Air Force vs Louisville Odds and Picks for 2021 First Responder Bowl

• Louisville is a 1.5-point favorite over Air Force in the First Responder Bowl on Tuesday, December 28th
•  The Cardinals put up 450 yards of total offense per game in 2021, while the Falcons allowed only 288 yards per game, fifth in the country,
• See the odds, spread and pick for the Frisco Football Classic below

The Louisville Cardinals (6-6, 4-4 ACC) – who are led by quarterback Malik Cunningham and his 37 total touchdowns this season – take on the Air Force Falcons (9-3, 6-2 MWC) on Tuesday in Dallas. Kickoff is set for 3:15 pm ET at Gerald J Ford Stadium on ESPN.

Scott Satterfield’s team beat a UCF squad 42-35 back on Sept. 17 that just knocked off Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl for the first time in program history. But outside of that victory over three months ago, the Cardinals don’t own any significant wins (unless you count a 62-22 demolition of a woeful Duke group as “significant”). Meanwhile, Troy Calhoun’s crew had a solid season, only losing to the two division winners in the Mountain West (Utah State and San Diego State) and Army in overtime. All three losses were by one score.

The Cardinals are slight favorites against the Falcons, who lead the nation in rushing and time of possession.

Air Force vs Louisville Odds

Odds as of  December 27th at DraftKings

In Malik We Trust

It’s not like Louisville can’t or doesn’t throw – it averages 239 yards per game through the air – but it’s at its best when quarterback Malik Cunningham and the rushing attack get rolling. He led team in rushing with 968 yards with 19 touchdowns on the ground, to go along with 18 touchdown passes. His signature performance this season was against the Blue Devils, when the junior ran for a whopping 224 yards.

Louisville QB Malik Cunningham tonight vs. Duke:

— Passing: 302 yards and 5 TD
— Rushing: 224 yards and 2 TD

Second player in FBS history with 300+ pass yards and 200+ rush yards in a game, joining Washington's Marques Tuiasosopo (1999 vs. Stanford).pic.twitter.com/M30pYAkLjQ

— Kendall Baker (@kendallbaker) November 19, 2021

Air Force’s defense has seen plenty of running quarterbacks in practice, but Cunningham is a tough matchup for any defense.

Defensively, UL isn’t awful against the run. But it’s not a brick wall, either. Kentucky gashed its in-state rival to the tune of 362 yards on the ground. Obviously, the Falcons are going to run, then run some more.

Air Force averages an FBS-best 341 yards per game on the ground and holds the ball for close to 37 minutes per game. Third-down conversions will be critical Tuesday. Calhoun’s group converts at a 44% rate (30th), while Satterfield’s team averages 39% (74th).

Options are Good

With primary running back Brad Roberts accounting for nearly 1,300 yards on the ground and quarterback Haaziq Daniels adding around 700 more, Air Force’s triple-option is formidable. The Roberts-Daniels duo combined for 22 rushing touchdowns as well.

One more game to put in the work 💪

This season's rushing tracker presented by @perkinsmotors pic.twitter.com/QyDo0MUlqu

— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) December 2, 2021

Meantime, the Falcon defense has been outstanding all year long – allowed 21 points or fewer to everyone but Utah State and Nevada. A big reason why? They don’t let the other side have the ball.

But Air Force didn’t face a whole slew of high-powered offenses, either. Carson Strong and the Wolf Pack lit up the Academy’s pass defense to the tune of 351 yards (in a game the Falcons won 41-39). The Aggies exceeded that total, chucking it for 448 yards through the air in a 49-45 win over Air Force.

The Falcons didn’t play a Power Five team this season, and it certainly didn’t see an offense with the high-end weapons Louisville possesses.

First Responder Bowl Best Bet

No matter how much preparation Louisville puts in defending the option, it’s impossible to simulate the precision and quickness of what Air Force does. That said, the Cardinals have a way of making teams play at their level.

Air Force’s defense didn’t face a who’s who of offenses, and now it has to face a Cardinal attack that should bring a good combination of balance and explosion to overcome the consistency on the other side.

UL is favored for a reason here. While Air Force is vying for its fourth 10-win season under Calhoun, the Cardinals are more battle-tested. That’s why I like them in this spot.

• Pick: Louisville -1.5 (-110)