Week 12 College Football Upset Picks

• A loaded slate of Week 12 college football games on Saturday, Nov. 21st leaves plenty of opportunity for upsets
• The health status of Chuba Hubbard appears to be affecting the line of the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State rivalry game
• Find the odds and three upset picks for Saturday in the article below

The best rivalries are ones that neither side dominates. That hasn’t been the case recent for the “Bedlam” quarrel between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, won five times running by the Sooners.

But this year, the underdog Cowboys are ranked higher and make a good case to pull an “upset” (at least, it’d be an upset by sportsbooks’ standards). Check out that matchup and another pair of upsets below.

No. 14 Oklahoma State vs No. 18 Oklahoma Odds

All odds taken Nov. 18th at FanDuel

Breaking the Bedlam Streak

If you look at the rankings of these two teams, you’re probably wondering why Oklahoma State is an underdog by more than a touchdown. It’s a bit of a mystery, but hey, it makes for a juicy upset pick.

Yes, history is on the Sooners’ side here, as Oklahoma has won five straight “Bedlam” rivalry games against the folks from Stillwater. This year, the teams appear to be pretty evenly matched in a game that typically sees offense rule the day.

What makes Oklahoma State enticing? Their defense has held up well (15th in scoring, 16th in yards allowed in NCAA) and they have arguably the best running back in the country: Chuba Hubbard.

WHAT A RUN BY CHUBA HUBBARD!! #okstate pic.twitter.com/D6G6WcszpE

— Tyler Wiederhoeft (@TDWiederhoeft) October 24, 2020

Right now, Hubbard is questionable with a leg injury. He only took six carries in last week’s narrow win over Kansas State. That might explain why the line favors Oklahoma.

But we don’t expect Hubbard to miss the final Bedlam game of his career, and neither does Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy:

Mike Gundy on the injuries to Chuba Hubbard and L.D. Brown and their availability in Bedlam:

"We're hoping to get those guys out here in the latter part of the week." pic.twitter.com/r2nMRnIyHM

— Bryan Keating (@KOCOKeating) November 17, 2020

Also, no need to worry about Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler, who left the Sooners’ last game early with a hip injury. Rattler and the Sooners had last weekend off, and coach Lincoln Riley says he’ll be ready for Saturday.

Pick: Oklahoma State moneyline (+210)

Missouri vs South Carolina Odds

Home Sweet Home

Finally, South Carolina gets a home matchup with an unranked team. Playing in the SEC often means tiptoeing a landmine of ranked opponents, which is what the Gamecocks have had to do inside Williams-Brice Stadium so far this year.

They are 1-2 at home, pulling an upset on then-No. 15 Auburn, but losing tight to No. 16 Tennessee and big to No. 7 Texas A&M. This time around, South Carolina greets unranked Missouri.

The Tigers are favored by nearly a touchdown, but don’t let that deter you: their only wins came against a criminally overrated LSU squad and a plucky but unimpressive Kentucky team.

Oh, and Missouri is 0-2 so far on the road.

South Carolina has won three of four recent matchups (though Missouri won last year). The best player on either side is almost certainly South Carolina running back Kevin Harris, who has 916 all-purpose yards and 14 touchdowns already in seven games. He did not see action against Missouri as a freshman, but boy, the Gamecocks are sure to let him loose this year.

https://twitter.com/BarstoolUofSC/status/1327810249399660544?s=20

The home team is 4-1 against the spread in the past five meetings, but we’re looking for a little more than that out of South Carolina.

Pick: South Carolina Moneyline (+198)

Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh Odds

Strength vs Strength

Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech are both 4-4 this year. They are also 4-4, historically, against one another. This might seem like a boring matchup without much intrigue.

But hold on just a second — everyone loves a battle that pits strength against strength. In this matchup, that means the Hokies’ rushing attack (262.8 yards per game, eighth in NCAA) versus the Panthers’ rushing defense (78.8 yards allowed per game, second in NCAA). The winner of the battle in the trenches is almost certainly going to come out on top.

SirVocea Dennis continues to produce at an incredible rate this season.

7 Tackles, 3 TFL, 2 Sacks#H2P • @Sirvocea pic.twitter.com/VxKNKYIzoG

— Pitt Football (@Pitt_FB) November 8, 2020

What makes Pittsburgh enticing, then, is the hamstring injury that has recently plagued Virginia Tech star Khalil Herbert.

The Kansas transfer has 974 scrimmage yards (including 8.1 yards per carry), but only received nine touches last week as he works back from injury.

Fuente said RB Khalil Herbert felt good last weekend and didn't have any setbacks. Said he hopes he can practice more this week but knows how fickle hamstrings can be. #Hokies

— Andy Bitter (@AndyBitterVT) November 16, 2020

Reports from Blacksburg say that Herbert is trending in the right direction, but hamstring injuries can be tricky. There’s a fair chance his touches are limited again this weekend, which could be all Pittsburgh needs to secure a win.

Pick: Pittsburgh Moneyline (+134)