failing to crack 62 points in three of their last four games

Wisconsin vs Michigan Prediction

Michigan had no answer for Essegian in their last meeting, as he led all scorers with 23 points and three rebounds. Bufkin led UM with 21 points.

Wisconsin did a number on the Wolverines defensively as well, limiting them to 42.1% shooting from the field, and a bleak 5-for-16 from three, a 31.3% clip.

The Badgers weren’t exactly lighting it up. In fact, they shot a dismal 33.3% from the field, and 33.3% from three, on 6-for-18. They made up the difference by grabbing 15 offensive rebounds (+7), going +8 in free-throw scoring and forcing 12 Wolverines turnovers while committing just five.

Wisconsin vs Michigan Head-to-Head

Michigan does play better at home than on the road, where they own an 11-4 mark, and are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine at Crisler.

Wisconsin’s inconsistency is a trend you may have been able to cash in on. In their last eight games following a win, they’re 0-7-1 ATS. However, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four against teams with a winning record.

This spread is just high enough to want to look at the total, where the Badgers have hit the under in six of their last eight, while UM’s under bet has gone 8-2-1 in the last 11.

Michigan isn’t a great tempo team, just 158th in KenPom, and Wisconsin is way down the board at 352. Look for these teams to dig in, with points at a premium.

Pick: UNDER 129 (-110)