Army vs Air Force Odds, Picks and Preview
- Air Force is a 3-point home favorite over Army on Saturday (November 6th, 11:30 am ET) at Choctaw Stadium, in Arlington, TX
- The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
It’s hard to believe that in the year 2021, there are two college football programs running the ball at an 87%+ clip. As luck would have it, those two teams, Army and Air Force, will look to run all over each other on Saturday (November 6th).
The matchup between the two service academies will be their 56th meeting all-time, with the Falcons holding a 37-17-1 advantage. For just the fourth time in the rivalry, the game will be played at a neutral site, as Choctaw Stadium, in Arlington, Texas will play host.
Army vs Air Force Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Army Black Knights | +125 | +3 (-120) | O 37 (+120) |
| Air Force Falcons | -145 | -3 (+100) | U 37 (-100) |
Odds as of Nov. 4th at DraftKings.
Air Force opened up as a 3-point favorite, in a game that features a minuscule total of 37. The contest will kickoff at 11:30 am ET, with CBS providing the coverage nationwide. The forecast currently projects a perfect day for football, as sunshine and 70 degree temperatures are on tap.
Falcons Are a Force
Air Force (6-2, 3-2 MWC) enters play winners of four of its last five, although they did taste defeat last time out. The Falcons were edged out by #22 San Diego State 20-14, marking their ninth straight loss to the Aztecs.
For the first time all season, Air Force was held under 200 yards rushing as the San Diego State stout run defense yielded only 192 yards on the ground. That’s 126 yards less than the Falcons’ FBS leading 318.4 rushing yards per game, as they’re just one of two programs (along with Army) who rack up more than 250 yards on the ground per outing.
🔜#MondayMotivation | #BeatArmy pic.twitter.com/JWFd43Mzab
— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) November 1, 2021
Air Force averages 63.8 rushing attempts per contest, compared to only 8 passing attempts. They’re racking up 29.2 points per game, and are among the league leaders in scoring defense.
The Falcons are holding enemy offenses to 16.8 points per game, the seventh lowest mark in the country. Opposing QB’s are passing for just 181 yards per outing, while opposing RB’s are racking up only 3.6 yards per carry.
𝐵𝑒𝓉𝓉𝑒𝓇, 𝓯𝓪𝓼𝓽𝓮𝓻, 𝓼𝓽𝓻𝓸𝓷𝓰𝓮𝓻😤💪 pic.twitter.com/kkObenF70F
— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) October 28, 2021
Of course, they’ve yet to face a rushing offense as potent as Army’s, however they did hold Navy, who runs the ball at an 83% clip, to just 36 rushing yards on 34 attempts earlier this season.
Army In a Rut
The Black Knights meanwhile, enter play losers of three straight. Last time out, they lost a wild shootout to #16 Wake Forest, putting up 56 points but still falling by two scores. Army coughed up 638 yards to the Demon Deacons, including 458 yards through the air. Offensively, they ran for a season-high 416 yards on 70 total attempts.
The Black Knights average 312.3 rushing yards per game, and throw even fewer passes than Air Force. Army averages only 7.4 passes per game, and have multiple outings in 2021 where they threw it fewer than five times.
B ⚫️
W ⚪️
B ⚫️#GoArmy | #LastoftheHard | #BEATairforce pic.twitter.com/2c2fVKwvM9— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 4, 2021
The 56 points they put up is 22 more than they average normally, while the defense had been playing very well until this recent setback. The Black Knights had held three of their previous four opponents to 21 points or less, in large part thanks to some stout play in the trenches.
Army is allowing just 92.6 rushing yards and 3.6 yards per carry per contest, although those numbers are sure to increase after Saturday’s tilt.
Army vs Air Force Pick
Oddsmakers are certainly expecting a low scoring, run heavy approach from both teams that will drain the clock and limit the amount of points scored. Despite each program’s commitment to the run, an over/under of 37 points is simply too low.
10 of the past 11 meetings between these two have cleared 38 points, and with both teams featuring high scoring offenses, this one should as well.
https://youtu.be/TxdE_xFMCR8
Just two of the Black Knights’ seven games have failed to produce 40 points, while their contest versus Wake last time out produced 77 points in the second half alone.
The Falcons meanwhile, have seen six of their eight games exceed 40 points, including five of their past six.
Pick: Over 37 (-120)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
