2023 Pac-12 Conference Preview & Predictions – Can USC Get Over the Hump?

• USC is favored to win the Pac-12 title in final season of the conference as we know it
• The Trojans are +200 to win the league, ahead Oregon (+320), Washington (+340) and Utah (+550)
• Read below for an analysis and a prediction of the 2023 Pac-12 season

USC is the favorite to win the Pac-12 championship in coach Lincoln Riley’s second year, the Trojans’ final season in a league that began to splinter when USC and UCLA bolted to the Big 12 for 2024. USC junior quarterback Caleb Williams passed for 4,734  yards last season and is a +500 favorite to win his second straight Heisman Trophy.

Contenders Oregon (+320) and Washington (+340) are led by fellow 2022 transfer quarterbacks Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr, respectively. Nix threw for 3,593 yards and Penix threw for 4,641 in their first seasons out west. Utah (+550) returns two-year starting quarterback Cameron Rising.

2023 Pac-12 Title Odds

The Trojans have an implied win probability of 33.3 percent to take their first conference title since 2017, according to the moneyline. Oregon has an implied win probability of 23.8 percent and Washington is right behind at 22.7 percent. Two-time defending champion Utah has a 15.4 percent probability to win the title. All four return their starting quarterback.

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Pac-12 Favorite USC Has Questions

Driven by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Williams, USC is the betting favorite to win the Pac-12 title in its final season of existence, but the Trojans have some work to do to live up to that billing. While the Trojans were third in Division I in total offense with 506.6 yards per game a year ago, they were 106th in total defense (423.9 yards) and 94th in scoring defense (29.2 points).

USC led Division I with a plus-22 turnover margin a year ago, a stat that seldom translates from season to season.

Why is USC QB Caleb Williams projected to go No. 1 overall?

Insane arm talent pic.twitter.com/flQjhx8Boy

— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) August 5, 2023

The Trojans will be double-digit favorites in their first six games before facing Notre Dame in South Bend on Oct. 14, after which the schedule stiffens to include home games against Utah and Washington around a trip to Oregon.

The Conference of Quarterbacks

The Pac-12’s going-away party will include some of the best quarterbacks in Division I. Williams opened as the +500 favorite to win the Heisman, Penix (+1600) is the seventh choice and Nix (+1800) is the ninth. The ACC is the only other conference with as many as two of the top nine preseason Heisman candidates, Florida State’s Jordan Travis (+1200) and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik (+1400).

CFB 2023 RETURNING TOTAL QBR LEADERS
1 Jalon Daniels/Kansas 90.0
2 Bo Nix/Oregon 87.0
3 Caleb Williams/USC 86.5
4 Jordan Travis/Florida State 85.3
5 Cameron Rising/Utah 82.9
6 Drake Maye/North Carolina 82.7
7 Michael Penix Jr/Washington 81.8
8 Frank Harris/UTSA 80.6
9 JJ… pic.twitter.com/yJUiHL4HvO

— CFB Focus 🏈 (@cffmwachsman) August 7, 2023

That list does not include Rising, who has led Utah to two consecutive Pac-12 titles after taking over as the starter three games into the 2021 season. Penix and Williams were 2-3 in passing yards in Division I last season, and Williams led Division I with 42 touchdown passes. Williams was fifth in passing efficiency and Nix was seventh.

Williams was injured early in the Trojans’ 47-24 loss to Utah in the 2022 title game, and Rising was hurt in the Utes’ 35-21 loss to Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Rising, recovering from a torn ACL, opened fall camp practicing “with limitations.”

Dissecting the Schedule

Pac-12 teams play nine conference games apiece, and the two teams with the best records meet in the championship game. UCLA gets off the lightest, missing both Oregon and Washington, but the Bruins do not appear to be a particularly potent challenger after losing quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and running back Zach Charbonnet.

Washington gets Oregon and Utah at home, and the Huskies will be favored in their first five before meeting the Ducks on Oct. 14 after both teams’ bye week. USC misses darkhorse contender Oregon State, which added former Clemson underachiever DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback. Oregon also plays Utah on the road.

The Utes have the most difficult nonconference schedule, opening against Florida and at Baylor, and also and play USC, Washington and Oregon State on the road. That’s likely a reason they are lower than USC in the CFB win totals.

Pac-12 Prediction

While USC can argue it would have made the CFP but for Williams’ hamstring injury in the Pac-12 title game, a lot of things went right for the Trojans last year — plus-22 turnover margin, a schedule that missed both Washington and Oregon. The Trojans’ defense will be tested even further by Penix and Nix this season.

Penix excelled in first-year coach Kalen DeBoer’s system a year ago, and top Huskies’ receiver Rome Odunze is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Nix and 1,000-yard rusher Bucky Irving give the Ducks another productive group on that side of the ball. Utah traditionally plays the best defense in the conference, but the schedule and Rising’s recovery are issues.

Pick: Washington (+340)