Longshots Baylor (+1400), Minnesota (+1600), SMU (+2000) Still on the Board in 4-Team Playoff Odds
- Five teams are currently receiving minus odds to reach the four-team playoff
- Only one non-Power Five school has made the CFP since its inception in 2014
- Alabama is the only team to make the CFP all five seasons
In two months, the sixth installment of the College Football Playoff begins. The four-team format has its benefits, but there is still controversy every year about which teams make it in and which don’t.
There always seem to be more deserving teams than playoff spots. Case and point: the current College Football Playoff odds feature five teams with minus odds. The CFP futures board was as follows heading into Week 9.
College Football Playoff Odds: Week 9 Update
| Team | Odds to Make CFP | Odds to Miss CFP |
|---|---|---|
| Clemson | -300 | +250 |
| Alabama | -230 | +190 |
| Ohio State | -190 | +165 |
| Oklahoma | -170 | +150 |
| LSU | -150 | +130 |
| Georgia | +290 | -350 |
| Penn State | +450 | -600 |
| Oregon | +500 | -650 |
| Wisconsin | +1000 | -1500 |
| Utah | +1000 | -1500 |
| Florida | +1000 | -1500 |
| Auburn | +1000 | -1500 |
| Baylor | +1400 | -2500 |
| Minnesota | +1600 | -3300 |
| SMU | +2000 | -5000 |
| Appalachian State | +4000 | -15000 |
Odds taken Oct. 24
On the flip side, there are four teams with particularly long odds: Baylor (+1400), Minnesota (+1600), SMU (+2000) and Appalachian State (+4000). They’re all undefeated and would pay out handsomely if they actually made the field. But do any of them have a real chance to get in?
Where They Stand Right Now
The first iteration of the CFP rankings (which decides the playoff teams) is still a couple weeks away, so for now the best way to see where teams stand is to review the AP Top 25 poll.
Just two weeks from tonight, we’ll be bracing ourselves for the first set of 2019 #CFBPlayoff selection committee rankings to be released!
Who’s in? 👀
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) October 23, 2019
In the AP Poll, Baylor (7-0) ranks highest of the underdogs at No. 14, followed by No. 16 SMU (8-0), No. 17 Minnesota (7-0) and No. 21 Appalachian State (6-0). There is plenty of time for those rankings to improve, but for now, these teams are playing from behind.
Power Five Bias
In five years of the CFP, only one of a possible 20 berths (i.e. five percent) has come from outside the Power Five conferences. That was Notre Dame last season, a team that went 12-0 with four wins over ranked opponents.
.@NDFootball sealed its place in the CFB Playoffs with a win against USC capping a perfect season 💯#GoIrish 🍀 #uNDefeated pic.twitter.com/tpaErssqym
— ESPN Player (@espnplayer) November 26, 2018
This is a major factor for SMU and Appalachian State, neither of which play in a Power Five conference. Their schedules simply are not strong enough — they only play one Power-5 school apiece — so even if they remain unbeaten they won’t be able to sway CFP voters.
The UCF Yardstick
If you don’t believe that claim, consider UCF’s unbeaten squad from 2017. They did everything right, winning every game — including two against Power Five schools — by an average of more than 24 points.
Still, the voters kept them out, forcing them to settle for a Peach Bowl victory over No. 6 Auburn. It was clear evidence that Power Five schools are given the benefit of the doubt by voters, and it’s safe to say some people weren’t too pleased about that.
Temple Interim coach @coachedfoley talking College Football Playoff.
"How can we have a Nation Champion if only half the teams have a shot at winning it…"
"You can't tell me @UCF_Football wasn't the best team in the country last season… "#ktalblitz @IndyBowl @Temple_FB pic.twitter.com/7WLfw9VRn2— Tim Owens (@TimOwensTV) December 26, 2018
Who Has A Playoff Path?
That leaves Minnesota and Baylor as the big-time underdogs who have playoff paths. If Minnesota wins out, it will likely face Ohio State or Penn State in the Big Ten championship game — and the winner would almost certainly get in.
Still here. https://t.co/OhhFqKQZ8m
— Minnesota Football (@GopherFootball) October 22, 2019
The same is true for Baylor, which is on a potential crash course to face either Oklahoma or Texas in the Big 12 championship game if all goes well. Baylor does have to face both of those schools in the regular season first, though.
If they emerge unscathed, Baylor would be a virtual lock to get in.
— Matt Rhule (@CoachMattRhule) October 20, 2019
Of course, it’s one thing to have a playoff path. It’s quite another thing to make it through successfully. There are too many juggernauts standing in the way of Minnesota and Baylor to make a CFP berth realistic.
Their odds — +1400 for Baylor and +1600 for Minnesota — carry implied probabilities of 6.7% and 5.9%, respectively, which is overly optimistic.
A more interesting high-value bet is Oregon (+500), the Pac-12 favorite whose only loss came in a tight game against Auburn. If they finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champion, it’s about a coin-flip that they’ll get in. And that’s a much more likely scenario than Baylor or Minnesota running their gauntlets unbeaten.
Jordan Horrobin is a sports journalist whose MLB, NHL, NFL and NCAA work has appeared in outlets such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press and more. He is currently based in Toronto, also working as a contributor for Forbes.com and a freelance editor for Sportsnet.
