Yale vs Saint Mary’s Odds and Picks (Dec. 28)

• Saint Mary’s is a 12.5-point favorite over Yale on Tuesday (Dec. 28th) at 10 pm ET at the University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, CA
• The Gaels are a perfect 8-0 at home this season
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Tuesday marks the final time in 2021 that both Yale and Saint Mary’s will take to the hardwood. It will also be the final non-conference game for both programs, as each is set to open up conference play this weekend.

The Bulldogs enter the contest fresh off back-to-back losses, while the Gales have won three of four coming in. Tip-off is set for 10 pm ET at the University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, CA.

Yale vs Saint Mary’s Odds

Odds as of Dec. 28th at FanDuel.

Saint Mary’s opened up as a 12.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 129. The Gaels are undefeated at home this season, posting an 8-0 record, and most recently took down Missouri State in their own building 75-58.

Saint Mary’s Gaels Betting Analysis

Saint Mary’s actually trailed the Bears by three at the break, but outscored them 42-22 in the second half to cruise to victory. Matthias Tass continued his scorching hot play, pouring in a career-high 27 points, including 17 in the final 20 minutes.

The Gaels big man Matthias Tass earns a new career high of 27 points from this Dunk! What a strong all around performance for the Gaels against a very strong Missouri State team. #GaelsRise pic.twitter.com/PkgRUqXeBU

— Saint Mary's Hoops (@saintmaryshoops) December 23, 2021

The senior from Estonia made 12 of his 15 attempts, and is now averaging 15.9 points per game over his last seven outings, while shooting a blistering 67.1% from the field.

Tommy Kuhse splashed 16 points and grabbed 7 boards for the Gaels, while Logan Johnson added 13. Saint Mary’s shot a season-best 53.6% from the field, and buried 40% of their long range looks.

Tommy Kuhse is bringing the heat in the second half! The Gaels are up by 11!#GaelsRise pic.twitter.com/LYDGZ0AKaa

— Saint Mary's Hoops (@saintmaryshoops) December 23, 2021

They dominated on the glass and in the assist department, finishing +12 and +10 respectively in those two categories, and also forced 12 Missouri State turnovers.

The phenomenal offensive performance is not something Gaels fans are used to, as Saint Mary’s is typically known for its play at the defensive end. The Gaels rank 21st in the country in scoring defense, and allow the fewest opponent assists in the nation. Saint Mary’s also does an excellent job on the glass in its own end, ranking seventh in defensive rebounding percentage, allowing few opportunities for second chance points.

Offensively, their 66.8 points per game average ranks 239th, while they also rank outside the top-145 in three-point efficiency.

Yale Bulldogs Betting Analysis

Yale meanwhile, hasn’t suited up since December 14th after their last scheduled game versus Howard was cancelled. The Bisons had three players test positive for COVID and the teams decided not to reschedule the contest.

California Love 🐶☀️#ThisIsYale pic.twitter.com/xoZyEJZYpn

— Yale Men's Basketball (@YaleMBasketball) December 28, 2021

Offensively, they’re slightly more potent than the Gaels, but their defense is quite far behind. Yale is surrendering 72.1 points per contest, while yielding a 49.1% effective shooting percentage. They’ve also struggled at defending the three-point line, ranking 178th in the country.

The Bulldogs enter with a 6-7 record, with all seven losses coming against teams who are at least two games above .500. They’ve struggled especially versus top-100 ranked teams which doesn’t bode well given Saint Mary’s 37th overall ranking in KenPom’s efficiency metrics.

Yale vs Saint Mary’s Pick

Yale is 0-4 versus programs ranked inside the top-100, posting an average score margin of -20. Just one of the four outings has been decided by less than 14 points, while the Bulldogs are also winless against the spread on the road.

The Gales on the other hand, have been beating up on mediocre competition like Yale all season long. They’re 7-2 against the spread versus teams ranked outside the top-50, including 7-1 at home.

Lay the 12.5 points with Saint Mary’s.

Pick: Saint Mary’s Gaels -12.5 (-110)