App State vs Troy Prediction, Picks & Odds for Sun Belt Championship Game 2023

• App State battles Troy for the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday
• The latest Sun Belt odds favor the Trojans by 6 points at Memorial Stadium
• Read below for App State vs Troy prediction, picks and odds for the Sun Belt Championship

App State vs Troy has produced some very memorable college football games over the years, and we could get another exciting chapter to this rivalry in 2023. The Mountaineers and Trojans will faceoff for the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday, December 2nd.

The latest Sun Belt Championship odds favor Troy by just around a touchdown at Veteran Memorial Stadium, with the over/under offered at 52.5 points. The Trojans are seeking their second straight Sun Belt Conference championship.

Let’s get into our App State vs Troy prediction, as we break down the betting odds and analyze both sides.

App State vs Troy Odds – Sun Belt Championship

In the 2023 Sun Belt Championship odds, the Mountaineers are 6-point underdogs, while being listed as +196 on the moneyline. As -240 favorites, the Trojans have a 71% implied chance to win the game.

This game will be televised at 7:00 pm ET on Saturday, with ESPN carrying the broadcast. There are thunderstorms in the forecast, likely affecting the game dynamics.

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Odds as of November 30, 2023, at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars promo for November to bet on the Sun Belt Championship.

App State vs Troy History & Betting Trends

Appalachian State has won seven of the eight meetings since joining the Sun Belt in 2014, including last year’s victory on a 53-yard Hail Mary. Current Troy QB Gunnar Watson played in the game, throwing for 302 yards with no TDs and one interception.

Troy covered the spread last season as a 14-point underdog, making the two teams an even 4-4 ATS in this rivalry. Straight up is another story, however, as App State has won seven of eight all-time meetings against the Trojans.

The Trojans have been a better covering team this season, posting a 7-5 ATS mark, while the Mountaineers have gone 6-5-1 against the numbers. The sharp money is on App State, however, as the Mountaineers are drawing 81% of spread handle with only 61% of wagers.

Mountaineers Betting Analysis

App State enters the 2023 Sun Belt Championship Game boasting an 8-4 record, including a 6-2 mark in conference play. The Mountaineers have strung together some impressive wins lately, including a 26-23 victory over JMU on ESPN College GameDay a couple of weeks back.

Right back where we belong. #GoApp pic.twitter.com/vcBpXJB0rc

— App State Football (@AppState_FB) November 26, 2023

The Mountaineers are led on offense by QB Joey Aguilar, who has completed 63.4% of his passes for 3,268 yards and 33 touchdowns with only nine interceptions. His favorite target is Kaedin Robinson (717 yds), while RB Nate Noel (787 yds) is the leader of the backfield.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Mountaineers have struggled, allowing 384 yards per game (73rd nationally). They’ve been most vulnerable against the run, surrendering an average of 170 yards per game on the ground, which places them outside the top-100 in FBS.

Trojans Betting Analysis

Troy comes into the Sun Belt Title game sporting a 10-2 record, plus an impressive 7-1 mark in conference play. The Trojans haven’t lost a game since October and have taken down Army, UTSA, and Texas State among others during their seven-game winning streak.

Leading the Troy offense is quarterback Gunnar Watson, who has thrown for 3,136 yards and 26 touchdowns with only five interceptions this season. Watson has three receivers with over 500 yards in Jabre Barber, Chris Lewis and Deshon Stoudemire.

𝘼𝙇𝙇-𝙎𝙐𝙉 𝘽𝙀𝙇𝙏 𝙏𝙃𝙄𝙍𝘿 𝙏𝙀𝘼𝙈

Congrats @gunnar_18 !#RiseToBuild | #OneTROY ⚔️🏈 pic.twitter.com/T994Bi6FjC

— Troy Trojans Football 8x⚔️ (@TroyTrojansFB) November 30, 2023

Troy is more reliant on their passing game over their rushing attack, but they do have a talented running back in junior Kimani Vidal. The four-year starter has rushed the ball 254 times this season for 1,349 yards and nine touchdowns.

Defense is where the Trojans have really shined this season, allowing just 300 yards per game, which is 12th best in the country. They are only allowing 104 rushing yards per game while ranking top-30 in passing yards allowed (197 ypg).

App State vs Troy Prediction

This is one of the more interesting college football conference championship games to predict on Saturday, as the records don’t really tell the whole story. App State’s four losses this season have come by a combined 19 points, and they haven’t lost a game since late-October.

Some sharp bettors think the Mountaineers can pull the upset here, as the line has come down a few points after opening at -7.5. The weather is also really important if you’re considering betting the “over”, as thunderstorms are forecasted with 64% to 81% chance of rain during the game.

Given the weather forecast, this game is likely to be won in the trenches. Noel, App State’s leading and experienced rusher, will be a difference maker, and the Mountaineers’ improved rush defense, allowing only 97.8 average rushing yards in their last four games, will come up big against Troy’s ground attack.

Picks:

• App State +6 (-110)
• Under 52.5 Points (-110)