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Alabama vs Miami Odds, Lines and Best Bet

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Updated Sep 7, 2021 · 1:06 PM PDT

Nick Saban celebrates a victory
FILE - Alabama head coach Nick Saban and his team react at the end of the Cotton Bowl NCAA college football semifinal playoff game against Michigan State in Arlington, Texas, in this Thursday, Dec. 31, 2015, file photo. Alabama won 38-0 to advance to the championship game. Saban's dominating run at Alabama is more than just wins and championships. He's also ruined the careers of many of his fellow SEC coaches and cost the league's other 13 schools more than $100 million in buyouts -- all in search of someone who can knock the game's greatest coach from his perch.(AP Photo/LM Otero, File)
  • #1 Alabama is a 19.5-point favorite over #14 Miami (FL) Saturday (September 4th, 3:30 pm ET) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
  • The Crimson Tide are 10-0 in neutral site games under Nick Saban
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Reigning National Champion and #1 Alabama kicks off its 2021 season Saturday (September 4th), and it won’t take long for us to find out if they’re once again the real deal. The Crimson Tide open against #14 Miami in Atlanta, GA, one of two top-15 opponents they’ll face in the first three weeks.

Alabama vs Miami (FL) Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Alabama Crimson Tide -1125 -19.5 (-110) O 61 (-110)
Miami Hurricanes +700 +19.5 (-110) U 61 (-110)

Odds as of  Sept. 2nd at DraftKings.

Alabama opened as a 16.5-point favorite, but that number has moved 3 points in the Tide’s favor. The game features a total of 61, down 3.5 points from the opener, while wagers on both the spread and total are thus far very chalky.

76% of the spread bets are on Bama, while 69% of the total wagers are on the over.

Kick-off is set for 3:30 pm ET on Saturday inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with ABC providing the tv coverage.

DraftKings Hammer the Over Promo for Clemson vs Georgia Already Has Total Down to 4.5 Points
Read More

Crimson Tide Loaded With Talent

Alabama has won six National Championships since 2009, and on paper, appear destined to make yet another trip to the College Football Playoff. They lost eight players to the top-40 picks in this year’s NFL Draft, but there are blue chippers up and down this roster.

Eight starting defenders return from a unit that ranked sixth in defensive SP+ last season, including elite pass rushers Christian Harris and Will Anderson Jr. They added Tennessee transfer Henry To’o To’o to even further strengthen their pass rush, while top corner Josh Jobe allowed a minuscule 16.3 QBR while in coverage.

On the other side of the ball, Mac Jones is gone, which means the Bryce Young era will officially begin. The No. 1 QB recruit from 2020 is a dual threat talent, with pinpoint accuracy, and will have plenty of returning playmakers to work with.

Brian Robinson Jr and Jase McClellan will take over the running back duties, after averaging 5.3 and 10.7 yards per carry last season respectfully. Bama’s second leading receiver John Metchie III also returns, and the team brought in Jameson Williams from Ohio State, who averaged 17.7 yards per reception with the Buckeyes.

In other words, expect another year of Alabama dominance.

Can Miami Keep Pace?

The Hurricanes meanwhile, enter 2021 with high hopes, in large part due to stability at the QB position. D’Eriq King, fresh off recovering from an ACL tear, is set for his sixth season of college ball, and was outstanding in 2020. He completed 64.1% of his passes for 2,686 yards, and 23 TD, while rushing for 538 yards and four scores.

King finished as the fifth highest graded college QB by Pro Football Focus’ metrics, and like Young, has plenty of returning firepower at his disposal. Miami’s top-two running backs from 2020, as well as three of their top-four receivers are back. They also added Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo, who averaged 15.5 yards per reception in three years as a Sooner.

Defensively, 16 of 18 players who played 200 or more snaps last season return, while the program added a few key transfers to go along with their incoming top recruits.

The biggest question will be can they stop the run? The Hurricanes were gashed on the ground last season, yielding 175 rushing yards per game, which spells trouble against an Alabama team that may want to lean on its ground attack to ease Young in.

Also of concern is how the Miami defense finished 2020. They allowed 99 points over their final two games to North Carolina and Oklahoma State.

Alabama vs Miami Pick

The Crimson Tide have a long track record of success in neutral site games, particularly under Nick Saban. They’re 10-0 at neutral site venues during his tenure, and have been especially dominant lately.

Their average margin of victory over their past four neutral site games is 29.5 points, and the competition hasn’t exactly been soft. They’ve routed Virginia Tech, Florida State, Louisville and Duke over that stretch, and the Seminoles are the only team to stay within three touchdowns.

Alabama is also known for starting fast, something we should expect on Saturday. Last year they outscored their opponents 153-44 in the first quarter, and I like targeting them at -6 in the opening frame against the Hurricanes.

Pick: Alabama First Quarter -6 (-115)

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